资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (8): 1592-1603.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.08.13

• 关键矿产产业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

技术进步对关键金属矿产需求影响的研究综述

董雪松1,2(), 黄健柏1,2(), 钟美瑞1,2, 谌金宇1,2, 刘刚3, 宋益4   

  1. 1.中南大学商学院,长沙 410083
    2.中南大学金属资源战略研究院,长沙 410083
    3.南丹麦大学工学院生命周期工程研究中心,欧登塞5230,丹麦
    4.中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,武汉430074
  • 收稿日期:2020-02-17 修回日期:2020-08-02 出版日期:2020-08-25 发布日期:2020-10-25
  • 通讯作者: 黄健柏
  • 作者简介:董雪松,女,辽宁营口人,博士生,研究方向为资源经济与管理。E-mail: codenamedxs@csu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    湖南省社会科学基金智库专项项目(19ZWB45);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71633006);国家自然科学基金项目(71874207);国家自然科学基金重大项目(71991484)

A review on the impact of technological progress on critical metal mineral demand

DONG Xuesong1,2(), HUANG Jianbai1,2(), ZHONG Meirui1,2, CHEN Jinyu1,2, LIU Gang3, SONG Yi4   

  1. 1. School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
    2. Institute of Metal Resources Strategy, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
    3. SDU Life Cycle Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering, Biotechnology, and Environmental Engineering, University of Southern Denmark (SDU), 5230 Odense, Denmark
    4. School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
  • Received:2020-02-17 Revised:2020-08-02 Online:2020-08-25 Published:2020-10-25
  • Contact: HUANG Jianbai

摘要:

新技术、新材料、新产业的蓬勃发展将对关键金属矿产需求产生深远影响,探讨技术进步如何影响关键金属矿产需求,从而确保关键金属矿产安全,对中国经济迈上高质量发展阶段和实现低碳转型具有一定现实意义。本文对技术进步与关键金属需求关系的文献展开了系统梳理,发现:随着资源安全成为国家重要需求问题,技术进步与关键金属需求预测研究逐渐成为热点,但现有文献量化研究较少且缺乏系统性,鉴于技术进步测度和数据获取等难点,需求预测结果的精准性有待进一步提高。本文提炼了技术进步作用于关键金属需求的3条微观影响机制,即技术进步—经济增长—关键金属、技术进步—产业结构—关键金属、技术进步—替代循环—关键金属,为后续研究提供整体分析框架;提出该领域后续研究重点,即重点关注低碳技术-关键金属、战略新兴产业-关键金属耦合问题,同时解决技术进步在理论模型和计量模型中的测度问题,推进新技术革命背景下关键金属需求预测分析框架的构建。

关键词: 技术进步, 关键金属, 影响机制, 需求预测

Abstract:

The emerging technologies, materials, and industries have a profound and increasing impact on the amount and structure of demand of critical metals. Understanding how technological progress affects the demand for critical metals and minerals is of certain practical significance for the high-quality economic transformation, the low-carbon energy transformation, and the critical minerals security in China. This paper conducted a systematic review of the literature on the relationship between technological progress and critical metal demand, and finds that: As resource security has become an important national demand issue, technological progress and critical metal demand prediction have gradually become a hot spot. However, there are few quantitative studies and lack of systematization in existing literature. And the accuracy of demand forecasting results needs to be further improved due to difficulties in measuring technological progress and data acquisition. In this paper, three micro-influencing mechanisms of technological progress on the demand for critical metals were applied: technological progress—economic growth, industrial structure and substitution and recycle—metal minerals, providing an overall analytical framework for subsequent studies. The focus of follow-up research in this field was proposed, that is, focusing on the coupling problem of low-carbon technology—critical metals and strategic emerging industries—critical metals, solving the measurement problem of technological progress in theoretical and econometric model, and promoting the construction of analytical frameworks for critical metal demand forecasting as technological revolution continues in the new era.

Key words: technological progress, critical metal, mechanism of effect, demand forecasting