休耕对农户非农就业的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.02.07

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着农村剩余劳动力锐减及劳动力成本的不断攀升,中国亟需提高农业生产技术与转变经营方式,以释放更多农村劳动力。作为近年来在全国范围内快速推进的可持续农业经营方式,休耕是否有助于促进劳动力非农转移就业,已成为亟待解答的现实问题。为此,本文基于中国西北休耕试点区1240户农户的实地调查数据,综合运用多变量Probit、SUR回归、Heckman两步法以及工具变量法等方法,从就业决策、就业选择、就业强度以及就业收入4个方面,较全面系统地检验了休耕对农户非农就业的影响,并进一步考察了影响的异质性。研究结果表明：①总体上,休耕能提高农户非农就业的概率,但作用空间十分有限,且主要使农户倾向于选择非农经营;休耕对农户非农就业强度的影响主要是提高了其非农就业时间,而非就业人数,农户外地务工人数之所以增加只是休耕促使其家庭内部劳动力由本地务工转向外地务工的结果;休耕有利于增加农户非农总收入、外地务工收入和非农经营收入,这主要通过提高相应的非农就业时间来实现。②异质性分析表明,休耕参与程度对农户非农就业具有正向促进作用,但只有将耕地全部参与休耕才能显著提高农户非农就业概率,只有将家庭绝大多数耕地参与休耕才能显著提高农户非农就业强度和收入;休耕有利于纯农户与I兼农户非农就业并增加非农收入,对II兼业农户无促进效果;休耕显著提高了劳动力高年龄组农户非农就业强度与收入,对劳动力低年龄组无影响,且劳动力高教育组农户非农就业效果明显高于低教育组。本文不仅有助于填补已有文献的不足,对完善休耕政策以推动农业劳动力非农转移就业也具有一定的经验参考价值。

关键词: 农地休耕, 农户非农就业, 就业选择, 就业强度, 就业收入, 工具变量, 西北休耕试点区

Abstract:

With the depletion of China’s surplus rural labor force, it is urgent to reform agricultural operations to release rural labor. Farmland fallow is a sustainable agricultural operation mode, and whether fallow can help promote the transfer of labor force to non-agricultural operations has become a practical issue. Based on the field survey data of 1240 households in the Northwest fallow pilot area, this study used the multivariate Probit, seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR), Heckman two-step, and instrumental variable methods to systematically examine the impact of fallow on off-farm employment from the aspects of employment decision making, employment choice, employment intensity, and employment income, and further investigated the heterogeneity of the impacts. The results show that: (1) Fallow can improve the probability of farmers’ off-farm employment, but the space of action is very limited, and the farmers tend to choose off-farm business. The impact of fallow on the intensity of farmers’ off-farm employment is mainly to increase the available time for off-farm work, and is not to increase the number of off-farm workers. The number of migrant workers increased only because fallow promoted the labor force in their families to shift from local off-farm employment to working outside the home area. Fallow is conducive to increasing farmers’ total off-farm income, migrant workers’ income, and off-farm business income, which is mainly achieved by making more time available for corresponding off-farm activities. (2) The heterogeneity analysis shows that the degree of fallow participation has a positive role in promoting farmers’ off-farm employment, but only when all the cultivated land of a household is involved in fallow can the off-farm employment probability of its members be significantly improved, and only when most of the cultivated land is involved in fallow can their off-farm employment intensity and income be improved. Fallow is beneficial for pure and type I part-time farmers’ off-farm employment probability and income; and it improves farmers’ off-farm employment intensity and income in the older age group, and has greater impact in the high education group than in the low education group.

Key words: farmland fallow, farmers’ off-farm employment, employment choice, employment intensity, employment income, instrumental variable, Northwest fallow pilot area

谢先雄, 邓悦, 刘霁瑶, 卢玮楠, 赵敏娟. 休耕对农户非农就业的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(2): 280-292.

