农地确权对农地转出意愿的影响——基于确权制度可信度的调节效应分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.09.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

农地确权是农地经营权有序流转的制度基础,而确权制度的可信度则决定了它能否有效发挥效果。本文构建了“农地确权—确权制度可信度—农地转出意愿”的分析框架,探讨了农地确权对农户土地转出意愿的影响以及确权制度可信度的调节作用。研究结果表明：①农地确权有利于明晰和稳定农地产权,对农户的土地转出意愿有显著的正向影响,同时确权效果的显现具有明显的滞后性,确权时间越长,农户转出土地的意愿越强烈;②确权制度可信度在农地确权时长对农地转出意愿的影响中具有显著的调节效应。确权制度可信度越高的地区,农地确权时长对农户土地转出意愿的有效影响越强,反之则越弱。因此,通过农地确权促进土地流转,必须充分考虑地方农户对确权制度可信度的集体认知。在确权制度可信度较高的地区,进一步加强确权制度与相关配套政策的有效衔接,加快培育和规范农地流转市场,巩固和强化农地确权效果;在确权制度可信度较低的地区,则要继续稳定农地承包关系,提高确权制度可信度,为确权制度发挥效果留有一定的缓冲空间。

关键词: 农地确权, 确权制度可信度, 农地转出意愿, 调节效应, 制度功能

Abstract:

The confirmation of agricultural land right is the institutional basis for the orderly transfer of farmland management rights, and institutional credibility of land confirmation system determines whether it can effectively work. This study constructed the analytical framework of confirmation of land right-institutional credibility of land confirmation system-farmers’willingness to transfer land, then examined the influence of the confirmation of land right on farmers’willingness to transfer land and the moderating effect of institutional credibility of land confirmation system. The results show that: First, confirmation of land right is conducive to clarifying and stabilizing farmland property rights, and the duration of confirmed land right has a significant positive impact on farmers’willingness to transfer land. At the same time, the effect of confirmation is lagging behind, the longer the time period of confirmed right, the stronger the willingness of farmers to transfer land. Second, institutional credibility has a significant moderating effect. The effective impact of the duration of confirmed agricultural land right on the willingness of farmers to transfer land is stronger in areas where the institutional credibility of land confirmation system is higher, and the weaker the converse. Therefore, we must fully consider the collective recognition of local farmers on the institutional credibility of land confirmation system. In areas with high institutional credibility, it is necessary to further strengthen the effective link between the land right confirmation system and related supporting policies, cultivate and standardize agricultural land transfer market, and consolidate and strengthen the effect of agricultural land right confirmation. In areas with low institutional credibility, we can continue to stabilize the contracting relationship of agricultural land, improve the credibility of the system, and leave a certain room for the development of the agricultural land right confirmation system.

Key words: confirmation of land right, institutional credibility of land confirmation system, willingness to transfer land, moderating effect, institutional function

李虹韦, 钟涨宝. 农地确权对农地转出意愿的影响——基于确权制度可信度的调节效应分析[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(9): 1657-1667.

LI Hongwei, ZHONG Zhangbao. Impact of confirmation of land right on farmers’ willingness to transfer land: The moderating effect based on institutional credibility of land confirmation system[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(9): 1657-1667.

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参考文献 41

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省份	县/区	样本量/户	比例/%
山东省	夏津县	360	17.00
湖北省	红安县	290	13.70
	监利县	579	27.35
	沙洋县	347	16.39
	襄州区	333	15.73
广西壮族自治区	三江县	208	9.83
合计		2117	100.00

	变量及定义	测量单位	平均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
因变量	农地确权后,转出土地的意愿	非常不愿意=1;不太愿意=2;一般=3;比较愿意=4;非常愿意=5	3.28	1.31	1	5
核心自变量	农地确权时长	单位：年	3.16	1.30	1	6
调节变量	制度可信度（农地确权后,本轮承包期内继续调地的可能性）	完全有可能=1;比较有可能=2;一般=3;不太可能=4;完全不可能=5	3.09	1.49	1	5
户主特征变量	年龄	单位：岁	57.12	10.46	26	87
	受教育程度	未上学=1;小学=2;初中=3;高中/中专/技校=4;大专及以上=5	2.47	0.90	1	5
	是否外出务工	是=1;否=0	0.40	0.49	0	1
	是否担任过村干部	是=1;否=0	0.14	0.35	0	1
家庭特征变量	家庭劳动力人数	单位：人	3.13	1.32	0	10
	家庭年总收入	单位：元	85196.58	83026.52	0	1042280
	家庭非农收入比例	单位：%	67.38	32.63	0	100
土地特征变量	实际经营农地面积	单位：亩	15.74	30.57	0	471.57
土地特征变量	是否有土地转出经历	是=1;否=0	0.26	0.44	0	1
地区特征变量	村庄距县城的距离	单位：km	22.64	13.61	0	80
地区特征变量	地区变量（省）	湖北=1;山东=2;广西=3	1.37	0.66	1	3

变量	模型 I	模型 II	模型 III	模型IV
农地确权时长	0.217***(0.035)		0.217***(0.035)	0.227***(0.035)
确权制度可信度		0.096**(0.030)	0.092**(0.031)	0.071*(0.032)
农地确权时长×确权制度可信度				0.042*(0.022)
年龄	0.007(0.004)	0.010*(0.004)	0.008(0.004)	0.008(0.004)
受教育程度	0.041(0.048)	0.060(0.048)	0.052(0.048)	0.050(0.048)
是否外出务工	0.067(0.087)	0.071(0.087)	0.057(0.087)	0.051(0.087)
是否担任过村干部	0.321**(0.122)	0.309*(0.122)	0.304*(0.122)	0.311*(0.122)
家庭劳动力人数	-0.044(0.037)	-0.060(0.037)	-0.055(0.037)	-0.053(0.037)
家庭年总收入	0.000(0.000)	0.000(0.000)	0.000(0.000)	0.000(0.000)
家庭非农收入比例	0.002(0.001)	0.002(0.001)	0.002(0.001)	0.002(0.001)
实际经营农地面积	-0.004*(0.002)	-0.003*(0.001)	-0.003*(0.002)	-0.003*(0.002)
是否有农地转出经历	0.341***(0.098)	0.323***(0.098)	0.331***(0.098)	0.335***(0.098)
村庄距县城的距离	-0.014***(0.003)	-0.022***(0.003)	-0.014***(0.003)	-0.013***(0.003)
地区变量_山东	-0.238*(0.114)	-0.125(0.122)	-0.093(0.123)	-0.115(0.123)
地区变量_广西	-0.294*(0.136)	-0.150(0.140)	-0.182(0.140)	-0.188(0.140)
Constant cut1	-1.683***(0.364)	-2.073***(0.357)	-1.312***(0.378)	-2.278***(0.345)
Constant cut2	0.352(0.358)	-0.044(0.350)	0.720(0.372)	-0.245(0.338)
Constant cut3	0.876*(0.358)	0.477(0.350)	1.245***(0.372)	0.281(0.338)
Constant cut4	2.203***(0.361)	1.796***(0.352)	2.589***(0.376)	1.627***(0.340)
Observations	2106	2096	2096	2096