资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11): 2106-2118.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.11.05
收稿日期:
2020-05-08
修回日期:
2020-09-18
出版日期:
2020-11-25
发布日期:
2021-01-25
作者简介:
潘常虹,女,辽宁大连人,副教授,研究方向为北极航线开发策略、博弈论。E-mail: 基金资助:
PAN Changhong1(), LI Zhenfu2, SUN Dongshi1
Received:
2020-05-08
Revised:
2020-09-18
Online:
2020-11-25
Published:
2021-01-25
摘要:
在冰上丝绸之路建设背景下,北极航道的利用对中国对外贸易重新布局具有重要意义。针对中俄共同开发北极航道的问题,研究中国如何利用资本优势投资沿线港口开发获得长期稳定收益。利用Stackelberg博弈理论建立了中俄双方独立的博弈模型和有其他投资国参与时的混合博弈模型,选择代表性港口、利用DEA进行评价,并整理数据进行实证研究,得出了如下结论:①港口运营成本是影响最终收益的关键要素,在投资时应通过智能化设备和信息平台等降低运行成本。当有多国参与投资时,中国应争取先手优势,或选择组建投资联盟,不能通过压缩收益的方式进行价格战;②投资的港口要保证港口建设水平与港口发展潜力保持匹配,港口的建设水平过高和过低都将影响投资收益,通过DEA有效性评评价,可以找到现有建设水平的不足,并进行针对性调整。对于受政治等因素无法进行设施调整的港口,不作为优先投资对象;③投资额在较低的水平增长时,反而会带来收益的下降,进行联合投资是解决该问题的有效手段。投资的港口的总规模影响收益,需要平衡港口升级难度和港口总规模,优先选择升级难度较低的大规模港口群,而不是选择升级难度大、现代化程度较高的单独港口进行投资。
潘常虹, 李振福, 孙冬石. 基于Stackelberg博弈的中国投资北极航道沿线港口开发策略[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(11): 2106-2118.
PAN Changhong, LI Zhenfu, SUN Dongshi. Strategy of China’s investment in Arctic Passage development based on Stackelberg game theory[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(11): 2106-2118.
表3
计划投资港口的现有建设情况信息"
港口 | 泊位水深/m | 港口泊位数量/个 | 泊位总长度/m | 堆场面积/m2 | 港口装卸机械数量/台 | 货运量/百万t |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
摩尔曼斯克港 | 13.0 | 29 | 3554 | 222460 | 62 | 51.70 |
阿尔汉格尔斯克港 | 9.2 | 21 | 15916 | 459246 | 72 | 2.60 |
迪克森港 | 9.1 | 22 | 200 | 14000 | 10 | 0.20 |
萨别塔 | 8.9 | 14 | 311 | 20100 | 10 | 8.00 |
季克西 | 7.6 | 14 | 1724 | 56700 | 23 | 0.41 |
佩韦克 | 10.0 | 9 | 500 | 149100 | 20 | 0.24 |
普罗维杰尼亚港 | 10.0 | 8 | 524 | 33900 | 4 | 0.01 |
乌厄连 | 7.9 | 5 | 254 | 12300 | 5 | 0.10 |
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