资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11): 2132-2144.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.11.07

• 海洋资源与北极航道专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

外商直接投资对小岛屿国家经济增长的影响——基于旅游业门槛效应的分析

郭越1,2(), 黄友星3, 杨宇1,2,4(), 刘曙光3, 王畅5, 黄莘绒1,2   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2.中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院,北京 100049
    3.中国海洋大学 经济学院,青岛 266100
    4.粤港澳大湾区战略研究院,广州 510070
    5.复旦大学 经济学院,上海 200433
  • 收稿日期:2020-05-08 修回日期:2020-09-07 出版日期:2020-11-25 发布日期:2021-01-25
  • 通讯作者: 杨宇
  • 作者简介:郭越,男,河北保定人,硕士研究生,研究方向为世界经济地理与资源经济。E-mail: guoy. 19s@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    粤港澳大湾区战略研究院建设专项(2019GDASYL-0202001);广东省科学院发展专项(2020GDASYL-20200102002)

Impact of foreign direct investment on Small Island States’ economic growth: An analysis based on the threshold effect of tourism

GUO Yue1,2(), HUANG Youxing3, YANG Yu1,2,4(), LIU Shuguang3, WANG Chang5, HUANG Xinrong1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modelling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
    4. Institute of Strategy Research for Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Greater Bay Area, Guangzhou 510070, China
    5. School of Economics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
  • Received:2020-05-08 Revised:2020-09-07 Online:2020-11-25 Published:2021-01-25
  • Contact: YANG Yu

摘要:

旅游业和外商直接投资(FDI)是影响小岛屿国家经济可持续增长的重要因素。本文选取30个小岛屿国家作为研究对象,利用1995—2015年的国民经济面板数据,将FDI和旅游业收入的交乘项纳入双向固定效应模型,以探讨FDI对经济增长影响。结果表明:①旅游业对小岛屿国家的经济增长具有明显的正相关作用,是小岛屿国家经济增长的重要产业支撑;②旅游业的规模对FDI带来的经济增长具有双重门槛效应,即在达到第一重门槛前,FDI带来的经济增长效应为负;在两个门槛之间时,增长效应不显著;而当旅游业规模超过第二重门槛之后,FDI对经济增长有明显的拉动作用。研究结论有助于进一步加强FDI、旅游业和岛屿经济增长关系的研究,同时为中国对小岛屿国家的国际投资和国内海岛旅游引资等方面提供参考。

关键词: 小岛屿国家, 外商直接投资, 经济增长, 旅游业, 门槛效应

Abstract:

Tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) are important aspects of the sustainable economic growth of Small Island States. In this study, 30 Small Island States were selected as research objects, and the panel data of 1995-2015 were used to incorporate the interactive of FDI and tourism revenue into a two-way fixed effects model to explore whether there is a threshold effect between FDI and economic growth using tourism development as a threshold variable. The results show that: (1) Tourism has a significant positive correlation with the economic growth of Small Island States, and is an important industrial support for economic growth of Small Island States; (2) There is a double threshold effect based on the scale of tourism: Before the first threshold is reached, the effect of FDI on economic growth is negative; between the two thresholds, the effect of FDI on growth is not significant; but as the scale of tourism exceeds the second threshold, FDI functions as a clear stimulation for economic growth. The conclusion is helpful to deepen the understanding of the development pattern of island economies, and it has reference value for China’s international investment in small island countries, as well as domestic island tourism development.

Key words: Small Island States, foreign direct investment, economic growth, tourism development, threshold effect