资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (1): 40-56.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.01.04
收稿日期:
2019-11-29
修回日期:
2020-09-09
出版日期:
2021-01-25
发布日期:
2021-03-25
作者简介:
李子豪,男,河南郑州人,副教授,研究方向为环境经济、产业经济。E-mail: 基金资助:
Received:
2019-11-29
Revised:
2020-09-09
Online:
2021-01-25
Published:
2021-03-25
摘要:
雾霾治理作为“污染防治攻坚战”的重要内容,地方政府作为环境治理的核心主体,有效提升地方政府环境政策的治霾效果具有重要意义。从政府环境治理的政策工具差异、空间关联和门槛效应的3个视角出发,本文提出了地方政府环境治理降低雾霾污染的3个理论假说,并基于中国2003—2016年30个省(市、区)和2007—2016年217个城市数据,利用动态空间面板和动态面板门槛计量方法对相关理论假说进行检验。结果表明:①政策工具方面,多数类型的地方政府环境治理政策工具对雾霾污染均存在不同程度的抑制作用,具体来看,地方政府的环保立法和环保投资降低雾霾污染的效果更显著,而地方政府环保执法对雾霾污染的抑制作用不甚显著。②空间关联方面,周边地区不同类型的地方政府环境治理政策对本地雾霾污染的影响也存在较大差异,其中,邻近地区环保立法通过环保政策的协调成本上升加剧了本地雾霾污染;邻近地区的环保执法虽能降低本地雾霾污染,但效果却不显著;而邻近地区的环保投资通过雾霾治理的空间外溢能显著降低本地雾霾污染。③门槛效应方面,地方政府环境治理对雾霾污染的影响存在比较显著的门槛效应,当地区科技水平或城镇化水平较高时,地方政府环境治理能够有效地降低雾霾污染,反之则加剧雾霾污染。本文将政府环境治理细分为环保立法、执法与投资3种政策工具,细化了政府环境治理行为对雾霾污染的作用机制,为政府更进一步完善环境治理体系提供了科学依据。
李子豪, 袁丙兵. 地方政府的雾霾治理政策作用机制——政策工具、空间关联和门槛效应[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(1): 40-56.
LI Zihao, YUAN Bingbing. Environmental policy mechanism of local governments in the treatment of haze pollution:Policy tools, spatial correlations and threshold effects[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(1): 40-56.
表1
变量的描述性统计"
变量 | 单位 | 省(市、区)层面 | 地市层面 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
均值 | 最小值 | 最大值 | 标准差 | 均值 | 最小值 | 最大值 | 标准差 | |||
smog/SMOG | PM2.5/(μg/m3) | 31.89 | 4.81 | 81.98 | 16.67 | 38.95 | 7.12 | 86.74 | 16.28 | |
law/LAW | 环保立法/件 | 27.22 | 0.00 | 208.00 | 29.84 | 3.79 | 0.00 | 110.00 | 9.01 | |
enf | 执法案件/(例/人) | 0.53 | 0.01 | 5.95 | 0.62 | - | - | - | - | |
inv/INV | 环保占比/% | 3.00 | 0.85 | 6.73 | 1.08 | 2.96 | 0.13 | 31.82 | 2.19 | |
ey/EY | 人均GDP/万元 | 1.19 | 0.28 | 3.18 | 0.64 | 1.39 | 0.27 | 8.37 | 0.86 | |
sci/SCI | 科学技术支出占比/% | 1.53 | 0.22 | 7.20 | 1.31 | 1.64 | 0.07 | 20.68 | 1.44 | |
s/S | 二产占比/% | 46.98 | 19.26 | 61.50 | 7.94 | 50.18 | 14.95 | 90.97 | 10.49 | |
urb/URB | 城镇化/% | 50.48 | 13.89 | 89.60 | 14.58 | 52.53 | 7.08 | 100.00 | 18.81 | |
fdi/FDI | 外资存量占比/% | 15.32 | 0.79 | 78.83 | 13.41 | 26.73 | 0.00 | 168.35 | 28.18 | |
h/H | 人力资本/% | 8.64 | 6.04 | 12.30 | 0.99 | 1.24 | 0.40 | 4.48 | 0.52 | |
den/DEN | 人口密度/(人/km2) | 436.84 | 7.40 | 3826.2 | 630.11 | 482.68 | 21.00 | 2648.00 | 336.65 |
表2
政策工具差异与空间溢出效应估计"
