中国省域生态福利绩效评估及其驱动效应分解

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.05.04

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以最少的自然消耗实现人类福祉最大化,促进可持续的福祉提升,是生态福利绩效概念的核心内涵。本文通过构建生态福利绩效模型,将生态福利绩效模型分解为经济增长的福利效应和经济增长的生态效率两个驱动效应,应用DI指数和DEA-ML指数分别对影响中国31个省域经济增长的福利效应和经济增长的生态效率进行了测算及分析。研究表明：① 2006—2016年中国人类发展水平大幅提高,在空间上呈“京津沪率先提升,然后由东向西”拓展态势。② 2006—2016年中国人类发展水平的增速明显慢于人均生态足迹增速,使得中国生态福利绩效整体呈下降趋势。③中国人类福祉增长与经济增长相对脱钩,人类福祉增速慢于经济增速。中国31个省域分为中福祉增长和低福祉增长两类,其中内蒙古、黑龙江、广西、海南、贵州、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、西藏、云南11个省域为中福祉增长类型,其他20个省域属于低福祉增长类型。④ 2006—2016年中国传统全要素生产率和绿色全要素生产率都有不同程度的提高,但绿色全要素生产率一直低于传统全要素生产率,表明经济增长付出的资源环境代价影响了中国经济增长质量。⑤中国生态福利绩效提升整体由福利效应和生态效率共同驱动,根据驱动效应分解和生态福利绩效的变化情况,本文将中国31个省域生态福利绩效分为经济主导提升型、福祉带动提升型、福祉滞后下降型、经济滞后下降型、总体下降型5种类型。本文深化了对生态福利绩效变化的驱动效应的认识,对中国不同类型省域采取差异化的生态福利绩效提升策略提供参考。

关键词: 生态福利绩效, 人类发展指数（HDI）, 人类福祉, 生态足迹, 绿色全要素生产率, 驱动效应

Abstract:

It is the core connotation of the concept of ecological well-being performance to maximize human well-being with minimum natural consumption and promote sustainable well-being. This study constructed a model of ecological well-being performance and decomposed ecological well-being performance into two driving effects, namely, the well-being effect of economic growth and the ecological efficiency of economic growth. The well-being effect of economic growth and the ecological efficiency of economic growth, which affect the change of ecological well-being performance in 31 provinces of China’s mainland, were calculated and analyzed by using the decoupling index (DI) and the DEA-ML index models respectively. The results show that: (1) From 2006 to 2016, the level of human development in China had been greatly improved, showing the characteristics of leading by Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai Municipalities and expanding from east to west. (2) From 2006 to 2016, the growth rate of human development level in China was significantly slower than that of per capita ecological footprint. China’s ecological well-being performance showed a downward trend as a whole. (3) China’s human well-being growth was relatively decoupled from economic growth. Human well-being growth slower than economic growth. China’s 31 provinces are divided into two categories: medium well-being growth and low well-being growth, 11 of which are Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Hainan, Guizhou, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Tibet and Yunnan belong to the medium well-being growth, while the other 20 belong to the low well-being growth. (4) From 2006 to 2016, China’s traditional total factor productivity and green total factor productivity improved to varying degrees, but green total factor productivity had always been lower than traditional total factor productivity. It shows that the cost of resources and environment paid by economic growth affects the quality of China’s economic growth. (5) On the whole, the performance improvement of ecological well-being in China was driven by the well-being effect of economic growth and the ecological efficiency of economic growth, based on the decomposition of driving effect and the change of ecological well-being performance of 31 provinces in China can be divided into five types: economic-led improvement type, well-being driven improvement type, well-being lagged decline type, economic lagged decline type, and overall decline type. This paper deepens the understanding of the driving effect of the change of ecological well-being performance, and provides reference for different provinces in China to adopt different strategies to improve ecological well-being performance.

Key words: ecological well-being performance, human development index (HDI), human well-being, ecological footprint, green total factor productivity, driving effect

王圣云, 韩亚杰, 任慧敏, 李晶. 中国省域生态福利绩效评估及其驱动效应分解[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(5): 840-855.

