资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (8): 1551-1565.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.08.10
收稿日期:
2020-02-19
修回日期:
2020-06-12
出版日期:
2020-08-25
发布日期:
2020-10-25
通讯作者:
郑明贵
作者简介:
董娟,女,山西洪洞人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为矿业技术经济与管理。E-mail: 基金资助:
DONG Juan1(), ZHENG Minggui1,2(
), ZHONG Changbiao3
Received:
2020-02-19
Revised:
2020-06-12
Online:
2020-08-25
Published:
2020-10-25
Contact:
ZHENG Minggui
摘要:
研究中国稀土产业发展财政支持效应对于完善稀土产业政策理论、优化财政支持政策体系和实现稀土产业可持续发展具有重要价值。本文以中国稀土上市公司为样本,构建了基于SBM-DEA四阶段分析方法的财政支持效率评价模型和基于面板FGLS估计方法的影响因素模型,测算和分析了2010—2019年中国稀土产业财政支持效率及其影响因素,并区分稀土产业链前后端进行比较研究。结果表明:①中国稀土产业的财政支持效率年平均值为1.313,财政支持对65%的稀土上市公司具有“激励效应”,整体达到了财政支持政策设计目标,但仍对35%的稀土上市公司存在“挤出效应”;②稀土产业链前端和后端的财政支持效率年平均值分别为1.145和1.377,后端的财政支持“激励效应”显著大于前端,财政支持有利于推动稀土产业链向后端延伸;③稀土产业财政支持效率随时间推移整体呈下降趋势,“激励效应”逐渐转为“挤出效应”,专项政策的出台能够在短期内提升财政支持效率,但长期效果有限;④财政支持强度与稀土产业财政支持效率之间呈“倒U型”关系,企业规模对稀土产业财政支持效率具有显著正效应。本文深化了财政支持对中国稀土产业发展效应问题的认识,可为中国稀土产业的差异化财政支持政策制订提供参考。
董娟, 郑明贵, 钟昌标. 中国稀土产业发展财政支持效应及其影响因素[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(8): 1551-1565.
DONG Juan, ZHENG Minggui, ZHONG Changbiao. Effect of government financial support on the development of China’s rare earth industry and influencing factors[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(8): 1551-1565.
表1
变量类型、符号及度量汇总表"
变量类型 | 变量符号 | 变量度量 | 单位 |
---|---|---|---|
投入变量 | x1 | 固定资产净值 | 亿元 |
x2 | 主营业务成本 | 亿元 | |
x3 | 员工总人数 | 人 | |
x4 | 研发支出总额 | 亿元 | |
产出变量 | y | 营业收入 | 亿元 |
环境变量 | W | 计入当期损益的政府补助 | 亿元 |
影响因素 | Sub | 政府补助/营业收入 | % |
Size | 资产总额的自然对数 | — | |
控制变量 | Roe | 净资产收益率 | % |
Fsr | 第一控股股东持股比例 | % | |
Lev | 负债总额/资产总额 | % | |
Own | 当企业控股股东为国家或地方政府时取值为1;否则取值为0 | — | |
Age | 计算年-成立年,并取自然对数 | — | |
Year | 年度虚拟变量。共有10个年度,设置9个虚拟变量。 | — |
表3
2010—2019年中国稀土上市公司财政支持效率"
企业 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 多年均值 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
前端 | 北方稀土 | 1.073 | 1.000 | 0.879 | 0.713 | 0.878 | 0.816 | 0.743 | 0.721 | 0.830 | 0.839 | 0.849 |
广晟有色 | 1.712 | 1.606 | 1.740 | 1.560 | 0.840 | 1.012 | 0.879 | 1.094 | 0.884 | 1.000 | 1.233 | |
厦门钨业 | 0.830 | 0.913 | 0.807 | 0.738 | 0.658 | 0.693 | 0.671 | 0.771 | 1.000 | 0.511 | 0.759 | |
中色股份 | 1.980 | 1.494 | 1.048 | 1.204 | 1.204 | 1.212 | 1.000 | 1.244 | 1.235 | 1.120 | 1.274 | |
