新能源汽车“双积分”政策影响的阶段性特征——经营与环境双重绩效视角

doi:10.18402/resci.2021.01.01

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“双积分”政策目的在于促进新能源汽车产业经营绩效与环境绩效的同步增长。以中国新能源乘用车（整车）上市公司作为研究样本,将“双积分”政策划分为酝酿期（2014—2016年）和实施期（2017—2018年）,从显著性、敏捷性和稳定性3个维度,分析了“双积分”政策影响下新能源车企经营绩效与环境绩效的动态变化特征。结果表明：①“双积分”政策在酝酿期便提前释放出了积极作用,环境绩效增长更显著、更稳定,经营绩效政策响应更敏捷;②“双积分”政策在实施期的积极作用进一步增强,经营绩效增长更显著,环境绩效政策响应更敏捷,增长也更稳定。政策制定者在完善和优化“双积分”政策时要善于利用政策信号释放机制,进一步提高和扩大“双积分”政策的适应性、覆盖面和精准度,把握好政策实施和执行的节奏和力度。

关键词: “双积分”政策, 经营绩效, 环境绩效, 新能源汽车, 反事实分析

Abstract:

To promote the synchronous growth of business performance and environmental performance, the corporate average fuel consumption-new energy vehicle credits (CAFC-NEV) mandate was implemented in the new energy vehicle industry. The implementation can be divided into two stages: the “brewing period” (2014-2016) and the implementation period (2017-2018). Using new energy passenger vehicles as examples, this study examined the dynamic change of business performance and environmental performance of new energy vehicle enterprises from three dimensions significance, agility, and stability. The results show that: (1) The CAFC-NEV mandate had shown its positive effects during the brewing period, in which environmental performance growth was more significant and stable, and business performance responded more quickly to the policy; (2) The positive effects of the brewing period were further enhanced in the implementation period. The growth of business performance is more significant, and the environmental performance policy response is more agile and the growth is more stable. Accordingly, the CAFC-NEV mandate needs to further improve its adaptability, coverage, and precision and control the pace and strength of implementation by taking advantage of the policy signal release mechanism.

Key words: corporate average fuel consumption-new energy vehicle credits (CAFC-NEV) mandate, business performance, environmental performance, new energy vehicle, counterfactual analysis

李旭, 熊勇清. 新能源汽车“双积分”政策影响的阶段性特征——经营与环境双重绩效视角[J]. 资源科学, 2021, 43(1): 1-11.

LI Xu, XIONG Yongqing. Characteristics of the impact of corporate average fuel consumption-new energy vehicle credits (CAFC-NEV) mandate on the new energy vehicle industry: From the perspective of business and environmental performances[J]. Resources Science, 2021, 43(1): 1-11.

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检验方法	MP	TP	EP	CNM	属性判断
ADF检验	-2.65**	-0.79*	-3.13***	-2.23**	平稳（1st-d,none）
LLC检验	-7.75***	-9.79***	-9.99***	-8.97***	平稳（1st-d,none）

阶数检验	MP			TP			EP
阶数检验	AIC	BIC	HQIC	AIC	BIC	HQIC	AIC	BIC	HQIC
1	-9.46*	-8.43*	-9.05*	0.59*	1.62*	0.99*	3.59	4.61	3.99
2	-8.89	-7.59	-8.39	1.58	2.89	2.09	1.96*	3.26*	2.47*
3	-7.50	-5.85	-6.89	2.89	4.54	3.49	2.69	4.35	3.30

自变量（滞后期数）	酝酿期				实施期
	经营绩效（BP）模型		环境绩效（EP）模型		经营绩效（BP）模型		环境绩效（EP）模型
		市场绩效（MP）模型	环境绩效（EP）模型	技术绩效（TP）模型			环境绩效（EP）模型	市场绩效（MP）模型	技术绩效（TP）模型
MP(-1)	0.827*** (0.054)				0.672 （0.076）
TP(-1)		0.694*** (0.156)				0.928 （0.609）
EP(-1)			0.422* (0.202)				0.047 (0.058)
EP(-2)			0.021 (0.014)				0.007 (0.019)
CNM(-1)	10^-4** (0.000)	0.035* （0.015)	0.355*** （0.020）		0.466*** （0.109）	0.643** （0.219）	0.571* (0.226)
CNM(-2)			0.435*** (0.098)				0.173 (0.118)

绩效增长贡献		经营绩效（BP）									环境绩效（EP）
		市场绩效（MP）				技术绩效（TP）					环境绩效（EP）
				MP	CNM	环比/%	同比/%		TP	CNM	环比/%	同比/%		EP	CNM	环比/%	同比/%
改革前	2012	1.000	0.000	-	-	1.000	0.000	-	-		1.000	0.000	-	-
改革前	2013	0.986	0.014	14.0	1.4	0.830	0.170	17.0	17.0		0.962	0.038	38.0	3.8
酝酿期	2014	0.974	0.026	85.7	2.6	0.829	0.171	0.6	17.1		0.834	0.166	337.0	16.6
	2015	0.966	0.034	30.8	3.4	0.828	0.172	0.6	17.2		0.622	0.378	128.0	37.8
	2016	0.960	0.040	17.6	4.0	0.826	0.174	1.2	17.4		0.519	0.481	27.2	48.1
实施期	2017	0.957	0.043	7.5	4.3	0.815	0.185	6.3	18.5		0.453	0.547	13.7	54.7
实施期	2018	0.954	0.046	6.9	4.6	0.798	0.202	9.2	20.2		0.417	0.583	6.6	58.3

“双积分”政策阶段	绩效分析维度		政策效果等级
“双积分”政策阶段	绩效分析维度		敏捷性	显著性	稳定性
酝酿期	经营绩效	市场绩效	★★★	★★	★★
	经营绩效	技术绩效	★★★	★★	★
	环境绩效		★★	★★★	★★★
实施期	经营绩效	市场绩效	★★	★★★	★★
	经营绩效	技术绩效	★	★★	★★
	环境绩效		★★★	★★	★★★