WANG Shengyun, HAN Yajie, REN Huimin, Li Jing. Evaluation of provincial ecological well-being performance and its driving effect decomposition in China[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(5): 840-855.

图/表 9

表1

表2

2006—2016年中国省域生态福利绩效变化"

	2006年	2007年	2008年	2009年	2010年	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	年均增长率/%
全国	3.01	2.88	2.79	2.72	2.62	2.43	2.39	2.40	2.42	2.43	2.44	-2.12
北京	3.54	3.58	3.62	3.78	4.02	4.37	4.45	4.89	5.15	5.37	5.89	6.65
天津	2.17	2.17	2.29	2.25	2.04	1.96	2.03	2.05	2.24	2.34	2.55	1.74
河北	2.51	2.38	2.33	2.24	2.19	1.98	1.98	1.99	2.08	2.12	2.20	-1.22
上海	2.66	2.77	2.68	2.8	2.69	2.66	2.74	2.64	2.96	2.89	3.18	1.96
江苏	2.89	2.80	2.75	2.71	2.57	2.33	2.30	2.27	2.30	2.25	2.26	-2.18
浙江	2.89	2.88	2.85	2.81	2.78	2.64	2.71	2.70	2.74	2.72	2.88	-0.02
福建	2.86	2.91	2.86	2.65	2.65	2.45	2.46	2.50	2.32	2.34	2.48	-1.35
山东	2.27	2.16	2.06	2.03	1.98	1.91	1.85	1.94	1.87	1.82	1.82	-1.96
广东	3.88	3.92	3.84	3.70	3.51	3.33	3.39	3.44	3.51	3.56	3.64	-0.61
海南	2.50	2.28	2.21	2.16	2.21	2.03	1.98	2.04	1.94	1.88	1.99	-2.02
辽宁	1.72	1.72	1.67	1.64	1.57	1.48	1.44	1.47	1.50	1.52	1.54	-1.02
吉林	2.54	2.69	2.39	2.47	2.30	2.04	2.06	2.08	2.11	2.19	2.28	-1.04
黑龙江	2.60	2.53	2.29	2.24	2.12	1.98	1.93	1.98	1.92	1.92	1.94	-2.55
山西	1.40	1.37	1.43	1.47	1.46	1.35	1.30	1.27	1.25	1.27	1.33	-0.51
安徽	3.99	3.91	3.62	3.43	3.34	3.25	3.13	2.99	2.88	2.90	3.04	-2.38
江西	4.37	4.30	4.26	4.19	4.04	3.82	3.77	3.66	3.53	3.45	3.63	-1.70
河南	3.58	3.37	3.35	3.33	3.20	3.00	3.16	3.16	3.11	3.09	3.22	-1.01
湖北	3.35	3.19	3.20	3.09	2.92	2.70	2.65	2.92	2.84	2.87	3.02	-0.98
湖南	4.17	4.00	4.00	3.89	3.99	3.70	3.69	3.84	3.81	3.74	3.93	-0.57
广西	3.11	2.98	2.95	3.00	2.84	2.63	2.48	2.50	2.51	2.62	2.77	-1.09
重庆	4.94	4.19	4.07	3.93	3.69	3.57	3.62	4.03	3.85	3.83	4.17	-1.57
四川	4.95	4.62	4.46	4.20	4.26	4.24	4.17	4.12	3.92	4.11	4.40	-1.12
贵州	2.85	2.90	2.95	2.80	2.95	2.82	2.63	2.61	2.76	2.76	2.76	-0.32
云南	3.34	3.23	3.11	3.03	3.16	3.05	3.01	3.05	3.47	3.74	3.73	1.17
西藏	7.46	8.45	16.61	17.86	18.41	10.45	11.54	12.16	10.59	10.78	10.56	4.15
陕西	3.69	3.42	3.19	3.02	2.72	2.52	2.25	2.22	2.12	2.14	2.11	-4.28
甘肃	3.30	3.16	3.17	3.30	3.17	2.87	2.82	2.74	2.84	2.88	3.08	-0.66
青海	3.27	2.72	2.67	2.72	2.88	2.58	2.25	2.12	2.41	2.59	2.39	-2.69
宁夏	1.51	1.43	1.37	1.30	1.18	0.93	0.89	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.91	-3.97
新疆	2.00	1.95	1.86	1.69	1.64	1.45	1.29	1.19	1.11	1.12	1.16	-4.20
内蒙古	1.29	1.23	1.07	1.04	1.01	0.83	0.81	0.83	0.81	0.82	0.86	-3.32

