资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 1199-1209.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.06.16
收稿日期:
2019-07-12
修回日期:
2019-10-28
出版日期:
2020-06-25
发布日期:
2020-08-25
作者简介:
敖长林,男,黑龙江杜蒙县人,教授,研究方向为生态环境管理、评价理论与方法。E-mail: 基金资助:
AO Changlin(), WANG Jingxia, SUN Baosheng
Received:
2019-07-12
Revised:
2019-10-28
Online:
2020-06-25
Published:
2020-08-25
摘要:
基于大数据探究空气质量对公众外出游玩的影响,不仅可以丰富空气质量议题的实践研究,还对加强空气污染治理、促进旅游产业发展具有重要意义。本文以哈尔滨市为研究对象,采用携程旅行网16554条在线评论数据、环保部空气质量指数数据以及历史天气数据,基于负二项回归与有序Probit回归分别构建公众外出游玩次数与游玩满意度模型,定量评估空气质量对公众外出游玩的影响及影响程度。研究结果表明:①在控制温度、风速、节假日等影响因素不变的基础上,空气质量会显著影响公众外出游玩次数和满意度;②公众外出游玩次数会随着空气污染程度的增加而显著减少,与空气质量为优相比,游玩次数在“严重空气污染”时下降40.1%,在“空气质量为良”时下降15.1%;③针对哈尔滨市旅游景区,严重空气污染会显著降低公众外出游玩满意度,而较低程度的空气污染对公众外出游玩满意度不具有显著影响。研究不仅为准确评估空气质量对公众外出行为的影响提供新视角,也为相关空气污染防治及旅游政策的制定提供参考。
敖长林, 王菁霞, 孙宝生. 基于大数据的空气质量对公众外出游玩影响研究[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(6): 1199-1209.
AO Changlin, WANG Jingxia, SUN Baosheng. Impact of air quality on public outings based on big data[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(6): 1199-1209.
表1
空气质量指数及其他控制变量分类结果"
属性 | 分类 | 属性 | 分类 |
---|---|---|---|
空气质量指数 AQI | [0, 50] | 降水量 precipitation/mm | =0 |
[51, 100] | (0, 25] | ||
[101, 150] | (25, ∞) | ||
[151, 200] | 雪 snow | =0无雪 | |
[201, 300] | =1有雪 | ||
(300, ∞) | 雨 rain | =0无雨 | |
温度 temperature/℃ | (-∞, -7] | =1有雨 | |
(-7, 5] | 供暖季 season | =0非供暖季 | |
(5, 21] | =1供暖季 | ||
(21, 38] | 节假日 holiday | =0非节假日 | |
风速 wind speed/(m/s) | (-∞, 1.5] | =1节假日 | |
(1.5, 3.3] | 周末 weekend | =0非周末 | |
(3.3, 5.4] | =1周末 | ||
(5.4, 7.9] | 门票价格 price/元 | [0, 100] | |
(7.9, 10.7] | (100, 200] | ||
能见度 visibility/km | (-∞, 2] | (200, ∞) | |
(2, 10] | |||
( 10, ∞) |
表2
参数估计及检验结果"
变量 | 负二项回归 | 贝叶斯负二项回归(正态先验) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
系数 | 标准误 | 系数 | 标准误 | ||
常数项 | 3.875*** | 0.234 | 3.872*** | 0.239 | |
节假日 | 0.900*** | 0.086 | 0.902*** | 0.090 | |
雪 | 0.006 | 0.090 | 0.009 | 0.090 | |
雨 | 0.044 | 0.071 | 0.043 | 0.071 | |
周末 | 0.064 | 0.051 | 0.063 | 0.052 | |
供暖季 | -0.188** | 0.087 | -0.187** | 0.090 | |
AQI [51, 100] | -0.164*** | 0.062 | -0.162** | 0.063 | |
AQI [101, 150] | -0.285*** | 0.089 | -0.281*** | 0.092 | |
AQI [151, 200] | -0.269** | 0.131 | -0.263* | 0.135 | |
AQI [201, 300] | -0.449*** | 0.153 | -0.434*** | 0.153 | |
AQI (300, ∞) | -0.513** | 0.227 | -0.491** | 0.235 | |
温度(-7, 5] | -0.503*** | 0.074 | -0.502*** | 0.075 | |
温度(5, 21] | -0.592*** | 0.088 | -0.590*** | 0.088 | |
温度(21, 38] | -0.024 | 0.121 | -0.018 | 0.121 | |
风速(1.5, 3.3] | -0.147 | 0.094 | -0.147 | 0.095 | |
风速(3.3, 5.4] | -0.292*** | 0.100 | -0.292*** | 0.102 | |
风速(5.4, 7.9] | -0.174 | 0.143 | -0.171 | 0.146 | |
风速(7.9, 10.7] | -0.351 | 0.323 | -0.315 | 0.324 | |
能见度(2, 10] | 0.030 | 0.205 | 0.029 | 0.210 | |
能见度(10, ∞) | -0.076 | 0.219 | -0.075 | 0.224 | |
降水量(0, 25] | -0.101 | 0.069 | -0.100 | 0.070 | |
降水量(25, ∞) | -0.382 | 0.353 | -0.332 | 0.358 | |
AIC | 5276.6 | —— | |||
McFadden R 2 | 0.289 | —— | |||
MSE | 1.059 | 333.462 |
表3
有序Probit回归参数估计及检验结果"
变量 | 系数 | 标准误 |
---|---|---|
AQI [51, 100] | 0.031 | 0.032 |
AQI [101, 150] | 0.014 | 0.048 |
AQI [151, 200] | -0.039 | 0.072 |
AQI [201, 300] | -0.085 | 0.087 |
AQI (300, ∞) | -0.679*** | 0.121 |
温度(-7, 5] | -0.073 | 0.046 |
温度(5, 21] | -0.105** | 0.051 |
温度(21, 38] | -0.047 | 0.065 |
风速(1.5, 3.3] | -0.027 | 0.051 |
风速(3.3, 5.4] | -0.015 | 0.055 |
风速(5.4, 7.9] | -0.019 | 0.078 |
风速(7.9, 10.7] | -0.045 | 0.170 |
能见度(2, 10] | -0.079 | 0.120 |
能见度(10, ∞) | -0.073 | 0.128 |
降水量(0, 25] | 0.057 | 0.038 |
降水量(25, ∞) | -0.305** | 0.125 |
门票价格(100, 200] | 0.025 | 0.037 |
门票价格(200, ∞) | -0.182*** | 0.051 |
景区等级 | 0.008 | 0.007 |
节假日 | -0.008 | 0.046 |
雪 | -0.054 | 0.052 |
雨 | 0.031 | 0.038 |
周末 | 0.034 | 0.029 |
供暖季 | 0.091* | 0.050 |
AIC | 16447 |
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