资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (9): 1657-1667.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.09.02
收稿日期:
2019-10-14
修回日期:
2020-01-10
出版日期:
2020-09-25
发布日期:
2020-11-25
通讯作者:
钟涨宝
作者简介:
李虹韦,女,山西大同人,博士生,研究方向为农村改革与区域发展。E-mail: 基金资助:
LI Hongwei1,3(), ZHONG Zhangbao2,3(
)
Received:
2019-10-14
Revised:
2020-01-10
Online:
2020-09-25
Published:
2020-11-25
Contact:
ZHONG Zhangbao
摘要:
农地确权是农地经营权有序流转的制度基础,而确权制度的可信度则决定了它能否有效发挥效果。本文构建了“农地确权—确权制度可信度—农地转出意愿”的分析框架,探讨了农地确权对农户土地转出意愿的影响以及确权制度可信度的调节作用。研究结果表明:①农地确权有利于明晰和稳定农地产权,对农户的土地转出意愿有显著的正向影响,同时确权效果的显现具有明显的滞后性,确权时间越长,农户转出土地的意愿越强烈;②确权制度可信度在农地确权时长对农地转出意愿的影响中具有显著的调节效应。确权制度可信度越高的地区,农地确权时长对农户土地转出意愿的有效影响越强,反之则越弱。因此,通过农地确权促进土地流转,必须充分考虑地方农户对确权制度可信度的集体认知。在确权制度可信度较高的地区,进一步加强确权制度与相关配套政策的有效衔接,加快培育和规范农地流转市场,巩固和强化农地确权效果;在确权制度可信度较低的地区,则要继续稳定农地承包关系,提高确权制度可信度,为确权制度发挥效果留有一定的缓冲空间。
李虹韦, 钟涨宝. 农地确权对农地转出意愿的影响——基于确权制度可信度的调节效应分析[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(9): 1657-1667.
LI Hongwei, ZHONG Zhangbao. Impact of confirmation of land right on farmers’ willingness to transfer land: The moderating effect based on institutional credibility of land confirmation system[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(9): 1657-1667.
表2
变量定义、测量与描述性统计"
变量及定义 | 测量单位 | 平均值 | 标准差 | 最小值 | 最大值 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
因变量 | 农地确权后,转出土地的意愿 | 非常不愿意=1;不太愿意=2;一般=3;比较愿意=4;非常愿意=5 | 3.28 | 1.31 | 1 | 5 |
核心自变量 | 农地确权时长 | 单位:年 | 3.16 | 1.30 | 1 | 6 |
调节变量 | 制度可信度(农地确权后,本轮承包期内继续调地的可能性) | 完全有可能=1;比较有可能=2;一般=3;不太可能=4;完全不可能=5 | 3.09 | 1.49 | 1 | 5 |
户主特征变量 | 年龄 | 单位:岁 | 57.12 | 10.46 | 26 | 87 |
受教育程度 | 未上学=1;小学=2;初中=3;高中/中专/技校=4;大专及以上=5 | 2.47 | 0.90 | 1 | 5 | |
是否外出务工 | 是=1;否=0 | 0.40 | 0.49 | 0 | 1 | |
是否担任过村干部 | 是=1;否=0 | 0.14 | 0.35 | 0 | 1 | |
家庭特征变量 | 家庭劳动力人数 | 单位:人 | 3.13 | 1.32 | 0 | 10 |
家庭年总收入 | 单位:元 | 85196.58 | 83026.52 | 0 | 1042280 | |
家庭非农收入比例 | 单位:% | 67.38 | 32.63 | 0 | 100 | |
土地特征变量 | 实际经营农地面积 | 单位:亩 | 15.74 | 30.57 | 0 | 471.57 |
是否有土地转出经历 | 是=1;否=0 | 0.26 | 0.44 | 0 | 1 | |
地区特征变量 | 村庄距县城的距离 | 单位:km | 22.64 | 13.61 | 0 | 80 |
地区变量(省) | 湖北=1;山东=2;广西=3 | 1.37 | 0.66 | 1 | 3 |
表3
农地确权、制度可信度对农地流转意愿的交互影响"
变量 | 模型 I | 模型 II | 模型 III | 模型IV |
---|---|---|---|---|
农地确权时长 | 0.217***(0.035) | 0.217***(0.035) | 0.227***(0.035) | |
确权制度可信度 | 0.096**(0.030) | 0.092**(0.031) | 0.071*(0.032) | |
农地确权时长×确权制度可信度 | 0.042*(0.022) | |||
年龄 | 0.007(0.004) | 0.010*(0.004) | 0.008(0.004) | 0.008(0.004) |
受教育程度 | 0.041(0.048) | 0.060(0.048) | 0.052(0.048) | 0.050(0.048) |
是否外出务工 | 0.067(0.087) | 0.071(0.087) | 0.057(0.087) | 0.051(0.087) |
是否担任过村干部 | 0.321**(0.122) | 0.309*(0.122) | 0.304*(0.122) | 0.311*(0.122) |
家庭劳动力人数 | -0.044(0.037) | -0.060(0.037) | -0.055(0.037) | -0.053(0.037) |
家庭年总收入 | 0.000(0.000) | 0.000(0.000) | 0.000(0.000) | 0.000(0.000) |
家庭非农收入比例 | 0.002(0.001) | 0.002(0.001) | 0.002(0.001) | 0.002(0.001) |
实际经营农地面积 | -0.004*(0.002) | -0.003*(0.001) | -0.003*(0.002) | -0.003*(0.002) |
是否有农地转出经历 | 0.341***(0.098) | 0.323***(0.098) | 0.331***(0.098) | 0.335***(0.098) |
村庄距县城的距离 | -0.014***(0.003) | -0.022***(0.003) | -0.014***(0.003) | -0.013***(0.003) |
地区变量_山东 | -0.238*(0.114) | -0.125(0.122) | -0.093(0.123) | -0.115(0.123) |
地区变量_广西 | -0.294*(0.136) | -0.150(0.140) | -0.182(0.140) | -0.188(0.140) |
Constant cut1 | -1.683***(0.364) | -2.073***(0.357) | -1.312***(0.378) | -2.278***(0.345) |
Constant cut2 | 0.352(0.358) | -0.044(0.350) | 0.720(0.372) | -0.245(0.338) |
Constant cut3 | 0.876*(0.358) | 0.477(0.350) | 1.245***(0.372) | 0.281(0.338) |
Constant cut4 | 2.203***(0.361) | 1.796***(0.352) | 2.589***(0.376) | 1.627***(0.340) |
Observations | 2106 | 2096 | 2096 | 2096 |
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