资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 1162-1174.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.06.13

• 水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

跨界水冲突、合作与全球水政治关系时空演化

卢函1,2(), 杜德斌1,2(), 桂钦昌1,2, 段德忠1,2   

  1. 1.华东师范大学世界地理与地缘战略研究中心,上海 200062
    2.华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院,上海 200062
  • 收稿日期:2020-01-16 修回日期:2020-04-08 出版日期:2020-06-25 发布日期:2020-08-25
  • 通讯作者: 杜德斌
  • 作者简介:卢函,女,河南安阳人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为世界地理与地缘政治。E-mail: luhan@stu.ecnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)(XDA20100311);国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA087)

Spatiotemporal evolution of transboundary water conflict, cooperation, and global hydro-political relations

LU Han1,2(), DU Debin1,2(), GUI Qinchang1,2, DUAN Dezhong1,2   

  1. 1. Center for Geopolitical and Strategic Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    2. Institute for Global Innovation and Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2020-01-16 Revised:2020-04-08 Online:2020-06-25 Published:2020-08-25
  • Contact: DU Debin

摘要:

全球水资源危机不断凸显,水资源矛盾不断激化,国家(地区)间水政治关系已成为国际社会亟需面对和解决的复杂地缘关系之一。基于1948—2008年国际水事件数据库数据,以“嵌入型”视角从冲突、合作两个方面解构了全球水政治关系,并从网络关系特征和空间演化特征两个方面厘清了全球水政治格局的动态变化趋势。结果显示:①国家(地区)间水冲突网络与水合作网络热点区域在空间上发生了明显位移,水冲突网络热点由中亚向南亚、东南亚转移,而南亚、东南亚地区亦逐渐成为水合作的热点区;②国家(地区)间水冲突网络与水合作网络均表现为显著的核心—边缘结构,各个圈层间存在明显的更迭过程;③国家(地区)间水政治关系网络社团分化明显,相较于国家(地区)间水冲突的社团集聚模式,国家(地区)间水合作网络社团结构更为紧密,地理邻近特征更显著;④根据国家(地区)间水政治关系值,可将水政治双边关系分为紧张关系、友好关系和相对和缓关系。美洲地区前期水政治友好关系突出,东南亚国家后期水政治友好互动频繁,中东地区水政治关系较为紧张。

关键词: 水政治关系, 水冲突, 水合作, 社会网络分析, 时空演化, 全球

Abstract:

Global warming is accelerating the reshaping of the global natural and ecological environments. Water resources conflicts are intensifying, and hydro-political relations have become one of the most urgent and complex geo-relationships that countries and the international community need to face and handle. From the perspective of social networks, states’ hydro-political power is determined not only by the location, but also by the position of the hydro-political network. Based on the data of the International Water Event Database (IWED) from 1948 to 2008, the global hydro-political relationship was deconstructed from the perspective of conflict and cooperation and “embedded”, and the dynamics of global hydro-political structure were clarified from two aspects: network relationship characteristics and spatial evolution characteristics. The results show that: (1) Water conflict network and water cooperation network hotspots showed a significant spatial displacement. Water conflict network hotspots shifted from Central Asia to South Asia and Southeast Asia, while South Asia and Southeast Asia have gradually become the hotspots for water cooperation; (2) The inter-country water conflict network and the inter-country water cooperation network both showed obvious core-periphery structure, and there were obvious replacing processes among different circles; (3) The inter-country hydro-political relation network can be divided into several communities compared with the community agglomeration mode of water conflict among countries, the inter-country water cooperation network community structure is more compact, showing a broader geographical span; (4) The situation of international water political relations can be roughly divided into three stages: the tense stage of the 1940s and the 1970s, the quiet stage of the 1980s, and the stage of violent fluctuations after the 1990s. According to the value of inter-country hydro-political relations, the hydro-political bilateral relationship can be divided into in tension relationship, friendly relationship, and relatively stable relationship. International water events are mainly based on cooperation, and friendly relationships are the mainstream of bilateral relations in hydro-political relations.

Key words: hydro-political relations, water conflict, water cooperation, social network analysis, spatiotemporal evolution, global