资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (12): 2382-2392.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.12.10
收稿日期:
2019-12-30
修回日期:
2020-04-21
出版日期:
2020-12-25
发布日期:
2021-02-25
通讯作者:
余劲
作者简介:
管睿,男,安徽合肥人,博士研究生,研究方向为贫困治理。E-mail: 基金资助:
Received:
2019-12-30
Revised:
2020-04-21
Online:
2020-12-25
Published:
2021-02-25
Contact:
YU Jin
摘要:
农户适应性是评估移民搬迁政策有效性的核心指标,更是指导移民搬迁后续扶持工作的重要抓手。本文基于陕南3市8县1250户移民搬迁农户的数据,采用两阶段最小二乘法实证检验了外部冲击视角下移民搬迁农户的社会网络对其适应性的影响机制。研究结果表明,社会网络可以通过风险分担机制帮助贫困人口有效抵御风险冲击,但由于扩大网络规模及维持关系强度需要更高水平的投资,进而对移民搬迁农户造成了次生风险。同时,社会网络可以通过机会共享机制帮助非贫困人口有效把握外部机会,且非贫困人口的投资回报率要高于贫困人口。因此,需完善移民搬迁社区周边的产业政策配套,加快移民搬迁农户的社区融入,也要加强对移民搬迁农户可能遭遇风险的事前防范,及不可抗风险冲击发生后的及时救助,进一步加大外部机会供给,降低外部机会门槛。
管睿, 余劲. 外部冲击、社会网络与移民搬迁农户的适应性[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(12): 2382-2392.
GUAN Rui, YU Jin. External shocks, social networks and adaptability of resettled farming households[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(12): 2382-2392.
表2
变量说明及描述性统计"
变量类别 | 变量名称 | 变量代码 | 变量含义及赋值 | 平均值 | 标准差 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
外部冲击 | 风险冲击 | risk | 农户近一年实际遭遇的风险数量 | 0.930 | 0.501 |
机会供给 | oppor | 农户能够获得的外部机会数量 | 1.479 | 0.967 | |
网络规模 ( | 礼金支出 | — | 2017年家庭礼金支出,实际金额(元)取对数 | 8.359 | 1.896 |
通讯费用 | — | 2017年家庭通讯费用支出,实际金额(元)取对数 | 7.311 | 1.312 | |
亲友联系人数 | — | 逢年过节时亲朋好友间联系的人数,1=0~10,2=11~20,3=21~30,4=31及以上 | 2.422 | 0.952 | |
关系强度 ( | 同村人关系 | — | 家庭与一般村民关系如何,1=非常疏远,2=比较疏远,3=关系一般,4=比较紧密,5=非常紧密 | 3.491 | 0.920 |
亲友关系 | — | 家庭与亲戚朋友关系如何,1=非常疏远,2=比较疏远,3=关系一般,4=比较紧密,5=非常紧密 | 4.102 | 0.739 | |
村干部关系 | — | 家庭与村干部关系如何,1=非常疏远,2=比较疏远,3=关系一般,4=比较紧密,5=非常紧密 | 3.537 | 0.853 | |
社会结构 ( | 村内事 务参与 | — | 家庭是否经常参与村内事务,1完全不参与,2=偶尔参与,3=一般,4=经常参与,5=事事参与 | 2.522 | 1.105 |
是否党员 | — | 家庭中是否有党员,0=无,1=有 | 0.098 | 0.298 | |
是否村干部 | — | 家庭中是否有村干部,0=无,1=有 | 0.063 | 0.243 | |
网络质量 ( | 亲友是否公务员 | — | 亲戚朋友担任国家公务员的人数 | 0.395 | 1.47 |
亲友是否城市居住 | — | 亲戚朋友在城市居住的人数 | 2.258 | 4.864 | |
可求助人数 | — | 家庭在急需大笔开支时所能求助的人数 | 4.824 | 4.543 | |
控制变量 | 户主性别 | gender | 0=女,1=男 | 0.945 | 0.228 |
户主年龄 | age | 户主实际年龄/岁 | 50.510 | 10.548 | |
家庭负担比 | afford | 老人、幼儿、学生数量占家庭总人口比重 | 0.397 | 0.284 | |
户主健康水平 | health | 1=很不好(长期吃药等);2=不好;3=一般;4=比较好;5=极好 | 3.151 | 0.985 | |
户主受教育水平 | edu | 1=没上过学;2=小学;3=初中;4=高中或中专;5=大专及以上 | 2.499 | 0.909 | |
劳动力务工时长 | worktime | 2017年家庭中劳动力外出务工月数之和 | 14.531 | 9.235 | |
经营平地面积 | flat | 农户实际耕种的平地面积/亩 | 0.485 | 1.519 | |
经营坡地面积 | slope | 农户实际耕种的坡地面积/亩 | 1.121 | 2.465 | |
安置方式 | resettle | 1=集中安置;2=分散安置 | 1.128 | 0.334 | |
离镇距离 | distance | 离最近的城镇距离/km | 0.345 | 1.083 |
表3
外部冲击、社会网络对农户贫困脆弱性的影响回归结果"
模型(1) | 模型(2) | 模型(3) | 模型(4) | 模型(5) | 模型(6) | 模型(7) | 模型(8) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
risk | 0.027*** (0.006) | 0.031*** (0.004) | 0.025*** (0.004) | 0.016*** (0.004) | ||||
