清洁能源技术关键金属供应风险评估

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.08.04

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球能源结构转型是实现可持续发展的必由之路,而清洁能源技术的发展依赖于多种关键金属材料。本文选取15种清洁能源技术关键金属,从供应减少、需求增加、地缘政治和社会监管4个维度,构建10个评估指标,对清洁能源技术关键金属的供应风险进行定量评估,保障全球清洁能源技术发展和能源结构转型。研究结果表明：①清洁能源技术关键金属的供应风险均处于中风险以上等级,其中铟、镓、锗3种关键金属处于中高风险水平,锂、钴、镉、硒、钼、钯、铂、铜、铝、锌、铁、钛12种关键金属处于中风险等级。②供应减少风险维度中铟、铁、钼、锌、锗、镉6种关键金属属于中高风险,其中铟的风险最高;需求增加风险维度中铟、镓、锗3种关键金属的风险属于中高风险;地缘政治风险维度中有9种关键金属属于中高风险,其中钴的风险最高;社会监管风险维度中有11种关键金属属于中高风险,其中铟的风险最高。因此,需尽快建立关键金属供应安全常态化风险分类管理机制和二次资源回收管理体系,增进与关键金属供应国间的合作,以缓解清洁能源技术发展的关键金属约束。

关键词: 清洁能源技术, 关键金属, 地缘政治风险, 供应风险, 风险评估

Abstract:

The transformation of the global energy structure is the only way to achieve sustainable development, and the development of clean energy technology relies on a variety of critical metal materials. To ensure the development of global clean energy technology and the transformation of the global energy structure, this paper selects 15 critical metals of clean energy technology, establishes a supply risk assessment system from four dimensions of supply reduction, demand increase, geopolitics and social supervision, including 10 assessment indicators. The results show that: (1) the critical metals of clean energy technology are all at medium- risk or above. Among them, the supply risk assessment of indium, gallium and germanium is at a high risk level; 12 metals supply risks of lithium, cobalt, cadmium, selenium, molybdenum, palladium, platinum, copper, aluminum, zinc, iron and titanium are in medium risk level. (2) In the supply reduction risk dimension, six metals such as indium, iron, molybdenum, zinc, germanium, and cadmium belong to medium and high risks, and the risk of indium is the highest; among the risk dimensions of increased demand, the risks of indium, gallium, and germanium are medium to high risks; In the political risk dimension, 9 metals belong to medium and high risks, and cobalt has the highest risk; in the social regulatory risk dimension, 11 metals belong to medium and high risks, and indium has the highest risk. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a normalized risk classification management mechanism for the supply of critical metals and a secondary resource recovery management system as soon as possible, and enhance cooperation with critical metal suppliers to alleviate critical metal constraints for the development of clean energy technology.

Key words: clean energy technology, critical metals, geopolitical risk, supply risk, risk assessment

黄健柏, 孙芳, 宋益. 清洁能源技术关键金属供应风险评估[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(8): 1477-1488.

HUANG Jianbai, SUN Fang, SONG Yi. Supply risk assessment of critical metals in clean energy technology[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(8): 1477-1488.

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指标	储量/t	资源/t	生产量/t	回收率 /%	伴生金属依赖性/%	未来技术需求/%	可替代性	国家集中度	政治稳定性	政策感知指数	人类发展指数
锂	1.40×10⁷	6.20×10⁷	8.5×10⁴	1	52	390	59	0.42	1.06	69.73	0.88
钴	6.90×10⁶	1.45×10⁸	1.4×10⁵	68	85	90	46	0.45	-1.09	41.74	0.56
铟	1.88×10⁴	1.25×10⁵	7.5×10²	1	100	289	40	0.27	0.49	48.24	0.84
镓	1.50×10⁶	（2.75~3.75）×10⁶	4.1×10²	1	100	581	62	0.91	-0.32	38.17	0.75
锗	4.50×10²	2.50×10³	1.2×10²	2	100	213	56	0.51	-0.25	42.43	0.74
镉	5.00×10⁵	（4.75~9.5）×10⁶	2.6×10⁴	15	100	0	62	0.18	0.28	50.61	0.82
硒	9.90×10⁴	9.60×10⁵	2.8×10³	5	100	11	53	0.22	0.59	49.24	0.84
钼	1.70×10⁷	2.54×10⁷	3.0×10⁵	30	46	0	30	0.27	0.20	58.19	0.80
钯	3.45×10⁴	5.00×10⁴	2.1×10²	14	97	24	61	0.29	-0.08	55.23	0.77
铂	3.45×10⁴	5.00×10⁴	1.6×10²	14	16	156	34	0.47	0.03	47.22	0.72
铜	8.30×10⁸	5.60×10⁹	2.1×10⁷	53	9	15	30	0.16	0.11	62.41	0.76
铝	3.00×10¹⁰	5.50×10¹⁰	3.0×10⁸	60	0	0	56	0.35	-0.28	47.74	0.77
锌	2.30×10⁸	1.90×10⁹	1.3×10⁷	31	10	0	62	0.18	-0.09	53.96	0.77
铁	8.40×10¹⁰	2.30×10¹¹	4.0×10⁹t	67	1	0	43	0.20	-0.32	60.03	0.82
钛	9.40×10⁸	2.00×10⁹	6.1×10⁶	1	0	21	37	0.10	0.06	57.92	0.74