变量 | 解释变量:执法案件数(enf) | 变量 | 解释变量:环保立法(law) | 变量 | 解释变量:环保财政支出(inv) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SDM模型 | DSDM模型 | SDM模型 | DSDM模型 | SDM模型 | DSDM模型 | |||
smogt-1 | 0.092** | smogt-1 | 0.109*** | smogt-1 | 0.103*** | |||
(2.56) | (2.78) | (2.67) | ||||||
enf | 0.163 | 0.246 | law | -0.021*** | -0.021*** | inv | -0.464* | -0.458* |
(0.63) | (0.94) | (-3.28) | (-3.25) | (-1.71) | (-1.66) | |||
ey | -7.276** | -5.556** | ey | -2.821** | -2.954*** | ey | -2.349* | -1.421* |
(-2.13) | (-2.06) | (-2.45) | (-2.73) | (-1.92) | (-1.73) | |||
ey2 | 2.106** | 1.581* | ey2 | 1.622* | 1.896* | ey2 | 1.039* | 1.219* |
(2.42) | (1.74) | (1.69) | (1.84) | (1.74) | (1.77) | |||
s | -0.037* | -0.029 | s | -0.028 | -0.043* | s | -0.155** | -0.149** |
(-1.86) | (-1.63) | (-1.54) | (-1.96) | (-2.39) | (-2.10) | |||
sci | -0.243* | -0.256* | sci | -0.225* | -0.203* | sci | -0.388** | -0.206 |
(-1.88) | (-1.92) | (-1.73) | (-1.70) | (-1.99) | (-1.52) | |||
urb | 0.016 | 0.064* | urb | 0.059* | 0.066* | urb | 0.130* | 0.117* |
(1.08) | (1.68) | (1.71) | (1.70) | (1.74) | (1.66) | |||
fdi | -0.040* | -0.065** | fdi | -0.017* | -0.015* | fdi | -0.071* | -0.070* |
(-1.68) | (-2.16) | (-1.68) | (-1.67) | (-1.92) | (-1.87) | |||
den | -0.002 | -0.002 | den | -0.006** | -0.005* | den | -0.013** | -0.015** |
(-0.82) | (-0.60) | (-1.99) | (-1.74) | (-2.29) | (-2.13) | |||
Wenf | -0.551 | -0.635 | Wlaw | 0.043*** | 0.043*** | Winv | -0.313* | -0.384* |
(-1.04) | (-1.19) | (3.79) | (3.81) | (-1.73) | (-1.77) | |||
Wey | -0.474* | -0.463* | Wey | -0.968* | -0.892* | Wey | -0.586* | -0.443 |
(-1.77) | (-1.67) | (-1.86) | (-1.67) | (-1.65) | (-1.45) | |||
Wey2 | 2.055* | 1.600* | Wey2 | 0.406 | 0.609 | Wey2 | 2.304 | 1.842 |
(1.82) | (1.75) | (1.29) | (1.43) | (1.15) | (0.79) | |||
Ws | -0.070 | -0.074 | Ws | -0.104* | -0.153** | Ws | -0.218** | -0.164* |
(-1.07) | (-1.09) | (-1.80) | (-2.48) | (-2.11) | (-1.68) | |||
Wsci | 0.354 | 0.563* | Wsci | 0.274 | 0.212 | Wsci | 0.441 | 0.506 |
(1.46) | (1.68) | (1.62) | (1.03) | (0.64) | (1.22) | |||
Wurb | -0.017 | -0.014 | Wurb | -0.069 | -0.213** | Wurb | -0.507* | -0.435* |
(-0.30) | (-0.28) | (-0.84) | (-2.22) | (-1.93) | (-1.67) | |||
Wfdi | 0.044 | 0.175** | Wfdi | 0.052 | 0.045 | Wfdi | 0.039 | 0.014 |
(0.58) | (1.97) | (0.77) | (0.77) | (0.37) | (0.12) | |||
Wden | -0.010* | -0.005 | Wden | -0.005 | -0.004 | Wden | -0.011 | -0.013 |
