基于Stackelberg博弈的中国投资北极航道沿线港口开发策略

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.11.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在冰上丝绸之路建设背景下,北极航道的利用对中国对外贸易重新布局具有重要意义。针对中俄共同开发北极航道的问题,研究中国如何利用资本优势投资沿线港口开发获得长期稳定收益。利用Stackelberg博弈理论建立了中俄双方独立的博弈模型和有其他投资国参与时的混合博弈模型,选择代表性港口、利用DEA进行评价,并整理数据进行实证研究,得出了如下结论：①港口运营成本是影响最终收益的关键要素,在投资时应通过智能化设备和信息平台等降低运行成本。当有多国参与投资时,中国应争取先手优势,或选择组建投资联盟,不能通过压缩收益的方式进行价格战;②投资的港口要保证港口建设水平与港口发展潜力保持匹配,港口的建设水平过高和过低都将影响投资收益,通过DEA有效性评评价,可以找到现有建设水平的不足,并进行针对性调整。对于受政治等因素无法进行设施调整的港口,不作为优先投资对象;③投资额在较低的水平增长时,反而会带来收益的下降,进行联合投资是解决该问题的有效手段。投资的港口的总规模影响收益,需要平衡港口升级难度和港口总规模,优先选择升级难度较低的大规模港口群,而不是选择升级难度大、现代化程度较高的单独港口进行投资。

关键词: Stackelberg 博弈, Matlab仿真, 北极航道, 投资组合策略, DEA

Abstract:

In the context of the construction of the Silk Road on the Ice, the use of the Arctic Passage is of great significance for the development of China’s international trade. Considering China and Russia’s joint development of the Arctic Passage, this study examined how China can use its capital advantage to invest in port development along the route to obtain long-term stable returns. Using Stackelberg game theory, an independent game model between China and Russia and a mixed game model when other investment countries are involved were established. Representative ports were selected for evaluation using data envelopment analysis (DEA), and data were collected for empirical research. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) Port operating costs are a key factor that affect the final profit. When investing, it is necessary to reduce operating costs through intelligent equipment and information platforms. When multiple countries are involved in investment, China should strive for early-start advantages or choose to form an investment alliance instead of engaging in price wars by reducing returns; (2) Port investment strategy must ensure that port development level matches port development potentialport development level too high and too low both will affect the return on investment. Through the effectiveness evaluation of DEA, we can identify the shortcomings of the existing development level and make targeted adjustments. Ports that cannot be adjusted for facilities due to political reasons are not regarded as priority investment objects; (3) When the investment amount increases from a low level, it will bring a decline in income. Joint investment is an effective means to solve this problem. The total scale of investment ports affects returns. It is necessary to balance port upgrading difficulty and the total scale of ports. Priority should be given to large-scale port clusters with lower upgrading difficulty, rather than to individual ports that are difficult to upgrade and have a higher degree of modernization.

Key words: Stackelberg game, Matlab simulation, Arctic Passage, portfolio strategy, data envelopment analysis (DEA)

潘常虹, 李振福, 孙冬石. 基于Stackelberg博弈的中国投资北极航道沿线港口开发策略[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(11): 2106-2118.

PAN Changhong, LI Zhenfu, SUN Dongshi. Strategy of China’s investment in Arctic Passage development based on Stackelberg game theory[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(11): 2106-2118.

图/表 10

图1

图2

表1

图3

表2

表3

表4

投资收益表"

序号	投资策略	投资收益
1	A	$1144 5 × 4.5 - 5 × 1 × 0.7 - 3 × 1 × 0.5 × e - 5 ω 0 I - 2 × 12 2$ –I
2	B	$1144 5 × 4.5 - 5 × 1 × 0.7 - 3 × 1 × 0.5 × e - 3 ω 0 I - 2 × 12 2$ –I
3	C	$1144 5 × 4.5 - 5 × 1 × 0.7 - 3 × 1 × 0.5 × e - 2 ω 0 I - 2 × 12 2$ –I
4	AB	$1144 5 × 4.5 - 5 × 1 × 0.7 - 3 × 1 × 0.5 × e - 8 ω 0 I - 2 × 12 2$ –I
5	AC	$1144 5 × 4.5 - 5 × 1 × 0.7 - 3 × 1 × 0.5 × e - 7 ω 0 I - 2 × 12 2$ –I
6	BC	$1144 5 × 4.5 - 5 × 1 × 0.7 - 3 × 1 × 0.5 × e - 5 ω 0 I - 2 × 12 2$ –I
7	ABC	$1144 5 × 4.5 - 5 × 1 × 0.7 - 3 × 1 × 0.5 × e - 10 ω 0 I - 2 × 12 2$ –I

