资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (8): 1614-1629.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.08.15

• 油气资源格局与战略 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国海外油气依存的现状、地缘风险与应对策略

杨宇1,2,3(), 何则1,2,3   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 区域可持续发展分析与模拟实验室,北京 100101
    2.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
    3.粤港澳大湾区战略研究院,广州 510070
  • 收稿日期:2020-03-02 修回日期:2020-07-11 出版日期:2020-08-25 发布日期:2020-10-25
  • 作者简介:杨宇,山东威海人,研究员,博士生导师,主要从事能源地缘政治与区域发展研究。E-mail: yangyu@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41871118);国家自然科学基金项目(42022007);粤港澳大湾区战略研究院建设专项(2019GDASYL-0202001);广东省科学院发展专项(2020GDASYL-20200102002)

China’s overseas oil and gas dependence: Situation, geographical risks, and countermeasures

YANG Yu1,2,3(), HE Ze1,2,3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling /Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Institute of Strategy Research of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Guangzhou 510070, China
  • Received:2020-03-02 Revised:2020-07-11 Online:2020-08-25 Published:2020-10-25

摘要:

在新能源发展方兴未艾之时,油气资源仍然在世界能源消费比重中占据主导地位。中国是世界最大能源消费和油气进口国,保障油气资源供应是攸关国家安全的重大战略。本文在分析中国海外油气依存现状的基础上,总结了中国油气供应保障的主要地缘风险,并提出了保障海外油气资源供应安全的应对策略。研究表明,当前中国石油和天然气的海外依存度已分别超过70%和40%,进口来源地集中程度过高,导致中国油气供应极易受到地缘风险的干扰。中国的海外油气供应面临着一系列地缘风险:世界油气主产区与主要来源国的地缘政治形势多变、美国实现“能源独立”后或将以能源作为地缘政治手段、新型工业化国家油气需求旺盛且地理集中增加了地缘摩擦的可能性、海上油气运输通道战略节点众多且易受大国实力干扰、油气战略储备不足难以应对突发战争与禁运风险等。鉴于此,针对中国海外油气合作的不同区域与合作重点,提出了保障中国海外油气供应安全的多元化与差异化的应对策略。

关键词: 油气资源, 能源安全, 地缘风险, 应对策略, 中国

Abstract:

Oil and gas resources still occupy a dominant position in global energy consumption. China is the world’s largest energy consumption and oil importing country. Security of oil and gas resources supply is a major strategy related to national security. Based on the analysis of China’s overseas oil and gas dependence, this study summarized the main geographical risks of China’s oil and gas supply security and puts forward the countermeasures. The results show that: China’s dependence on overseas oil and natural gas has exceeded 70% and 40% respectively, and the concentration of importing countries is very high, which makes the country vulnerable to the interference of geopolitical risks. Potential geopolitical risks that China’s overseas oil and gas supply faces include the unstable geopolitical situation of importing countries, the possibility that the United States may use energy as a geopolitical tool and strategy, the concentration of new industrialized countries that have strong oil and gas demand. There are many strategic nodes in the oil and gas transportation channels that are easy to be interfered by the power of big countries. Strategic reserves of oil and gas are insufficient to deal with the risk of sudden war and embargo. To ensure China’s oil and gas security, it is necessary to adopt differentiated oil and gas cooperation strategies in view of the unstable situations in different regions.

Key words: oil and gas resources, energy security, geopolitical risks, coping strategies, China