资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 1027-1039.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.06.02

• 碳排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球贸易隐含碳净流动网络构建及社团发现分析

李晖1(), 姜文磊1, 唐志鹏2()   

  1. 1.青岛大学经济学院,青岛266061
    2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2019-07-26 修回日期:2020-05-10 出版日期:2020-06-25 发布日期:2020-08-25
  • 通讯作者: 唐志鹏
  • 作者简介:李晖,女,山东青岛人,副教授,主要从事投入产出技术与资源环境经济研究。E-mail: lihui@amss.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(41661144023);青岛市博士后应用研究项目(2016038)

Net embodied carbon flow network in global trade and community finding analysis

LI Hui1(), JIANG Wenlei1, TANG Zhipeng2()   

  1. 1. School of Economics, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266061, China
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2019-07-26 Revised:2020-05-10 Online:2020-06-25 Published:2020-08-25
  • Contact: TANG Zhipeng

摘要:

采用Eora数据库和MRIO多区域投入产出模型对2000年与2015年189个国家(地区)的国(区)内需求隐含碳排放量、出口隐含碳排放量和进口隐含碳排放量进行测算;在此基础上构建全球贸易隐含碳净流动网络,基于网络视角对全球贸易隐含碳流动及社团划分问题进行全局分析,揭示不同国家(地区)在全球贸易隐含碳流动网络中的地位及关系演变趋势。研究发现:①贸易隐含碳净流出是中国、印度、伊朗、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚、南非等发展中国家碳排放快速增长的关键原因之一,隐含碳净进口则对美国、日本、德国、英国、法国等发达国家的碳排放量下降贡献了重要力量;②虽然美国、日本、法国等国家的隐含碳净进口总量趋于下降,但是从中国、印度等主要隐含碳净进口地流入的隐含碳排放量却一直在增长,净进口来源地呈现集中趋势;③2000年与2015年全球隐含碳净流动网络均包含4个主要社团,社团核心由中国、俄罗斯、沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克转变为中国、印度、俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯,其中中国和印度的社团核心地位加强,主导的社团规模不断扩大,俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯的社团辐射能力则有所减弱。由于处于同一社团的各贸易国(地区)的隐含碳流动更为密切,因此,社团内部成员国可作为国际应对气候变化的重点支持对象。

关键词: 贸易隐含碳, 多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型, 投入产出技术, 网络分析, 社团发现算法

Abstract:

Using the Eora database and Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) model, this study calculated the embodied carbon emissions induced by domestic demand, export, and import of 189 countries (regions) in the world in 2000 and 2015. Based on this, net flow networks of embodied carbon emissions in global trade were constructed, carbon emissions flow problem was analyzed globally from the network perspective, and the status and relationship evolution trend of different countries (regions) in the global trade embodied carbon network was revealed. It is found that the net export of embodied carbon emission in trade was one of the key reasons for the rapid growth of carbon emissions in China, India, Iran, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and other developing countries (regions), while the net import of embodied carbon emission through trade contributed to the decline of carbon emissions in the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and other developed countries (regions). Although the total net imports of embodied carbon emission in the United States, Japan, France, and other countries (regions) tend to decline, the embodied carbon emissions they import from China, India, and other major embodied carbon net export places have been increasing, and the sources of net imports are concentrated. In 2000 and 2015, there are four major communities in the global net embodied carbon flow network. The core of community changes from China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq to China, India, Russia and Saudi Arabia. The core status of China and India is strengthened, the size of their leading communities has continued to expand, while the community radiation capacity of Russia and Saudi Arabia has been weakened. Community core plays an important role in controlling and reducing embodied carbon emissions in global trade. China, India and other core countries (regions) should strive to reduce the carbon content per unit of energy-intensive products. Because the embodied carbon flow of trading countries (regions) in the same community is closer, the member countries of the same community can be the key support object of international response to climate change.

Key words: embodied carbon emission in trade, Multi- Regional Input- Output (MRIO) model, Input-Output technology, network analysis, community finding algorithm