表4

表5

表6

图4

参考文献 39

[1]	王冠, 陈涵如, 王平, 等. 俄罗斯环北极地区地表径流变化及其原因[J]. 资源科学, 2020,42(2):346-357.
	[ Wang G, Chen H R, Wang P, et al. Surface runoff changes and their causes in the Russian Pan-Arctic region[J]. Resources Science, 2020,42(2):346-357.]
[2]	李振福, 王文雅, 米季科·瓦列里·布罗尼斯拉维奇. 中俄北极合作走廊建设构想[J]. 东北亚论坛, 2017,26(1):53-63.
	[ Li Z F, Wang W Y, Bronislavich M W. The study of sino-Russia arctic route cooperation corridor[J]. Northeast Asia Forum, 2017,26(1):53-63.]
[3]	李振福, 汤晓雯, 姚丽丽, 等. 北极通道开发与中国石油进口通道格局变化[J]. 资源科学, 2015,37(8):1639-1649.
	[ Li Z F, Tang X W, Yao L L, et al. Development of the arctic channel and patterns of change in China’s oil importing channels[J]. Resources Science, 2015,37(8):1639-1649.]
[4]	丛晓男. 俄罗斯北方海航道发展战略演进: 从单边管控到国际合作[J]. 欧亚经济, 2019, (4):44-59.
	[ Cong X N. Strategic evolution of Russia’s northern sea route: From unilateral control to international cooperation[J]. Russian Central Asian & East European Market, 2019, (4):44-59.]
[5]	王丹, 张浩. 北极通航对中国北方港口的影响及其应对策略研究[J]. 中国软科学, 2014, (3):16-31.
	[ Wang D, Zhang H. Impact of the arctic passage’s opening on Chinese northern ports and China’s response[J]. China Soft Science, 2014, (3):16-31.]
[6]	范厚明, 刘益迎. 北极通航对中国海运贸易的影响分析[J]. 对外经贸实务, 2015, (9):21-23.
	[ Fan H M, Liu Y Y. Analysis of the influence of Arctic navigation on China’s maritime trade[J]. Practice in Foreign Economic Relations and Trade, 2015, (9):21-23.]
[7]	Mou N X, Li J, Sun S Y, et al. The impact of opening the arctic northeast passage on the global maritime transportation network pattern using AIS data[J]. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2020,13(1):419.
[8]	章成, 顾兴斌. 论中国对北极事务的参与: 法律依据、现实条件和利益需求[J]. 理论月刊, 2017, (4):103-107.
	[ Zhang C, Gu X B. On China’s participation in arctic affairs: Legal basis, realistic conditions and interest demand[J]. Theory Monthly, 2017, (4):103-107.]
[9]	Zhu X N, Cao W Z, Ai W Z. The study on necessity of actively participating in opening up the arctic northeast passage[J]. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2018,189(6):159-162.
[10]	谢玮. 加拿大驻华大使赵朴谈北极开发: 北极航运比油气开发更重要[J]. 中国经济周刊, 2014, (25):76-77.
	[ Xie W. Canadian ambassador to China Zhao Pu talks about arctic development: Arctic shipping is more important than oil and gas development[J]. China Economic Weekly, 2014, (25):76-77.]
[11]	李靖宇, 张晨瑶. 中俄两国合作开拓21世纪东北方向海上丝绸之路的战略构想[J]. 东北亚论坛, 2015,24(3):75-83.
	[ Li J Y, Zhang C Y. The strategic conception of Sino-Russia joint development of the 21st century maritime silk road to the direction of Northeast[J]. Northeast Asia Forum, 2015,24(3):75-83.]
[12]	姜巍. 环北极国家基础设施投资机遇与中国策略[J]. 人民论坛·学术前沿, 2018, (11):50-59.
	[ Jiang W. Infrastructure investment opportunities in the Pan-Arctic Countries and China’s strategy[J]. Frontiers, 2018, (11):50-59.]
[13]	李振福, 尤雪, 王文雅. 中国北极航线多层战略体系研究[J]. 中国软科学, 2015, (4):29-37.
	[ Li Z F, You X, Wang W Y. Study of multilayer-strategy system for China’s approach to the Arctic route[J]. China Soft Science, 2015, (4):29-37.]
[14]	迟梦菡. 北极东北航道开通后对我国与沿线国家贸易潜力影响分析[D]. 大连: 大连海事大学, 2019.
	[ Chi M H. The Northeast Sea Route’s Impact on Trade Potential Between China and the Countries Along[D]. Dalian: Dalian Maritime University, 2019.]
[15]	丛晓男. 北极西北航道潜在经济影响及中国对策: 基于全球多区域可计算一般均衡[J]. 世界经济与政治, 2017, (2):106-129.
	[ Cong X N. Potential influence of the Northwest passage on global economics and China’s countermeasures: Based on Global Multi-Regional CGE Model[J]. World Economy and Politics, 2017, (2):106-129.]
[16]	于涛, 丁一, 林国龙. 基于熵权法的东北航道LNG船舶经济效益评价[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2017,43(3):50-57.
	[ Yu T, Ding Y, Lin G L. Economic benefit evaluation of LNG ship through the northeast passage based on entropy weight method[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2017,43(3):50-57.]
[17]	单雨龙, 张韧, 李明. 基于动态贝叶斯网络的北极东北航道关键海区通航可行性研究[J]. 极地研究, 2019,31(1):94-102.
	[ Shan Y L, Zhang R, Li M. A feasibility study of navigation in a key sea area of the northeast passage of the northeast passage of the Arctic based on dynamic Bayesian network[J]. Chinese Journal of Polar Research, 2019,31(1):94-102.]
[18]	许小青. “泛北极圈”国家治理现状及其对我国北极利益选择的影响[J]. 南阳师范学院学报, 2015,14(8):6-10.
	[ Xu X Q. “Pan-Arctic” national governance and its impact on the status of China’s arctic interests[J]. Journal of Nanyang Normal University, 2015,14(8):6-10.]
[19]	肖洋. 韩国的北极战略: 构建逻辑与实施愿景[J]. 国际论坛, 2016,18(2):13-19.
	[ Xiao Y. South Korea’s arctic strategy: Logic of construction and vision of implementation[J]. International Forum, 2016,18(2):13-19.]
