资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (9): 1668-1679.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.09.03

• 土地资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

玉米价格下跌对华北平原农地流转的影响

王倩(), 余劲()   

  1. 西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌 712100
  • 收稿日期:2019-10-15 修回日期:2020-08-17 出版日期:2020-09-25 发布日期:2020-11-25
  • 通讯作者: 余劲
  • 作者简介:王倩,女,山东菏泽人,博士后,研究方向为农业经济理论与政策,E-mail: wangqian706@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71874139);国家自然科学基金项目(71573208);国家重点研发计划“政府间国际科技创新合作”重点专项(2017YFE0181100)

Effect of maize price decline on land transfer in the North China Plain

WANG Qian(), YU Jin()   

  1. College of Economics and Management, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, China
  • Received:2019-10-15 Revised:2020-08-17 Online:2020-09-25 Published:2020-11-25
  • Contact: YU Jin

摘要:

粮食生产是流转土地最主要的用途,粮食价格下跌对农地流转的影响事关中国农业现代化进程和国家粮食安全。玉米作为三大主粮之一,2014—2016年间其价格迅速下降,对农地流转产生了重要影响,成为一个亟待研究的问题。基于河南省和山东省8县621户农户构成的3期农地流转面板数据,利用随机效应Logit模型及固定效应OLS模型,将玉米价格作为自变量代入模型,就其对农户农地流转行为的影响进行回归分析。结果显示:①玉米价格的变化对于农地流转具有显著影响,其中玉米价格下跌增加了农户土地转出意愿,降低了转入意愿,参与农地流转市场的农户结构发生明显变化;②玉米价格下跌后不同类型农户流转土地面积的变化存在差异,非市场化条件转入土地种植粮食作物农户没有发生显著改变,市场化条件转入土地种植粮食作物农户则会转入更多土地扩大经营规模,在一定程度上加快了土地的集中趋势;③玉米价格下跌增加了转入户的非粮作物播种面积占比,流转土地非粮化倾向加剧。由此可以得出,玉米价格下跌有助于实现粮食规模化经营,但转入户非粮化倾向的提高对国家粮食安全产生不利影响。

关键词: 玉米价格下跌, 农地流转, 异质性, 非粮化, 固定效应OLS模型, 华北平原

Abstract:

Since most of the land transferred among land rental markets is used for grain production, the effect of grain price decline is closely related to the agricultural modernization progress and the national food security in China. As one of the three staple grain crops, the price of maize experienced a significant decline during 2014 to 2016, which had an important effect on farmers’ land rental behaviors. In this study, we specifically explored the effect of maize price decline on farmers’ land renting decisions and ratio of non-grain crops with the random logit model and fixed effect model based on the three-period panel data of 621 households from 8 counties in Henan and Shandong provinces, and we got the following results. First, maize price had a significant effect land transfer, in which maize price decline increased farmers’ willingness to rent out land and decreased farmers’ willingness to rent in land, leading to the structure change among households that participated in the land rental markets. Second, rent-in households had heterogeneous strategies in dealing with the maize price decline because market-oriented rent-in grain producers enlarged the farm size by renting in more land, while non-market-oriented rent-in grain producers had no significant change in the area of land that they rented in. Third, the maize price decline aggravates the non-grain production problem by increasing the ratio of non-grain crops among rent-in households. We reached the conclusion that maize price decline can help to achieve large-scale grain production in China, but the increasing tendency to plant non-grain crops among rent-in households can have an adverse effect on the national food security.

Key words: maize price decline, land transfer, heterogeneity, non-grain production, fixed-effect ordinary least squares (OLS) model, North China Plain