资源科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (1): 12-22.doi: 10.18402/resci.2021.01.02

• 资源管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

风电上网电价政策地区差异及其产业效应

赵彦云(), 李倩()   

  1. 中国人民大学统计学院,北京 100872
  • 收稿日期:2020-03-02 修回日期:2020-08-05 出版日期:2021-01-25 发布日期:2021-03-25
  • 作者简介:赵彦云,男,天津人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为宏观经济统计分析和互联网统计。E-mail: caskriu@ruc.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(17JJD910001)

Regional difference and industrial effects of wind power feed-in-tariff policy

ZHAO Yanyun(), LI Qian()   

  1. School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2020-03-02 Revised:2020-08-05 Online:2021-01-25 Published:2021-03-25

摘要:

风力发电是发展新能源产业的重要任务之一,而国家对风力发电进行补贴的上网电价政策是促进风电产业发展的重要举措。分析上网电价政策的实施情况及其产业效应,对于有效落实政策、促进风电产业高质量发展具有重要意义。本文引入政策文本分析方法,从政策实施时间、政策数量、政策相似度多个角度量化评价上网电价政策实施的地区差异。然后,从资源区和省份两个层面,建立多水平模型分析上网电价政策的产业效应。结果表明:①不同资源区和省份实施风电上网电价政策的情况不同,多数属于国家发改委划分的第Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ类资源区的省份,风电上网电价政策实施情况较好,政策发布较早、数量较多,而且政策具有针对性。②风电上网电价政策产生了显著的产业效应,而且政策实施时间越早、数量越多、政策相似度越低,越有利于风电产业发展。但是,这些政策变量对不同地区的风电产业发展的影响程度不同。政策实施时间、政策数量对风能资源丰富区的风电产业发展影响较大,政策相似度对风电发展模式不完全成熟的地区的风电产业发展影响较大。因此,各个省份应该尽早实施上网电价政策,并结合地区差异针对性地多发布政策,从而利用政府政策有序推进风电产业发展。

关键词: 风电, 上网电价政策, 地区差异, 产业效应, 文本相似度, 多水平模型

Abstract:

Wind power generation is one of the important tasks for the development of new energy industry, and feed-in-tariff policy is an important measure to promote the development of the wind power industry. It is of great significance to analyze the implementation of the policy and its industrial effect for effectively implementing the policy and promoting the high quality development of the wind power industry. This study first introduced the method of policy similarity in policy text analysis, and quantitatively evaluated the regional difference in the implementation of feed-in-tariff policy from the perspectives of policy implementation time, number of policies, and policy similarity. Then, a multilevel model was established to analyze the industrial effects of the feed-in-tariff policy at the resource area and provincial levels. The results show that: First, different resource areas and provinces have different implementation situation of feed-in-tariff policy. Most of the provinces that belong to the first, second, and third categories of resource areas classified by the National Development and Reform Commission have good implementation of the feed-in-tariff policy, and the policy was issued earlier, the number is large, and the policy is targeted. Second, the policy of wind power feed-in-tariff has significant industrial effects. The earlier the policy was implemented, the larger the number of policies, and the lower the policy similarity, the more favorable the development of the wind power industry. However, these policy variables have different impacts on the development of wind power industry in different regions. Implementation time and the number of policies have a great influence on the development of wind power industry in areas with abundant wind energy resources, while policy similarity has a great influence on the development of wind power industry in areas with immature wind power development model. Therefore, the provinces should implement the feed-in-tariff policy as soon as possible and issue more relevant policies in accordance with regional characteristics in order to promote the development of wind power industry.

Key words: wind power, feed-in-tariff policy, regional difference, industrial effects, text similarity, multilevel model