oppor | -0.013*** (0.002) | -0.018*** (0.003) | -0.021*** (0.003) | -0.014*** (0.002) | ||||
sc | -0.448*** (0.030) | -0.193* (0.108) | -0.225** (0.103) | -0.209** (0.103) | -0.428*** (0.031) | -0.211* (0.114) | -0.296*** (0.107) | -0.198* (0.112) |
sc2 | 1.305*** (0.124) | 1.257*** (0.122) | ||||||
-0.241*** (0.029) | -0.077** (0.033) | |||||||
0.657*** (0.225) | ||||||||
0.176*** (0.015) | 0.130*** (0.019) | |||||||
-0.596*** (0.146) | ||||||||
gender | -0.003 (0.008) | -0.006 (0.008) | -0.010 (0.008) | -0.011 (0.007) | -0.002 (0.007) | -0.004 (0.008) | -0.004 (0.007) | -0.004 (0.007) |
age | 0.001** (0.000) | 0.001*** (0.000) | 0.001*** (0.004) | 0.000* (0.000) | 0.001** (0.000) | 0.000** (0.000) | 0.000* (0.000) | 0.000 (0.000) |
health | -0.030*** (0.002) | -0.032*** (0.002) | -0.031*** (0.002) | -0.032*** (0.002) | -0.031*** (0.002) | -0.033*** (0.002) | -0.033*** (0.002) | -0.032*** (0.002) |
edu | -0.013*** (0.002) | -0.019*** (0.003) | -0.019*** (0.003) | -0.022*** (0.003) | -0.013*** (0.002) | -0.018*** (0.003) | -0.018*** (0.003) | -0.021*** (0.003) |
worktime | -0.005*** (0.000) | -0.006*** (0.000) | -0.006*** (0.002) | -0.006*** (0.000) | -0.005*** (0.002) | -0.006*** (0.000) | -0.006*** (0.000) | -0.006*** (0.000) |
resettle | 0.003 (0.003) | 0.004 (0.003) | 0.003 (0.003) | 0.002 (0.003) | 0.004 (0.003) | 0.005* (0.003) | 0.004 (0.002) | 0.002 (0.002) |
distance | 0.007** (0.003) | 0.007*** (0.002) | 0.006*** (0.002) | 0.006*** (0.002) | 0.008** (0.003) | 0.008*** (0.002) | 0.008*** (0.002) | 0.008*** (0.002) |
flat | 0.002** (0.001) | 0.002 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.002 (0.001) | 0.002** (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) |
slope | 0.002*** (0.001) | 0.002* (0.001) | 0.001* (0.001) | 0.002** (0.001) | 0.002** (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.001* (0.001) | 0.001* (0.001) |
afford | 0.133*** (0.008) | 0.140*** (0.007) | 0.137*** (0.007) | 0.136*** (0.007) | 0.135*** (0.008) | 0.141*** (0.007) | 0.138*** (0.007) | 0.135*** (0.006) |
constant | 0.453*** (0.022) | 0.364*** (0.042) | 0.385*** (0.040) | 0.396*** (0.038) | 0.491*** (0.022) | 0.424*** (0.039) | 0.466*** (0.037) | 0.420*** (0.042) |
观测值 | 1250 | 1250 | 1250 | 1250 | 1250 | 1250 | 1250 | 1250 |
弱工具变量检验统计量 | 51.059 | 51.979 | 48.339 | 46.379 | 44.995 | 41.798 | ||
R2 | 0.771 | 0.743 | 0.763 | 0.789 | 0.770 | 0.750 | 0.771 | 0.791 |
表4
外部冲击、多维度社会网络对农户贫困脆弱性的影响回归结果"
模型(9) | 模型(10) | 模型(11) | 模型(12) | 模型(13) | 模型(14) | 模型(15) | 模型(16) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
risk | 0.025*** (0.006) | 0.029*** (0.005) | 0.040*** (0.005) | 0.028*** (0.003) | ||||
oppor | -0.019*** (0.003) | -0.017*** (0.003) | -0.020*** (0.002) | -0.017*** (0.002) | ||||