[20]	Song M G. Analysis of China’s arctic route development associated with the Belt and Road initiative[J]. Journal of Digital Convergence, 2018, (2):103-115.
[21]	王竞超. 日本北极航道开发战略研究: 战略动机、决策机制与推进模式[J]. 世界经济与政治论坛, 2017, (3):77-94.
	[ Wang J C. Research on the development strategy of Japan’s Arctic Waterway: Strategic motivation, decision-making mechanism and promotion model[J]. Forum of World Economics & Politics, 2017, (3):77-94.]
[22]	辛玉花. 北极航线通航对上海港港口物流发展的影响评价[D]. 长春: 吉林大学, 2018.
	[ Xin Y H. Impact of Arctic Route Navigation on Port Logistics Development of Shanghai[D]. Changchun: Jilin University, 2018.]
[23]	董江, 刘雷, 卫国兵. 北极东北航道关键水域通航环境及沿线主要港口[J]. 航海, 2018, (3):43-46.
	[ Dong J, Liu L, Wei G B. Navigation environment in key waters of the Arctic Northeast Passage and main ports along the route[J]. Navigation, 2018, (3):43-46.]
[24]	梁承姬, 姚远, 徐德洪, 等. 基于模糊综合评价法的北极挂靠港建模选择研究[J]. 华中师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2017,51(6):817-824.
	[ Liang C J, Yao Y, Xu D H, et al. Study on the selecting model for Arctic ports of call basing on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method[J]. Journal of Central China Normal University (Natural Sciences), 2017,51(6):817-824.]
[25]	韦博文. 北极经济圈国家港口物流网络演化研究[D]. 大连: 大连海事大学, 2020.
	[ Wei B W. Research on the Evolution of Port Logistics Network in Arctic Economic Circle Countries[D]. Dalian: Dalian Maritime University, 2020.]
[26]	中华人民共和国海事局. 北极航行指南(东北航道)[M]. 北京: 人民交通出版社, 2014.
	[ Maritime Safety Administration of the People’s Republic of China. Guidance on Arctic Navigation in the Northeast Route[M]. Beijing: China Communications Press, 2014.]
[27]	朱静. 北极东北航线港口合作竞争力研究[D]. 大连: 大连海事大学, 2017.
	[ Zhu J. Research on Port Cooperative Competitiveness of Ports Along the Northeast Passage of the Arctic[D]. Dalian: Dalian Maritime University, 2017.]
[28]	李振福, 丁超君. 北极航线货流结构与演化趋势研究[J]. 国际经贸探索, 2016,32(3):34-45.
	[ Li Z F, Ding C J. The structure and evolution trend of Arctic route cargo flow[J]. International Economics and Trade Research, 2016,32(3):34-45.]
[29]	Lindstad H, Bright R Y, Strømmanb A H, et al. Economic savings linked to future Arctic shipping trade are at odds win climate change mitigation[J]. Transport Policy, 2016,45:24-30.
[30]	Yuan C Y, Hsieh C H, Su D T. Effects of new shipping routes on the operational resilience of container lines: Potential impacts of the Arctic Sea Route and the Kra Canal on the Europe-Far East seaborne trades[J]. Maritime Economics & Logistics, 2020,22(2):308-325.
[31]	匡海波, 牛文元. 基于随机规划的港口投资优化决策模型[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2010,30(1):62-67.
	[ Kuang H B, Niu W Y. Port investment decision-making optimization model based on stochastic programming[J]. Systems Engineering: Theory & Practice, 2010,30(1):62-67.]
[32]	夏一平, 胡麦秀. 北极航线与传统航线航运成本的估算和比较[J]. 海洋经济, 2017,7(3):11-19.
	[ Xia Y P, Hu M X. Estimation and comparison analysis on shipping cost of the Arctic shipping routes and the traditional shipping routes[J]. Marine Economy, 2017,7(3):11-19.]
[33]	高世龙, 刘加钊, 张晓. 冰上丝绸之路背景下商船北极航行的经济性评析[J]. 对外经贸实务, 2018, (1):26-29.
	[ Gao S L, Liu J Z, Zhang X. Economic analysis of merchant ship sailing in the Arctic under the background of the Silk Road on Ice[J]. Practice in Foreign Economic Relations and Trade, 2018, (1):26-29.]
[34]	闫力. 北极航道通航环境研究[D]. 大连: 大连海事大学, 2011.
	[ Yan L. The Research on the Navigable Environment of Arctic Passage[D]. Dalian: Dalian Maritime University, 2011.]
[35]	Ebrahimnejad A, Matin R K, Maleki S. Two-stage network DEA with convex hull in intermediate products[J]. Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 2019, (1):99-105.
[36]	石永强, 王佳欣, 张智勇. 基于博弈论的两级逆向供应链定价策略研究[J]. 工业工程, 2020,23(3):45-50.
	[ Shi Y Q, Wang J X, Zhang Z Y. Research strategy based on game theory for two-stage reverse supply chain[J]. Industrial Engineering Journal, 2020,23(3):45-50.]
[37]	Koch-Weser I, Murray C. The China-Russia gas deal: Background and implications for the broader relationship[J]. US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2014, (9):259-264.
[38]	Jorgensen S, Zaccour G. Equilibrium pricing and advertising strategies in a marketing channel[J]. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 1999,102(1):111-125
[39]	陆钢. “冰上丝绸之路”的商用价值及其技术支撑[J]. 人民论坛·学术前沿, 2018, (11):35-39.
	[ Lu G. The commercial value of the“Polar Silk Road” and its technical support[J]. Frontiers, 2018, (11):35-39.]

