资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 1210-1222.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.06.17
• 旅游资源 • 上一篇
方琰1(), DanielScott2, RobertSteiger3, 吴必虎4(
), 蒋依依1
收稿日期:
2019-07-25
修回日期:
2020-01-16
出版日期:
2020-06-25
发布日期:
2020-08-25
通讯作者:
吴必虎
作者简介:
方琰,女,江西上饶人,师资博士后,博士,主要从事气候变化与旅游、冰雪产业研究。E-mail: 基金资助:
FANG Yan1(), Daniel SCOTT2, Robert STEIGER3, WU Bihu4(
), JIANG Yiyi1
Received:
2019-07-25
Revised:
2020-01-16
Online:
2020-06-25
Published:
2020-08-25
Contact:
WU Bihu
摘要:
在全球气候变暖背景下,人工造雪是滑雪场经营者有效应对气候变化的重要措施。本文假定人工造雪适宜温度由现有的-5℃提升到-2℃,基于气象站点观测数据(1981—2010年)和IPCC AR5的RCPs未来情景数据,通过改进的SkiSim 2.0模型评估气候变化背景下人工造雪技术提升对中国滑雪季节长度的影响。研究表明:①在气候变化背景下,人工造雪技术提升将使得中国平均滑雪季节长度增加3%~12%,即使在2080s时期最高温室气体排放情景下(RCP 8.5),78%的滑雪场能拥有超过100 d的滑雪季节长度;②受气候变化影响越大的滑雪场(如华北、华东、华中),人工造雪技术提升使其滑雪季节长度增加越多;而人工造雪技术提升对受气候变化影响小的滑雪场(如东北、西北)作用有限;③地理环境条件是影响滑雪季节长度的根本因素,无论人工造雪技术是否提升,气候变化背景下中国100 d滑雪季节长度的地理分界线均为长白山—阴山—祁连山—天山。为适应及减缓气候变化的潜在影响,相关部门应致力于提升人工造雪技术,从供给侧保证中国滑雪旅游产业的可持续发展。
方琰, DanielScott, RobertSteiger, 吴必虎, 蒋依依. 气候变化背景下人工造雪技术提升对中国滑雪季节长度的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(6): 1210-1222.
FANG Yan, Daniel SCOTT, Robert STEIGER, WU Bihu, JIANG Yiyi. Impact of snow-making technology improvement on ski season length in China under climate change[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(6): 1210-1222.
表4
中国主要省份滑雪季节长度变化比例"
区域 | 省份 | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020s | 2050s | 2080s | 2020s | 2050s | 2080s | |||||||||||||
现有技术 | 提升技术 | 现有技术 | 提升技术 | 现有技术 | 提升技术 | 现有技术 | 提升技术 | 现有技术 | 提升技术 | 现有技术 | 提升技术 | |||||||
华北 | 北京 | -19 | -7 | -61 | -21 | -80 | -39 | -22 | -8 | -79 | -37 | -97 | -86 | |||||
山西 | -8 | -4 | -23 | -11 | -40 | -16 | -8 | -5 | -40 | -17 | -68 | -54 | ||||||
天津 | -5 | -4 | -14 | -10 | -22 | -15 | -6 | -5 | -23 | -16 | -64 | -35 | ||||||
内蒙古 | -1 | -1 | -4 | -4 | -6 | -6 | -1 | 0 | -6 | -6 | -13 | -12 | ||||||
河北 | -7 | -3 | -15 | -7 | -20 | -13 | -7 | -2 | -19 | -13 | -31 | -27 | ||||||
东北 | 黑龙江 | -1 | -1 | -4 | -3 | -5 | -4 | -2 | -1 | -6 | -5 | -10 | -8 | |||||
吉林 | -2 | -1 | -5 | -3 | -9 | -6 | -2 | -1 | -9 | -5 | -17 | -14 | ||||||
辽宁 | -4 | -4 | -13 | -10 | -19 | -13 | -6 | -5 | -19 | -14 | -33 | -32 | ||||||
西北 | 新疆 | -2 | -2 | -5 | -4 | -7 | -6 | -2 | -2 | -8 | -6 | -16 | -13 | |||||
甘肃 | -5 | -3 | -9 | -8 | -13 | -12 | -4 | -3 | -13 | -11 | -25 | -22 | ||||||
宁夏 | -3 | -3 | -10 | -10 | -14 | -14 | -3 | -4 | -14 | -14 | -30 | -25 | ||||||
青海 | -1 | -1 | -5 | -4 | -8 | -6 | -6 | -2 | -8 | -6 | -21 | -17 | ||||||
陕西 | -8 | -5 | -23 | -11 | -34 | -17 | -9 | -6 | -36 | -17 | -65 | -41 | ||||||
华东 | 山东 | -18 | -7 | -54 | -23 | -76 | -39 | -23 | -7 | -75 | -38 | -95 | -85 | |||||
华中 | 河南 | -21 | -8 | -51 | -20 | -66 | -33 | -22 | -8 | -68 | -35 | -92 | -75 |
表5
人工造雪技术提升使中国主要省份滑雪季节长度增加的情况"
区域 | 省份 | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020s | 2050s | 2080s | 2020s | 2050s | 2080s | |||
华北 | 北京 | 29 | 47 | 45 | 31 | 46 | 12 | |
山西 | 13 | 22 | 34 | 13 | 33 | 20 | ||
天津 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 35 | ||
内蒙古 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | ||
河北 | 15 | 20 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 12 | ||
东北 | 黑龙江 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | |
吉林 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | ||
辽宁 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 10 | ||
西北 | 新疆 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | |
甘肃 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | ||
宁夏 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 15 | ||
青海 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 10 | ||
陕西 | 13 | 23 | 29 | 14 | 31 | 34 | ||
华东 | 山东 | 32 | 41 | 41 | 34 | 41 | 11 | |
华中 | 河南 | 32 | 42 | 41 | 32 | 41 | 19 |
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