资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (8): 1604-1613.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.08.14

• 关键矿产产业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

定价机制转型对铁矿石价格波动的影响

尤喆1,3(), 成金华2,3(), 吴桐1, 王然2,3   

  1. 1.武汉工程大学法商学院,武汉 430205
    2.中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,武汉 430074
    3.中国地质大学(武汉)资源环境经济研究中心,武汉 430074
  • 收稿日期:2020-02-19 修回日期:2020-06-21 出版日期:2020-08-25 发布日期:2020-10-25
  • 通讯作者: 成金华
  • 作者简介:尤喆,男,湖北黄冈,讲师,硕士生导师,研究方向为资源环境管理。E-mail: cug_youzhe@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重大项目(71991482)

Influence of pricing mechanism transferring on iron ore price volatility

YOU Zhe1,3(), Cheng Jinhua2,3(), WU Tong1, WANG Ran2,3   

  1. 1. School of Law and Business, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China
    2. School of Economics & Management, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
    3. Research Center of Resource and Environmental Economics, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
  • Received:2020-02-19 Revised:2020-06-21 Online:2020-08-25 Published:2020-10-25
  • Contact: Cheng Jinhua

摘要:

中国是世界铁矿石第一进口国和消费国,然而长期以来面临着定价权缺失问题。通过定价机制改革,掌握铁矿石定价权是保障中国资源安全战略的重要科学问题。文章以2009年铁矿石由长期协议定价机制向短期协议定价机制改革为参考点,采用以断点回归模型为核心的研究方法,选取2005年7月至2019年3月的相关月度数据,对铁矿石定价机制改革与中国铁矿石进口价格波动的因果关联进行实证分析。结果表明:①短期协议定价机制的引入与国内进口铁矿石价格波动密切相关,在短期内能有效抑制价格的大幅上涨,经测算,定价机制转型能够降低国内进口铁矿石价格6.06%~18%;②短期协议定价机制改革在短期不能抑制国际铁矿石价格;③在定价机制冲击铁矿石进口价格过程中,内生性因素影响较小。基于以上结论,本文建议应继续加大对短期定价机制的创新力度;发挥中国铁矿石短期定价机制改革的羊群效应,以协同增加同铁矿石供应商协商的议价权;针对国际市场变化情况灵活调整定价机制,强化在国际铁矿石市场的议价能力。

关键词: 定价机制, 铁矿石, 价格波动, 断点回归

Abstract:

China is the largest importing and consuming country of iron ore in the world. However, it has faced the problem of lack of pricing power for a long time. Obtaining market pricing power through the reform of pricing mechanism is a key scientific issue for ensuring the security of China’s resource supply. Using the regression discontinuity model and monthly data from July 2005 to March 2019, this study conducted an empirical analysis from the perspective of pricing mechanism transition, to explore the causal relationship between the reform of short-term pricing mechanism and the fluctuation of import price of iron ore in China. The results reveal that the introduction of short-term pricing mechanism is closely related to the fluctuation of domestic imported iron ore price and it can effectively restrain the dramatic rise of the price in the short term, while the reform of short-term pricing mechanism has no convincing negative relationship with the fluctuation of international iron ore price. Meanwhile, endogenous factors had slight influence on iron ore import price during the process of pricing mechanism reform. Based on these conclusions, this article suggests that the reform of short-term pricing mechanism should be strengthened continuously. In order to increase the pricing power in the negotiation with iron ore suppliers, herd effect should play a role in the reform of China’s short-term iron ore pricing mechanism. China should flexibly adjust the pricing mechanism according to changes in the international market in order to enhance the pricing power on the market.

Key words: pricing mechanism, iron ore, price volatility, regression discontinuity