(-1.77) | (-0.88) | (-0.73) | (-0.62) | (-1.12) | (-1.14) | |||
ρ | 0.779*** | 0.787*** | ρ | 0.590*** | 0.589*** | ρ | 0.559*** | 0.562*** |
(22.39) | (22.72) | (15.04) | (14.80) | (11.50) | (11.14) | |||
R2 | 0.313 | 0.320 | R2 | 0.337 | 0.355 | R2 | 0.372 | 0.381 |
log L | -585.757 | -888.657 | log L | -888.657 | -915.679 | log L | -676.972 | -607.577 |
表3
科学技术支出门槛效应的估计"
变量 | 环保执法(enf) | 环保立法(law) | 环保投资(inv) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(0, 0.530] | (0.530, 2.250] | (2.250, +∞) | (0, 0.360] | (0.360, 4.440] | (4.440, +∞) | (0, 1.530] | (1.530, 3.740] | (3.740, +∞) | |||
smogi,t-1 | 0.149* | 0.150* | 0.038* | 0.132 | 0.124 | 0.162* | -0.003 | -0.095 | -0.167 | ||
(1.67) | (1.69) | (1.72) | (1.44) | (1.34) | (1.72) | (-0.01) | (-0.36) | (-0.62) | |||
gov | 0.228 | 2.007*** | -0.229 | 0.027*** | -0.075* | -0.093* | -0.163 | 0.709 | -1.018* | ||
(0.47) | (2.79) | (-1.42) | (3.05) | (-1.66) | (-1.76) | (-0.28) | (1.24) | (-1.70) | |||
ey | -2.462* | -2.463* | -2.792 | -2.155** | -2.289** | -1.539 | -5.812* | -7.001* | -5.756* | ||
(-1.74) | (-1.76) | (-1.61) | (-2.49) | (-2.52) | (-1.35) | (-1.76) | (-1.92) | (-1.72) | |||
ey2 | 0. 778* | 0.778* | 0.914 | 0. 605 | 0.666* | 0.472 | 1.115 | 1.197 | 0.604 | ||
(1.75) | (1.75) | (0.89) | (1.61) | (1.66) | (1.47) | (1.56) | (1.60) | (0.30) | |||
s | -0.136* | -0.137* | -0.127* | -0.193*** | -0.192*** | -0.207*** | -0.206** | -0.212** | -0.203** | ||
(-1.82) | (-1.82) | (-1.70) | (-2.68) | (-2.66) | (-2.86) | (-2.00) | (-2.08) | (-1.99) | |||
fdi | -0.114* | -0.115* | -0.001 | -0.056 | -0.049 | -0.071 | -0.007 | 0.047 | -0.087 | ||
(-1.72) | (-1.72) | (-0.91) | (-0.82) | (-0.71) | (-1.02) | (-0.03) | (0.23) | (-0.43) | |||
den | -0.007* | -0.007* | -0.007* | -0.007* | -0.007* | -0.008** | -0.013 | -0.014 | -0.015 | ||
(-1.75) | (-1.75) | (-1.67) | (-1.81) | (-1.79) | (-2.00) | (-1.42) | (-1.46) | (-1.62) | |||
AR(1) | -3.299 | -3.321 | -3.021 | -3.335 | -3.300 | -3.277 | -2.734 | -2.712 | -2.754 | ||
-[0.001] | [0.001] | [0.001] | [0.001] | [0.001] | [0.001] | [0.006] | [0.006] | [0.005] | |||
AR(2) | 2.564 | 2.632 | 2.441 | 2.776 | 2.744 | 2.667 | 2.230 | 2.225 | 2.327 | ||
[0.113] | [0.146] | [0.108] | [0.155] | [0.152] | [0.149] | [0.125] | [0.130] | [0.144] | |||
Sargan | 24.206 | 24.321 | 22.446 | 25.315 | 25.277 | 25.082 | 24.991 | 24.877 | 25.021 | ||