XIE Xianxiong, DENG Yue, LIU Jiyao, LU Weinan, ZHAO Minjuan. Impact of fallow on off-farm employment of farmers[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(2): 280-292.

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非农就业选项	总样本（A）	休耕组（B）	非休耕组（C）	休耕组与非休耕组比例之差（B-C）
非农就业/%	77.06	77.85	76.28	1.57*
非农经营/%	4.22	5.12	3.31	1.81*
本地务工/%	39.32	39.17	39.46	-0.29
外地务工/%	45.28	45.12	45.43	-0.31

非农就业人数/时间	总样本均值（A）	休耕组均值（B）	非休耕组均值（C）	休耕组与非休耕组均值之差（B-C）
非农就业总人数/人	1.337	1.353	1.321	0.031
非农经营人数/人	0.061	0.069	0.053	0.016
本地务工人数/人	0.605	0.596	0.613	-0.016
外地务工人数/人	0.671	0.687	0.655	0.032*
非农就业总时间/月	12.394	12.811	11.975	0.835**
非农经营时间/月	0.602	0.744	0.459	0.285*
本地务工时间/月	4.975	5.025	4.923	0.101
外地务工时间/月	6.816	7.040	6.592	0.448**
样本数/个	1208	605	603	-

非农就业选项	总样本均值（A）	休耕组均值（B）	非休耕组均值（C）	休耕组与非休耕组均值之差（B-C）
非农就业总收入/万元	4.249	4.422	4.075	0.347*
非农经营收入/万元	0.226	0.304	0.147	0.156**
本地务工收入/万元	1.542	1.528	1.556	-0.028
外地务工收入/万元	2.480	2.590	2.370	0.219**
样本数/个	1208	605	603	-

变量类型	变量名称	变量说明	休耕组均值（A）	非休耕组均值（B）	两组均值之差（A-B）
个体特征	性别	户主性别：男=1,女=0	0.780	0.802	-0.022
	年龄	户主实际年龄/岁	51.492	52.122	-0.630
	受教育程度	户主实际受教育年限/年	5.833	5.817	0.015
	户主自评健康	户主自评身体健康状况：1=很不好,2=不好,3=一般,4=比较好,5=非常好	3.218	3.306	-0.088*
	兄弟姐妹数量	户主兄弟姐妹个数/人	4.404	4.444	-0.039
家庭特征	家庭规模	家庭总人口数量/人	5.887	5.799	0.088
	劳动力人数	家庭总劳动力个数/人	2.763	2.882	-0.118
	家庭赡抚养占比	家庭赡养和抚养人数占总人口数比重	0.356	0.336	0.020*
	是否村干部户	家中是否有成员为村干部：0=否,1=是	0.071	0.069	0.001
	是否患慢性病户	家中是否有人患慢性病：0=否,1=是	0.442	0.407	0.035
	经营耕地面积	家庭实际经营耕地总面积/亩	9.824	14.050	-4.226***
村庄特征	村道路交通情况	所在行政村的道路交通条件：1=很不好,2=不好,3=一般,4=比较好,5=很好	3.833	3.759	0.073*
村庄特征	村相对收入状况	所在行政村人均收入邻村的情况：1=收入很低,2=收入较低,3=一般,4=收入较高,5=收入很高	2.680	2.759	-0.078

	非农就业	非农经营	本地务工	外地务工	非农就业	非农经营	本地务工	外地务工
	OLS	OLS	OLS	OLS	二元Probit	多变量Probit
是否休耕	0.011*(0.006)	0.020*(0.012)	-0.030(0.028)	0.030(0.027)	0.034*(0.019)	0.022*(0.012)	-0.030(0.028)	0.023(0.027)
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
R²/χ²（p值）	0.3660	0.0250	0.1119	0.1642	0.4515	470.33(0.000)
无同期相关检验	-	-	-	-	-	chi²(3)=283.926(Pr = 0.000)
样本数	1208	1208	1208	1208	1208		1208