资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (5): 825-839.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.05.03

• 资源经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

碳交易机制下造林碳汇项目投资时机与投资期权价值分析

曹先磊   

  1. 山西财经大学国际贸易学院,太原 030006
  • 收稿日期:2019-08-10 修回日期:2019-10-13 出版日期:2020-05-25 发布日期:2020-07-25
  • 作者简介:曹先磊,男,河南台前人,讲师,博士,研究方向为森林资源与环境经济。E-mail: 872202969@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71873126);山西省哲学社会科学规划项目(2019B127);国家社会科学基金项目(17BGL127)

Investment timing and option value of afforestation carbon sequestration project under carbon trading mechanism

CAO Xianlei   

  1. Faculty of International Trade, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, China
  • Received:2019-08-10 Revised:2019-10-13 Online:2020-05-25 Published:2020-07-25

摘要:

碳交易试点机制可为造林碳汇项目投资提供额外资金支持。但是,在该机制下造林碳汇项目的顺利开展仍面临着较大的经济政策不确定性。充分考虑上述特征,从投资者视角揭示造林碳汇项目投资时机临界阈值和投资的期权价值,可为造林碳汇项目投资者的最优决策和政府推动造林碳汇项目投资的政策制定提供更全面的参考。为此,基于实物期权最优投资时机选择理论,利用Faustmann-Hartman模型测度造林碳汇项目价值,运用动态规划法求解造林碳汇项目在项目前期规划备案阶段和项目建设阶段最优投资时机临界阈值和投资期权价值的解析表达式,并以湿地松为例,对造林碳汇项目最优投资时机临界阈值及投资期权价值进行了实证与模拟分析。研究发现:①湿地松造林碳汇项目在项目前期规划备案阶段和项目建设阶段的投资期权价值分别为0.12万和0.59万元/hm2,最优投资时机临界阈值分别为79.23和57.33元/t,理性的投资者只有在大于临界阈值时,才会从事立即投资,否则选择延迟投资。②碳价格波动率、碳汇交易成本、劳动力价格变量对湿地松造林碳汇项目投资时机临界阈值和投资期权价值有显著的影响;上述因素提高增加了项目投资的期权价值和最优投资时机临界阈值,但最优投资时机临界阈值提高却延迟了最优投资的时机;③木材价格上涨、项目备案成功率提高将使最优投资时机临界阈值下降,即上述因素提高可缩短投资者延迟投资的时机。基于此,为促进造林碳汇项目投资、发挥林业在应对和适应气候变化中的作用,政府应进一步完善碳价格波动调控政策和项目备案管理政策,并采取综合措施降低碳汇交易成本。此外,考虑到林业投资所具有的长期性、公益性等典型特征及中国劳动力价格不断上涨的趋势,未来相关部门还需建立和实施林业碳汇补贴制度。

关键词: 碳交易, 造林碳汇项目, 投资时机, 实物期权, 动态规划法

Abstract:

The carbon trading pilot scheme will provide additional financial support for investment in afforestation carbon sequestration projects. However, the successful implementation of afforestation carbon sequestration projects under this mechanism still faces great uncertainty of economic policies. Considering these characteristics, revealing the critical threshold of investment timing and the option value from the perspective of investors can provide a more comprehensive reference for the optimal decision making of investors and policy making for the government to promote investment in afforestation carbon sequestration projects. Therefore, based on the theory of optimal investment timing of real options, the value of carbon sequestration afforestation project is measured by the Faustmann-Hartman model, and the analytical expression of optimal investment timing and option value of carbon sequestration projects in the early planning stage and project construction stage is solved by the dynamic programming method. Then, the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and the investment options value of Pinus elliottii afforestation project are empirically examined and simulated. The results show that: (1) The investment options value of Pinus elliottii afforestation carbon sequestration project is 0.12 yuan/hm2 in the project planning and filing stage and 0.59 yuan/hm2 in the project construction stage, respectively. The critical threshold of optimal investment timing is 79.23 yuan/t and 57.33 yuan/t, respectively. Rational investors will only invest immediately when the carbon price are above the critical threshold, otherwise they will choose to delay their investment. (2) Carbon price volatility, carbon sequestration transaction cost, and labor price variables have significant positive effects on the critical threshold of optimal investment timing and investment option value of Pinus elliottii afforestation project for carbon sequestration. With the increase of value of the above variables, the investment options value and the critical threshold of optimal investment timing will also increase, but it will delay the timing of investment. (3) The increase of timber price and the success rate of project filing will decrease the critical threshold of optimal investment timing. That is, the increase of value of the above variables can shorten the time for investors to delay investment. The study concludes that in order to promote investment of afforestation carbon sequestration project and for forestry to play the role in coping with and adapting to climate change, relevant government authorities need to establish and improve carbon price fluctuation control policies and project record management policies. At the same time, comprehensive measures should be taken to reduce carbon sequestration transaction costs. In addition, considering the long-term and public welfare characteristics of forestry investment and the rising trend of labor factor prices in China, it is necessary to establish and implement forestry carbon sequestration subsidy system in the future.

Key words: carbon trading, afforestation carbon sequestration project, investment timing, real options, dynamic programming method