资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (1): 122-133.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.01.10

• 能源资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国能耗模式演变及其对经济发展的影响

赵娜娜1(), 王志宝1(), 李鸿梅2   

  1. 1.山东师范大学地理与环境学院,济南 250358
    2.菏泽医学专科学校,菏泽 274000
  • 收稿日期:2019-12-30 修回日期:2020-07-10 出版日期:2021-01-25 发布日期:2021-03-25
  • 作者简介:赵娜娜,女,山东章丘人,硕士研究生,研究方向为经济地理、城市与区域规划。E-mail: 2235907085@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金青年项目(16CJY022)

Change of energy consumption pattern and its impact on economic development in China

ZHAO Nana1(), WANG Zhibao1(), LI Hongmei2   

  1. 1. College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China
    2. Heze Medical College, Heze 274000, China
  • Received:2019-12-30 Revised:2020-07-10 Online:2021-01-25 Published:2021-03-25

摘要:

基于投入-产出理论,本文主要利用差异化的能源库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)来分析中国能耗模式演变及其对经济发展的影响,从而确定二者在不同阶段、类型的量化关系。结果发现:①中国能耗模式整体上经历了高能耗低增长—高能耗高增长—低能耗高增长的演变过程,但省(区、市)间时空差异明显,形成差异化的能源库兹涅茨曲线,大致分成6种演变类型;②各省(区、市)EKC起点不同,且演变过程中拐点的经济发展水平越高,能源强度越低,部分省(区、市)EKC存在明显的理论偏差,呈现出变异的EKC演变轨迹;③1953年以来,能源消耗仍然是推动中国经济发展的主导因素,但技术进步作用不断加强。目前,在能源消耗和技术进步的影响下,中国形成了低能耗高增长消费模式,但技术进步贡献率还不明显。未来,技术进步所带来的经济增长效应将逐渐扩大,而能源消耗所带来的经济增长效应将保持在稳定状态。

关键词: 能耗模式, 经济发展方式, 能源库兹涅茨曲线, 影响机制, 中国

Abstract:

This study used differentiated energy Kuznets curve (EKC) to analyze the change of energy consumption pattern in provinces of China’s mainland and its impact on economic development, in order to determine the quantitative relationship in different stages. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) China’s energy consumption and economic growth changed from high energy consumption and low growth to high energy consumption and high growth, and to low energy consumption and high growth, but there are large spatial and temporal differences in various provinces, forming a differentiated EKC, which can be roughly divided into six types; (2) The starting points of EKC in different provinces and regions in China are different. The higher the economic development level of the turning point in the process, the lower the energy consumption intensity, and the EKC in some provinces clearly deviated from theoretical estimation, showing differentiated trajectories of EKC change; (3) Since 1953, energy consumption has been the dominant factor driving China’s economic development, but the role of technological progress continues to strengthen. In general, the low-energy and high-growth pattern was formed under the influence of energy consumption and technological progress, and technological progress’s contribution rate is currently low. In the future, the economic growth brought about by technological progress will gradually expand, and the economic growth due to energy consumption will remain stable.

Key words: energy consumption pattern, economic development model, energy Kuznets curve, mechanism of influence, China