五矿稀土 | 1.034 | 1.144 | 1.199 | 1.000 | 2.266 | 1.164 | 1.383 | 1.320 | 1.314 | |||
盛和资源 | 2.874 | 2.137 | 1.689 | 1.511 | 1.035 | 0.806 | 0.830 | 0.841 | 1.465 | |||
后端 | 中科三环 | 1.164 | 0.976 | 0.924 | 0.936 | 0.881 | 0.916 | 0.920 | 0.885 | 0.841 | 0.796 | 0.924 |
中钢天源 | 2.202 | 1.749 | 2.036 | 1.413 | 1.552 | 1.311 | 2.092 | 1.080 | 0.939 | 0.817 | 1.519 | |
银河磁体 | 3.410 | 2.236 | 2.161 | 2.589 | 2.132 | 2.600 | 2.566 | 2.244 | 2.396 | 2.030 | 2.436 | |
宁波韵升 | 1.273 | 1.060 | 1.069 | 1.151 | 1.267 | 1.238 | 1.035 | 1.061 | 1.080 | 1.058 | 1.129 | |
英洛华 | 1.973 | 1.554 | 1.259 | 1.253 | 1.696 | 1.425 | 1.175 | 1.189 | 1.033 | 0.982 | 1.354 | |
有研新材 | 1.954 | 1.444 | 1.731 | 1.000 | 0.652 | 1.022 | 1.000 | 0.949 | 1.087 | 1.000 | 1.184 | |
正海磁材 | 1.505 | 0.984 | 1.285 | 1.663 | 1.458 | 1.126 | 1.010 | 1.279 | 1.076 | 1.041 | 1.243 | |
科恒股份 | 2.907 | 1.389 | 1.920 | 3.014 | 2.705 | 2.333 | 1.313 | 0.968 | 0.826 | 0.870 | 1.824 | |
北矿科技 | 5.291 | 2.783 | 2.910 | 6.757 | 1.000 | 1.989 | 1.635 | 1.171 | 1.137 | 0.875 | 2.555 | |
领益智造 | 2.418 | 1.987 | 1.599 | 1.442 | 1.206 | 0.938 | 1.077 | 0.930 | 1.056 | 1.000 | 1.365 | |
横店东磁 | 1.213 | 0.874 | 0.891 | 0.859 | 0.882 | 0.904 | 0.892 | 0.848 | 0.825 | 0.709 | 0.890 | |
安泰科技 | 0.786 | 0.706 | 0.667 | 0.807 | 0.795 | 0.839 | 0.807 | 0.752 | 0.715 | 0.735 | 0.761 | |
科力远 | 1.202 | 0.910 | 1.189 | 1.257 | 1.147 | 0.581 | 0.983 | 0.260 | 0.867 | 0.879 | 0.927 | |
鸿达兴业 | 1.150 | 1.030 | 1.496 | 0.747 | 0.702 | 0.702 | 0.734 | 0.937 | ||||
均值 | 全行业 | 1.935 | 1.392 | 1.475 | 1.639 | 1.244 | 1.248 | 1.192 | 1.006 | 1.037 | 0.958 | 1.313 |
前端 | 1.399 | 1.254 | 1.397 | 1.250 | 1.078 | 1.041 | 1.099 | 0.967 | 1.027 | 0.939 | 1.145 | |
后端 | 2.100 | 1.435 | 1.511 | 1.806 | 1.315 | 1.337 | 1.232 | 1.023 | 1.041 | 0.966 | 1.377 |
表4
影响因素和控制变量描述性统计"
变量类型 | 符号 | 单位 | 平均值 | 标准差 | 极小值 | 极大值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
因变量 | GE | — | 1.301 | 0.741 | 0.260 | 6.757 |
自变量 | Sub | % | 1.175 | 1.821 | 0.007 | 15.338 |
Size | — | 22.014 | 1.092 | 19.212 | 24.031 | |
控制变量 | Roe | % | 7.050 | 13.986 | -54.110 | 84.670 |
Fsr | % | 34.885 | 11.943 | 14.040 | 91.820 | |
Lev | % | 37.015 | 20.021 | 1.561 | 85.492 | |
