中非集装箱航运网络演化及其对经贸联系的支撑能力

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.11.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中非海运网络既是国际航运网络的重要组成部分,又对保障中非贸易的畅通具有重要意义。本文基于1998年、2008年和2018年3个时间断面的中非航运集装箱数据, 深入探讨“海上丝路”背景下中非航运网络格局和其演化特征并揭示中非地缘经济联系强度的影响因素。结果表明：①整体看网络复杂性增强,中非港口联系广度与强度明显提高,“小世界”和无标度特征明显。网络呈现“纺锤形”结构,网络尚没有形成一体化的轴-辐结构;②从网络节点发育及功能分化看,国内港口较为稳定,上海、宁波和深圳始终处于中非联系的前三位;新加坡、巴生港在中转港中占据主导地位;非洲港口出现明显的迁移,南非、北非、东非、西非各形成了区域性枢纽港,但没有形成具有大洲层面整合作用的枢纽港;③航运中间性是中国与非洲地缘经济联系的重要推动力,航运邻近性对中国与非洲地缘经济联系作用显著,航运直达性对中国与非洲地缘经济联系的作用有限。中非友好互助历史悠久,伴随着“一带一路”倡议的深入推进、中非地缘经济联系的加强,应该采取相应的措施完善与优化海运结构以提高对经济合作与联系的支撑能力。

关键词: “21世纪海上丝绸之路”, 中非合作, 航运网络, 地理加权, 集装箱, 航运与经贸联系

Abstract:

As an important part of the international shipping network, the China-Africa maritime network is of great significance for ensuring the unimpeded trade between China and Africa. Based on the China-Africa shipping container data in 1998, 2008, and 2018, this study explored the spatial pattern of China-Africa shipping network and its characteristics of change under the background of the Maritime Silk Road construction, and revealed the influencing factors of the strength of China-Africa geo-economic ties. The results show that: (1) On the whole, the complexity of the network has grown, the breadth and strength of China-Africa port connections have increased significantly, and the “small world” and scale-free characteristics of the network are obvious. The network presents a “spindle” structure and has not yet formed an integrated hub-spoke structure. (2) From the perspective of network node development and functional differentiation, Chinese ports are relatively stable. The ports of Shanghai, Ningbo, and Shenzhen have always been among the top three in China-Africa ties; Singapore and Port Klang occupy a dominant position among the transit ports; and there has been a significant shift of African ports. South Africa, North Africa, East Africa, and West Africa have each formed a regional hub port, but a hub port with a continent-level integration effect has not been formed. (3) Shipping betweenness is an important driving force of geo-economic ties between China and Africa; shipping proximity plays a significant role in geo-economic relations between China and Africa, while shipping directness plays a limited role in geo-economic relations between China and Africa. China and Africa have a long history of friendship and mutual assistance. With the deepening of the Belt and Road initiative and the strengthening of geo-economic ties between China and Africa, corresponding measures should be taken to improve and optimize the maritime transport structure to enhance the supporting capacity of economic cooperation and ties.

Key words: 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, China-Africa cooperation, shipping network, geographically weighted, containers, shipping and economic relation

郭建科, 郭姝, 秦娅风, 梁木新. 中非集装箱航运网络演化及其对经贸联系的支撑能力[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(11): 2145-2157.

GUO Jianke, GUO Shu, QIN Yafeng, LIANG Muxin. Change of China-Africa container shipping network and its ability to support economic and trade ties[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(11): 2145-2157.

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1998			2008			2018
中国	亚洲	非洲	中国	亚洲	非洲	中国	亚洲	非洲
上海港	新加坡港	塞得港	深圳港	巴生港	苏伊士港	宁波港	新加坡港	开普敦港
深圳港	科伦坡港	苏丹港	上海港	新加坡港	德班港	深圳港	海法港	罗安达港
天津港	马德拉斯港	亚历山大港	宁波港	吉达港	塞得港	上海港	林查班港	德班港
大连港	槟城港	达米埃塔港	香港港	丹戎帕拉帕斯港	洛美港	厦门港	科伦坡港	科托努港
青岛港	卡拉奇港	苏伊士港	厦门港	伊斯坦布尔港	特马港	天津港	巴生港	洛美港

节点类型	代表节点
区域性枢纽港	开普敦港、塞得港、蒙巴萨港、尼日利亚港
区域性骨干港	德班港、阿尔及尔港、吉布提港、苏丹港、杜阿拉港、塞得港、罗安达港、特马港、阿帕帕港、
一般节点	科托努港、洛美港、沃尔维斯湾港、纳卡拉港、路易港、安纳巴港、阿比让港、达累斯萨拉姆港

年份	变量	回归系数	稳健标准差	稳健t统计量	稳健p值	方差膨胀因子
1998	WDC	0.027	0.022	1.248	0.238	3.270
	WCC	12.968	9.451	1.372	0.197	1.765
	WBC	-0.047	0.034	-1.388	0.193	2.579
2008	WDC	-0.027	0.039	-0.693	0.495	3.841
	WCC	3.773	2.545	1.482	0.151	1.914
	WBC	0.004	0.037	0.099	0.922	2.509
2018	WDC	0.014	0.010	1.459	0.163	1.207
	WCC	0.242	1.258	0.192	0.850	1.418
	WBC	0.033	0.028	1.151	0.266	1.392

年份	指标	OLS	GWR
1998年	AIC	1363.795	1129.314
	R²	0.041	0.363
	调整后的R²	-0.190	0.279
2008年	AIC	1447.614	1151.848
	R²	0.064	0.357
	调整后的R²	-0.086	0.203
2018年	AIC	1617.257	1324.008
	R²	0.117	0.532
	调整后的R²	0.025	0.317

	解释变量	最大值	最小值	中位数	平均值
1998年	直达性	2.685	2.672	2.679	2.680
	中间性	12.980	12.965	12.972	12.972
	邻近性	-4.673	-4.690	-4.684	-4.682
2008年	直达性	2.804	-6.050	-3.540	-3.211
	中间性	50.830	30.765	41.264	40.216
	邻近性	3.788	-5.899	0.655	0.410
2018年	直达性	14.065	13.963	14.005	14.012
	中间性	24.332	24.014	24.190	24.170
	邻近性	32.516	32.437	32.492	32.486