序号	港口	所属海域	选择原因
1	摩尔曼斯克港	巴伦支海	北冰洋沿线最大海港,不冻港,最大渔港
2	阿尔汉格尔斯克港	巴伦支海	多功能港口,海铁枢纽,人口多
3	迪克森港	喀拉海	泊位条件好,燃料补给基地
4	萨别塔	喀拉海	中国通过河运进入北冰洋的唯一航道,服务亚马尔液化天然气项目
5	季克西	拉普捷夫海	海、河、江汇聚效应,通航时间长,地理位置优越
6	佩韦克	东西伯利亚海	航务服务齐全,港区吃水深
7	普罗维杰尼亚港	楚科奇海	通航期较长,船舶补给站和燃料供应站
8	乌厄连	楚科奇海	北极航道东大门

港口	人口 /人	通航期 /月份	腹地已探测待开采油气/亿t
摩尔曼斯克港	298096	全年	85.62
阿尔汉格尔斯克港	351488	6—10	0.66
迪克森港	609	7—10	171.68
萨别塔	33750	7—10	171.68
季克西	3380	7—10	40.95
佩韦克	4547	7—10	0.18
普罗维杰尼亚港	2109	7—10	1.53
乌厄连	632	7—10	1.53

港口	泊位水深/m	港口泊位数量/个	泊位总长度/m	堆场面积/m²	港口装卸机械数量/台	货运量/百万t
摩尔曼斯克港	13.0	29	3554	222460	62	51.70
阿尔汉格尔斯克港	9.2	21	15916	459246	72	2.60
迪克森港	9.1	22	200	14000	10	0.20
萨别塔	8.9	14	311	20100	10	8.00
季克西	7.6	14	1724	56700	23	0.41
佩韦克	10.0	9	500	149100	20	0.24
普罗维杰尼亚港	10.0	8	524	33900	4	0.01
乌厄连	7.9	5	254	12300	5	0.10

	DMU5	DMU6
X1	0	0
X2	0	0
X3	0.0075	0
X4	0.0001	1.0484
X5	0.2046	0.0001
X6	0	0