[1.000] | [1.000] | [1.000] | [1.000] | [1.000] | [1.000] | [0.895] | [0.894] | [0.895] |
表4
城镇化门槛效应的估计"
区间 | 环保执法(enf) | 环保立法(law) | 环保投资(inv) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(0, 45.760] | (45.760, 86.500] | (86.500, +∞) | (0, 68.710] | (68.710, 81.550] | (81.550, +∞) | (0, 67.370] | (67.370, 82.010] | (82.010, +∞) | |||
smogi,t-1 | 0.154 | 0.157 | 0.159 | 0.199 | 0.203 | 0.205 | 0.332 | 0.256 | 0.210 | ||
(1.11) | (1.14) | (1.16) | (1.57) | (1.58) | (1.60) | (1.62) | (1.26) | (1.03) | |||
gov | 1.788 | 0.226 | 0.418 | 0.027*** | -0.103* | -0.090* | -0.115 | 2.500*** | -3.642** | ||
(1.22) | (0.58) | (1.05) | (2.71) | (-1.93) | (-1.79) | (-0.23) | (2.60) | (-2.57) | |||
ey | -10.385** | -8.965** | -9.040** | -10.967*** | -10.922*** | -10.937*** | -11.056* | -12.148** | -13.111** | ||
(-2.49) | (-2.13) | (-2.15) | (-2.81) | (-2.79) | (-2.82) | (-1.84) | (-2.05) | (-2.22) | |||
ey2 | 2.157** | 1.804* | 1.817* | 2.391** | 2.383** | 2.374** | 2.363 | 2.483 | 2.494 | ||
(2.17) | (1.79) | (1.80) | (2.54) | (2.53) | (2.50) | (1.39) | (1.49) | (1.51) | |||
s | -0.066 | -0.074 | -0.082* | -0.116 | -0.119 | -0.127 | -0.168* | -0.137 | -0.164* | ||
(-1.36) | (-1.47) | (-1.95) | (-1.46) | (-1.47) | (-1.50) | (-1.69) | (-1.40) | (-1.63) | |||
fdi | -0.079 | -0.075 | -0.078 | -0.104 | -0.107 | -1.09 | -0.260* | -0.210 | -0.219 | ||
(-0.79) | (-0.76) | (-0.79) | (-1.13) | (-1.14) | (-1.16) | (-1.67) | (-1.30) | (-1.36) | |||
den | -0.008* | -0.009** | -0.009** | -0.004 | -0.004 | -0.004 | -0.039*** | -0.036*** | -0.037*** | ||
(-1.87) | (-2.04) | (-2.08) | (-0.93) | (-0.92) | (-0.95) | (-3.55) | (-3.37) | (-3.44) | |||
AR(1) | -3.774 | -3.558 | -3.449 | -3.472 | -3.311 | -3.287 | -2.844 | -2.920 | -2.941 | ||
[0.001] | [0.001] | [0.001] | [0.001] | [0.001] | [0.001] | [0.004] | [0.004] | [0.004] | |||
AR(2) | 2.611 | 2.544 | 2.494 | 2.844 | 2.582 | 2.573 | 2.517 | 2.523 | 2.525 | ||
[0.167] | [0.157] | [0.150] | [0.164] | [0.160] | [0.153] | [0.170] | [0.174] | [0.178] | |||
Sargan | 23.822 | 22.882 | 22.772 | 26.022 | 23.774 | 23.463 | 26.233 | 26.821 | 26.833 | ||
[1.000] | [1.000] | [1.000] | [1.000] | [1.000] | [1.000] | [0.914] | [0.923] | [0.925] |
表5
城市层面3种权重的稳健性检验"
变量 | 地理权重 | 经济权重 | 混合权重 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SMOGt-1 | 0.050*** | (4.48) | 0.105*** | (4.88) | 0.035*** | (2.63) |