表2

图1

图2

图3

图4

表3

中国省域经济增长的福利效应类型划分"

类型	划分标准	省份
低福祉增长	0 $≤$ DI $≤$ 0.1	北京、天津、河北、辽宁、吉林、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、广东、山东、河南、湖北、重庆、四川、陕西、安徽、江西、湖南、山西
中福祉增长	0.1 $<$ DI $<$ 1	内蒙古、黑龙江、广西、海南、贵州、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、西藏、云南
高福祉增长	DI $≥$ 1	—
福祉负增长	DI $<$ 0	—

表3

表4

中国省域全要素生产率和绿色全要素生产率比较"

	全要素生产率TFP									绿色全要素生产率GTFP
	2006—2007年				2015—2016年					2006—2007年				2015—2016年
	TECH	SECH	PECH	TFP	TECH	SECH	PECH	TFP	TECH		SECH	PECH	GTFP	TECH	SECH	PECH	GTFP
全国	1.066	1.069	1.787	2.036	1.460	1.509	0.663	1.460		0.957	1.268	1.524	1.849	1.370	1.509	0.663	1.370
北京	1.019	1.168	1.036	1.233	1.555	0.788	1.270	1.555		1.035	1.195	1.033	1.175	1.053	1.001	1.000	1.053
天津	0.994	0.712	1.567	1.203	1.360	1.038	0.963	1.359		1.124	1.004	1.047	1.181	1.287	0.747	1.338	1.287
河北	1.013	1.259	1.105	1.409	9.853	0.146	6.842	9.853		0.930	1.567	0.899	1.309	4.080	0.208	4.815	4.080
山西	1.033	1.205	1.128	1.404	2.987	1.180	0.847	2.985		0.933	1.205	1.173	1.320	2.643	0.597	1.675	2.643
内蒙古	1.070	0.954	1.000	1.021	0.135	7.602	0.132	0.135		1.054	1.033	1.000	1.088	0.165	7.602	0.132	0.165
辽宁	1.007	1.161	1.143	1.336	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000		0.924	1.468	0.956	1.297	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
吉林	1.063	1.178	1.238	1.551	8.936	0.611	1.637	8.936		0.947	1.755	1.008	1.675	1.125	1.496	0.669	1.125
黑龙江	1.064	1.075	1.078	1.234	1.000	3.562	0.281	1.000		0.946	1.426	0.878	1.184	1.000	3.214	0.311	1.000
上海	1.013	1.160	1.000	1.176	0.910	0.901	1.110	0.910		1.113	1.001	1.000	1.114	0.910	0.901	1.110	0.910
江苏	1.047	1.304	0.852	1.163	1.570	0.873	1.146	1.570		1.001	1.354	0.851	1.154	1.449	0.873	1.146	1.449
浙江	0.979	1.178	1.032	1.190	2.348	0.796	1.257	2.348		1.016	1.144	1.023	1.190	1.999	0.797	1.255	1.999
安徽	1.045	0.952	1.020	1.015	2.114	0.826	1.210	2.114		0.966	1.135	0.948	1.040	2.850	0.826	1.210	2.850
福建	1.030	0.729	1.244	0.934	3.120	0.880	1.137	3.120		0.943	1.034	0.973	0.948	2.631	0.880	1.137	2.631
江西	1.018	1.139	1.018	1.181	2.363	0.778	1.286	2.363		0.954	1.291	0.950	1.169	3.400	0.779	1.284	3.400
山东	1.061	1.227	1.022	1.330	2.831	1.009	0.992	2.831		1.042	1.207	1.014	1.275	2.274	1.009	0.992	2.274
