资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11): 2145-2157.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.11.08
收稿日期:
2020-05-11
修回日期:
2020-09-06
出版日期:
2020-11-25
发布日期:
2021-01-25
作者简介:
郭建科,男,山西长治人,教授,博士,研究方向为交通地理与港航网络、海洋经济地理、城市地理。E-mail: 基金资助:
GUO Jianke1(), GUO Shu1, QIN Yafeng2, LIANG Muxin1
Received:
2020-05-11
Revised:
2020-09-06
Online:
2020-11-25
Published:
2021-01-25
摘要:
中非海运网络既是国际航运网络的重要组成部分,又对保障中非贸易的畅通具有重要意义。本文基于1998年、2008年和2018年3个时间断面的中非航运集装箱数据, 深入探讨“海上丝路”背景下中非航运网络格局和其演化特征并揭示中非地缘经济联系强度的影响因素。结果表明:①整体看网络复杂性增强,中非港口联系广度与强度明显提高,“小世界”和无标度特征明显。网络呈现“纺锤形”结构,网络尚没有形成一体化的轴-辐结构;②从网络节点发育及功能分化看,国内港口较为稳定,上海、宁波和深圳始终处于中非联系的前三位;新加坡、巴生港在中转港中占据主导地位;非洲港口出现明显的迁移,南非、北非、东非、西非各形成了区域性枢纽港,但没有形成具有大洲层面整合作用的枢纽港;③航运中间性是中国与非洲地缘经济联系的重要推动力,航运邻近性对中国与非洲地缘经济联系作用显著,航运直达性对中国与非洲地缘经济联系的作用有限。中非友好互助历史悠久,伴随着“一带一路”倡议的深入推进、中非地缘经济联系的加强,应该采取相应的措施完善与优化海运结构以提高对经济合作与联系的支撑能力。
郭建科, 郭姝, 秦娅风, 梁木新. 中非集装箱航运网络演化及其对经贸联系的支撑能力[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(11): 2145-2157.
GUO Jianke, GUO Shu, QIN Yafeng, LIANG Muxin. Change of China-Africa container shipping network and its ability to support economic and trade ties[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(11): 2145-2157.
表3
OLS模型计算结果"
年份 | 变量 | 回归系数 | 稳健标准差 | 稳健t统计量 | 稳健p值 | 方差膨胀因子 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1998 | WDC | 0.027 | 0.022 | 1.248 | 0.238 | 3.270 |
WCC | 12.968 | 9.451 | 1.372 | 0.197 | 1.765 | |
WBC | -0.047 | 0.034 | -1.388 | 0.193 | 2.579 | |
2008 | WDC | -0.027 | 0.039 | -0.693 | 0.495 | 3.841 |
WCC | 3.773 | 2.545 | 1.482 | 0.151 | 1.914 | |
WBC | 0.004 | 0.037 | 0.099 | 0.922 | 2.509 | |
2018 | WDC | 0.014 | 0.010 | 1.459 | 0.163 | 1.207 |
WCC | 0.242 | 1.258 | 0.192 | 0.850 | 1.418 | |
WBC | 0.033 | 0.028 | 1.151 | 0.266 | 1.392 |
表5
GWR模型的运算结果"
解释变量 | 最大值 | 最小值 | 中位数 | 平均值 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1998年 | 直达性 | 2.685 | 2.672 | 2.679 | 2.680 |
中间性 | 12.980 | 12.965 | 12.972 | 12.972 | |
邻近性 | -4.673 | -4.690 | -4.684 | -4.682 | |
2008年 | 直达性 | 2.804 | -6.050 | -3.540 | -3.211 |
中间性 | 50.830 | 30.765 | 41.264 | 40.216 | |
邻近性 | 3.788 | -5.899 | 0.655 | 0.410 | |
2018年 | 直达性 | 14.065 | 13.963 | 14.005 | 14.012 |
中间性 | 24.332 | 24.014 | 24.190 | 24.170 | |
邻近性 | 32.516 | 32.437 | 32.492 | 32.486 |
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