INV | -0.063* | (-1.74) | -0.074** | (-1.96) | -0.089*** | (-2.75) |
EY | 1.168** | (2.11) | 1.897* | (1.71) | 1.052* | (1.76) |
EY2 | -0.139** | (-2.12) | -0.147 | (-1.12) | -0.147** | (-2.02) |
S | -0.024 | (-1.48) | -0.060* | (-1.86) | -0.001 | (-0.75) |
SCI | -0.094* | (-1.85) | -0.297*** | (-2.61) | -0.130** | (-1.96) |
URB | 0.019* | (1.73) | 0.021* | (1.75) | 0.024* | (1.90) |
FDI | -0.008* | (-1.82) | -0.076*** | (-4.71) | -0.004 | (-1.38) |
DEN | -0.002 | (-1.51) | -0.001 | (-1.16) | -0.003* | (-1.69) |
WINV | -0.079 | (-0.96) | -0.421** | (-2.37) | -0.215* | (-1.67) |
WEY | -0.105 | (-1.09) | -0.231 | (-1.09) | -2.249* | (-1.83) |
WEY2 | 0.017 | (1.11) | 0.371 | (1.57) | 0.285** | (2.00) |
WS | -0.009 | (-0.92) | -0.006* | (-1.90) | -0.004* | (-1.72) |
WSCI | -0.357*** | (-2.76) | -0.057 | (-1.14) | -0.553*** | (-3.11) |
WURB | 0.024 | (0.78) | 0.077 | (1.43) | 0.055* | (1.74) |
WFDI | -0.018 | (-0.93) | -0.010** | (-2.09) | -0.023** | (-2.28) |
WDEN | 0.010 | (1.62) | 0.006 | (1.56) | 0.007 | (1.48) |
ρ | 0.977*** | (139.82) | 0.519** | (17.14) | 0.955*** | (94.65) |
R2 | 0.360 | 0.308 | 0.373 | |||
log L | -404.673 | -527.599 | -428.164 |
表6
城市层面门槛效应的稳健性检验"
科技支出区间 | (0, 0.320] | (0.320, 1.200] | (1.200, +∞) | 城镇化区间 | (0, 71.880] | (71.880, 79.900] | (79.900, +∞) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SMOGt-1 | 1.572*** | 2.089*** | 2.006*** | SMOGt-1 | 0.802*** | 0.742*** | 0.713** |
(2.88) | (3.48) | (3.34) | (2.79) | (2.59) | (2.48) | ||
INV | 0.016 | 0.059** | -0.312*** | INV | 0.031 | 0.153*** | -0.467** |
(1.28) | (2.39) | (-2.92) | (1.38) | (4.51) | (-2.33) | ||
EY | 9.493* | 14.381** | 13.713** | EY | 2.543* | 1.985 | 1.754 |
(1.81) | (2.50) | (2.38) | (1.78) | (1.61) | (0.54) | ||
EY2 | -0.156 | -0.883** | -0.837* | EY2 | -0.006 | -0.031 | -0.045 |
(-1.25) | (-1.97) | (-1.87) | (-0.02) | (-0.11) | (-0.16) | ||
S | 0.068 | -0.099** | -0.097** | S | -0.059 | -0.088** | -0.087** |
(1.50) | (-2.08) | (-2.02) | (-0.31) | (-2.27) | (-2.25) | ||
FDI | -0.298** | -0.417*** | -0.398*** | FDI | -0.119* | -0.100 | -0.095 |
(-2.31) | (-2.95) | (-2.81) | (-1.68) | (-1.42) | (-1.34) | ||
DEN | -0.122*** | -0.161*** | -0.155*** | DEN | -0.063*** | -0.058** | -0.056** |
(-2.90) | (-3.50) | (-3.36) | (-2.80) | (-2.60) | (-2.50) |
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