-0.015 (0.110) | 0.085** (0.040) | -0.100** (0.041) | -0.198*** (0.043) | -0.057 (0.105) | 0.081** (0.037) | -0.099** (0.039) | -0.183*** (0.043) | |
-0.008 (0.260) | 0.149** (0.063) | 0.087(0.066) | 1.005*** (0.072) | 0.131 (0.247) | 0.143** (0.061) | 0.088 (0.064) | 0.929*** (0.069) | |
-0.158*** (0.037) | -0.068*** (0.026) | -0.054** (0.025) | -0.082*** (0.025) | |||||
0.326** (0.136) | 0.298*** (0.093) | -0.122 (0.077) | -0.100* (0.059) | |||||
0.094*** (0.019) | 0.061*** (0.012) | 0.062*** (0.013) | 0.070*** (0.010) | |||||
-0.203*** (0.060) | -0.288*** (0.059) | -0.051** (0.025) | -0.107*** (0.038) | |||||
gender | -0.010 (0.009) | -0.012 (0.009) | -0.008 (0.009) | -0.006 (0.005) | -0.007 (0.009) | -0.009 (0.009) | -0.004 (0.008) | -0.001 (0.005) |
age | 0.000** (0.000) | 0.000* (0.000) | 0.001*** (0.000) | 0.000*** (0.000) | 0.000** (0.000) | 0.000 (0.000) | 0.000** (0.000) | 0.000*** (0.000) |
health | -0.034*** (0.002) | -0.035*** (0.002) | -0.033*** (0.002) | -0.031*** (0.001) | -0.035*** (0.002) | -0.036*** (0.002) | -0.035*** (0.002) | -0.032*** (0.001) |
edu | -0.023*** (0.002) | -0.025*** (0.003) | -0.020*** (0.002) | -0.021*** (0.002) | -0.022*** (0.002) | -0.023*** (0.002) | -0.020*** (0.002) | -0.021*** (0.002) |
worktime | -0.006*** (0.000) | -0.006*** (0.000) | -0.006*** (0.000) | -0.005*** (0.000) | -0.006*** (0.000) | -0.006*** (0.000) | -0.006*** (0.000) | -0.006*** (0.000) |
resettle | 0.004 (0.003) | 0.005 (0.003) | 0.005* (0.003) | 0.001 (0.002) | 0.006* (0.003) | 0.006** (0.003) | 0.007** (0.003) | 0.000 (0.002) |
distance | 0.007*** (0.002) | 0.006*** (0.002) | 0.007*** (0.002) | 0.003** (0.001) | 0.009*** (0.002) | 0.008*** (0.002) | 0.008*** (0.002) | 0.004*** (0.001) |
flat | 0.002 (0.001) | 0.002 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.002*** (0.001) | 0.002 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.002*** (0.001) |
slope | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.003*** (0.001) | 0.000 (0.000) | 0.000 (0.001) | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.002*** (0.000) |
afford | 0.143*** (0.009) | 0.141*** (0.008) | 0.147*** (0.007) | 0.121*** (0.005) | 0.143*** (0.009) | 0.141*** (0.008) | 0.149*** (0.007) | 0.123*** (0.005) |
constant | 0.308*** (0.024) | 0.254*** (0.031) | 0.290*** (0.066) | 0.426*** (0.025) | 0.360*** (0.021) | 0.307*** (0.029) | 0.355*** (0.018) | 0.464*** (0.025) |
观测值 | 1250 | 1250 | 1250 | 1250 | 1250 | 1250 | 1250 | 1250 |
弱工具变量检验统计量 | 40.280 | 160.704 | 131.350 | 117.750 | 42.352 | 180.173 | 138.809 | 107.995 |
R2 | 0.689 | 0.669 | 0.712 | 0.888 | 0.704 | 0.6880 | 0.720 | 0.897 |
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