人地关系视角下农村居民点转型的时空特征与形成机理

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.04.07

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地利用转型（LUT）对调节社会经济发展过程中出现的“人地关系”冲突提供了理论和实践指导。农村居民点作为农村土地利用的重要组成部分,其变化过程与农村人口迁移与流动密切关联,系统认识农村人地关系转型规律及其形成机理,可以为农村转型发展提供理论依据。本文从人地关系变化的视角刻画了农村居民点转型的理论过程,以人均农村居民点用地面积（PCRA）为表征指标,利用空间自相关、最小线性二乘回归（OLS）与地理加权回归（GWR）模型,揭示了农村居民点转型的时空特征及其影响因素和作用机理。通过山东省1996—2016年的实证分析发现：①PCRA整体转型趋势不显著,具有明显的区域不充分和不均衡性,仅在局部地区呈现出倒“U”型演变特征,原因在于被动性的农村居民点规模缩减滞后于主动性的农村人口流动。②PCRA空间分布存在明显的异质性,整体趋向高值簇或低值簇集聚,以青岛和济南为核心的两大经济区附近呈冷点先收缩后扩张之势,而广阔的一般地区呈热点先扩张后收缩之势。③农村居民点转型受地形、经济、城镇化和政策等因素综合影响,不同时段的主导因素作用力和不同区域的因素作用敏感性均有所差异,且作用过程带有一定的不稳定性。④不同地区农村居民点转型具有明显的时空异质性且驱动因素也有所不同,政府管理部门应因地施策促进“以人为本”的城镇化发展,并加快农村居民点用地规模缩减进程,助推农村转型发展。

关键词: 土地利用转型, 农村居民点, 时空格局, 机理, 山东

Abstract:

Land use transition (LUT) provides theoretical and practical guidance for the regulation of the conflicts in human-land relationship in the process of social and economic development. As an important part of rural land use, rural residential areas are closely related to the migration and movement of rural population. Systematically understanding the transition of rural human-land relationship and its formation mechanism can provide a theoretical basis for rural transition and development. In view of the reality of the loss of rural population and the hollowing of rural residential areas in the process of urbanization, this study depicted the theoretical process of rural residential area transition (RRAT) from the perspective of the changing human-land relationship. Then, per capita rural residential area (PCRA) was used as the characterization index of RRAT, and spatial autocorrelation least linear quadratic regression model (ordinary least squares) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were used to reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of RRAT and its influencing factors and mechanisms. The empirical analysis of Shandong Province from 1996 to 2016 shows that: (1) The PCRA transition trend was not significant, with obvious regional incompleteness and imbalance, but only in some areas it showed an inverted U-shaped transition process from rising to falling. The reason is that the passive reduction of rural residential land lagged behind the active rural population movement. (2) The spatial distribution of PCRA showed clear heterogeneity and tended to gather in high or low value clusters as a whole; the Jiaodong Peninsula and the vicinity of the provincial capital economic circle showed a tendency of contraction and expansion of cold spots, while the vast plain showed a tendency of contraction and expansion of hot spots. (3) The transition of rural residential areas is affected by factors such as topography, economy, urbanization, and policy, the main factors in different time periods and the sensitivity of factors in different regions are different, and the process of influence has some instability. (4) The linkage between rural population movement and rural residential land change determines the process of accelerating the coordinated development of rural human-land factors. There are differences in the RRAT in various areas as well as in the driving factors. Relevant government departments should promote the people-oriented urbanization and accelerate the process of scale reduction of rural residential land use to achieve rural transition and development.

Key words: land use transition, rural residential areas, spatiotemporal pattern, mechanism, Shandong

商冉, 曲衍波, 姜怀龙. 人地关系视角下农村居民点转型的时空特征与形成机理[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(4): 672-684.

SHANG Ran, QU Yanbo, JIANG Huailong. Spatiotemporal characteristics and formation mechanism of rural residential land transition from the perspective of human-land relationship[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(4): 672-684.

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解释变量	1996年	2000年	2006年	2010年	2016年
地形坡度（x₁）	-0.351***	-0.335 ***	-0.236***	-0.167***	-0.183***
农村居民人均收入（x₇）	-0.387***	-0.417***	-0.438***	-0.511***	-0.503***
城镇化率（x₈）	0.174***	0.203***	0.182***	0.143***	0.148***
城乡建设用地增减挂钩规模（x₁₂）	-0.087***	-0.126***	-0.141***	-0.137***	-0.159***
常数项	321.67	342.09	332.45	393.35	391.39
R²	0.6421	0.6495	0.5986	0.5399	0.5516
R_adj²	0.7006	0.7173	0.6763	0.6202	0.6490
AICc	1499.37	1455.63	1532.92	1584.23	1619.66