河南	1.085	1.155	0.924	1.158	1.901	0.689	1.451	1.901		0.979	1.297	0.886	1.124	2.228	0.726	1.377	2.228
湖北	1.034	0.934	1.183	1.142	1.659	0.906	1.103	1.659		0.966	1.188	0.967	1.109	3.860	0.906	1.103	3.860
湖南	1.024	0.844	1.048	0.906	1.905	1.000	1.000	1.905		0.942	1.072	0.861	0.870	3.541	1.000	1.000	3.541
广东	0.924	0.985	0.817	0.743	2.617	0.666	1.501	2.617		0.914	0.985	0.903	0.814	2.218	0.682	1.466	2.218
广西	1.071	1.124	1.065	1.283	3.027	0.827	1.209	3.027		0.990	1.293	0.968	1.238	1.279	1.206	0.829	1.279
海南	1.036	1.045	0.674	0.730	2.670	0.527	1.898	2.670		1.036	1.059	0.691	0.758	2.168	0.540	1.851	2.168
重庆	1.000	0.684	0.708	0.484	2.067	0.919	1.088	2.067		1.000	0.771	0.708	0.546	1.778	0.919	1.088	1.778
四川	1.083	0.952	1.026	1.058	1.000	1.172	0.854	1.000		1.012	1.135	0.885	1.017	1.000	1.039	0.963	1.000
贵州	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.063	1.057	0.946	1.063		1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.012	1.057	0.946	1.012
云南	1.020	1.074	1.063	1.165	3.075	0.830	1.205	3.075		0.956	1.257	1.095	1.316	0.477	1.029	0.971	0.477
西藏	1.951	0.915	0.800	1.429	1.501	0.861	1.162	1.501		1.904	1.000	1.000	1.904	1.255	0.861	1.162	1.255
陕西	1.056	0.902	0.822	0.783	5.344	0.275	3.632	5.344		1.016	1.002	0.826	0.841	3.339	0.279	3.589	3.339
甘肃	1.010	0.781	0.914	0.721	2.241	0.638	1.566	2.240		0.956	0.841	0.867	0.697	1.386	0.276	3.622	1.386
青海	1.123	1.045	1.075	1.261	3.265	0.470	2.127	3.265		1.123	1.045	1.075	1.261	0.421	1.000	1.000	0.421
宁夏	0.820	1.000	1.000	0.820	2.427	0.656	1.524	2.427		0.820	1.000	1.000	0.820	2.047	0.648	1.544	2.047
新疆	1.035	1.086	0.851	0.956	2.250	0.835	1.198	2.250		1.037	1.113	0.845	0.975	1.959	0.835	1.198	1.959

表4

表5

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因子	耕地	林地	草地	建设用地	渔业用地	化石燃料用地
等价因子	2.21	1.34	0.49	2.21	0.20	1.34
产量因子	2.80	1.10	0.50	2.80	0.20	1.10

类型	特征	省份
经济主导提升型	低福祉增长、高绿色全要素生产率、生态福利绩效提升	北京、天津、上海
福祉带动提升型	中福祉增长、低绿色全要素生产率、生态福利绩效提升	云南、西藏
福祉滞后下降型	低福祉增长、高绿色全要素生产率、生态福利绩效下降	辽宁、河北、江苏、浙江、福建、广东、山东、河南、湖北、四川、陕西、安徽、湖南、江西
经济滞后下降型	中福祉增长、低绿色全要素生产率、生态福利绩效下降	海南、广西、贵州、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、黑龙江、内蒙古
总体下降型	低福祉增长、低绿色全要素生产率、生态福利绩效下降	吉林、山西、重庆