Own | — | 0.539 | 0.498 | 0.000 | 1.000 | |
Age | — | 2.862 | 0.297 | 2.079 | 3.784 |
表5
中国稀土产业财政支持效率影响因素回归结果"
变量 | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sub-1 | 4.411*** (2.72) | 9.484*** (2.92) | 4.472* (1.83) | ||
(Sub-1)2 | -48.251* (-1.66) | -15.869* (-1.72) | |||
Size | 0.324*** (7.22) | 0.296*** (7.19) | |||
Roe | -0.531** (-2.29) | -0.261 (-1.37) | -0.256 (-1.38) | 0.158 (0.87) | 0.211 (1.21) |
Fsr | 0.539** (2.31) | 0.495* (1.71) | 0.491* (1.71) | 0.246* (1.88) | 0.184* (1.74) |
Lev | -0.686*** (-4.73) | -0.699*** (-3.54) | -0.651*** (-3.35) | -0.005*** (-3.93) | -0.076*** (-4.44) |
Own | 0.015 (0.16) | 0.190 (1.25) | 0.209 (1.40) | 0.018 (0.24) | 0.019 (0.27) |
Age | -0.204*** (-3.17) | -0.153* (-1.73) | -0.161* (-1.85) | -0.323** (-2.35) | -0.344** (-2.51) |
常数项 | 2.462*** (7.93) | 0.824 (1.59) | 0.701 (1.38) | 0.789* (2.02) | -0.604 (0.95) |
Year | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 |
Wald检验 | 107.15** | 51.66*** | 53.08*** | 123.39*** | 111.05*** |
观测值 | 193 | 173 | 173 | 193 | 173 |
表6
稳健性检验结果"
变量 | 全样本 | 国有企业 | 民营企业 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(6) GMM | (7) DK | (8) FGLS | (9) FGLS | |||
GE-1 | 0.351*** (7.39) | |||||
Sub-1 | 4.672** (2.56) | 3.904** (2.90) | 5.587** (2.39) | 8.622* (1.87) | ||
(Sub-1)2 | -16.189* (-1.92) | -15.461* (-1.78) | -21.491* (-1.76) | -65.313* (-1.75) | ||
Size | 0.238*** (6.20) | 0.227*** (5.69) | 0.290*** (7.02) | 0.440*** (6.66) | ||
Roe | -1.136* (-1.92) | -0.781* (-2.05) | 0.546* (1.75) | 0.052 (0.17) | ||
Fsr | 1.335* (1.72) | 1.256* (1.91) | 0.026* (1.82) | 0.506* (1.78) | ||
Lev | -0.367*** (-2.94) | -0.169*** (-2.79) | -0.571*** (-2.78) | -0.642*** (-2.81) | ||
Own | 0.082 (1.01) | — | — | — | ||
Age | -0.544*** (-3.34) | -0.138* (-1.76) | -0.476* (-1.91) | -0.213** (-2.69) | ||
常数项 | -4.583* (-1.95) | -1.498 (-0.30) | -6.021* (-2.45) | -3.718* (-1.81) | ||
Year | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | ||
Sargan检验 | 0.379 | — | — | — | ||
AR(1)检验 | 0.042** | — | — | — | ||
AR(2)检验 | 0.218 | — | — | — | ||
Wald检验 | 298.37*** | — | 94.66*** | 116.70*** | ||
F统计量 | — | 6961.47*** | — | — | ||
组间R-squared | — | 0.2317 | — | — | ||
观测值 | 173 | 173 | 93 | 80 |
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