黄河中游窟野河流域水沙变化影响因素定量评估

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.03.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

窟野河流域位于黄河中游砒砂岩分布区,生态环境极其恶劣,是黄河中游粗泥沙的主要来源区之一,近几十年来该流域径流和输沙发生了显著变化,因此深入探究窟野河流域产流产沙变化的原因及其影响程度,对推进黄河中游水土保持综合治理具有重要借鉴意义。本文采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验、突变点检验等统计方法,分析了窟野河流域1955—2015年年径流量和输沙量变化。根据水量平衡原理,通过弹性系数法和双累积曲线法,定量估算了不同时期气候变化（降水量和潜在蒸散发）和人类活动对径流量和输沙量变化的贡献程度。结果表明：①61年间窟野河年径流量和输沙量均呈现显著减少趋势,并在1996年发生突变,且自2012年以来其水沙关系发生明显变化。②该流域气候变化和人类活动对年径流量减少的贡献率分别为18.53%和81.47%,对年输沙量减少的贡献率分别为3.59%和96.41%。以植被恢复和煤炭开采为主的人类活动是导致该流域年径流量和年输沙量减少的重要原因。③该流域多年的水土保持和其他人类活动已较大程度地减少了流域产沙,但同时也大幅度地降低了本已短缺的水资源量,未来在全球气候变化背景下,参考之前的治理成效规划未来的水土保持工程和调整流域产业结构,达到生态保护和高质量发展是一个需要认真思考的问题。

关键词: Budyko假设, 降水量, 潜在蒸散发, 人类影响, 水沙变化, 多沙粗沙区, 窟野河, 黄河中游

Abstract:

The Kuye River catchment is located in the soft sandstone area of the middle Yellow River where the ecological environment is extremely vulnerable. It is one of the principal sources of coarse sediment in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The runoff and sediment load of the river have been changing considerably in recent decades. Therefore, it is of great significance for improving the catchment management of the middle Yellow River to explore the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff and sediment discharge in the Kuye River catchment. In order to reveal the long-term variations of runoff and sediment discharge of the Kuye River, this study analyzed the runoff and sediment discharge series from 1955 to 2015 using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and three kinds of abrupt change test, and estimated the contribution rates of climate change and human activities, respectively, using elasticity method based on the water balance model and double mass curve method. The results show that annual runoff and sediment discharge had a significant decreasing trend and the jump points occurred in 1996. The relationship between runoff and sediment discharge has changed significantly since 2012. Compared with the reference period (T₁: 1955-1996), the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to annual runoff reduction are 18.53% and 81.47%, respectively. The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to annual sediment reduction are 3.59% and 96.41%, respectively. Human activities, mainly vegetation restoration and coal mining, are the most important reasons that caused the reduction of annual runoff and sediment load in the Kuye River. Considering that intended and unintended human interferences in the Kuye River catchment have greatly reduced not only the sediment yield but also the inadequate water resource, it is a question of how to achieve ecological protection and high quality development by planning future soil and water conservation projects and adjusting the industrial structure in the context of global climate change with reference to previous governance effects.

Key words: Budyko hypothesis, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, human interference, runoff and sediment discharge change, rich and coarse sediment area, Kuye River, middle reaches of the Yellow River

李慧娟, 师长兴, 马小晴, 刘慰. 黄河中游窟野河流域水沙变化影响因素定量评估[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(3): 499-507.

LI Huijuan, SHI Changxing, MA Xiaoqing, LIU Wei. Quantification of the influencing factors of runoff and sediment discharge changes of the Kuye River catchment in the middle reaches of the Yellow River[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(3): 499-507.

图/表 9

图1

图2

表1

图3

表2

气候变化和人类活动对窟野河流域径流变化影响"

	T₁	T₂
降水量/mm	396.47	364.11
潜在蒸散发量/mm	1037.42	1056.07
流域下垫面参数n	1.26	1.85
$Δ R P$ /mm		-10.48
$Δ R E 0$ /mm		-1.19
$Δ R H$ /mm		-51.30
$η C$ /%		18.53
$η H$ /%		81.47

表2

图4

表3

图5

表4

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水文要素	Z值	显著性水平	Sen’s β斜率
年径流量	-5.01	99%	-0.10
年输沙量	-4.55	99%	-0.02
年降水量	-0.85	不显著	—
年潜在蒸散发量	-0.22	不显著	—

	实测年输沙量/万t	年输沙量计算值/万t	气候变化减少输沙量/万t	人类活动减少输沙量/万t	气候变化贡献率/%	人类活动贡献率/%
T₁	10529.90
T₂	648.19	10175.626	354.289	9527.433	3.59	96.41

来源	研究时期	突变点	方法	措施期	径流变化贡献率/%
来源	研究时期	突变点	方法	措施期	气候变化	人类活动
Zhao等^[25]	1954—2010年	1996年	基于Budyko的水量平衡法	1997—2010年	10.3	89.7
Zhao等^[25]	1997—2010年	1999年	线性回归法	2000—2010年	15.3	84.7
郭巧玲等^[26]	1955—2012年	1996年	线性回归法	1997—2012年	10.4	89.6
本文	1955—2015年	1996年	弹性系数法	1997—2015年	18.5	81.5