资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 323-333.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.02.11

• 碳排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国高碳制造业碳排放时空演变及其驱动因素

王霞1,2, 张丽君1,2(), 秦耀辰1,2, 张晶飞1,2   

  1. 1. 河南大学环境与规划学院,开封 475004
    2. 河南大学黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室,开封 475004
  • 收稿日期:2019-05-23 修回日期:2019-09-30 出版日期:2020-02-25 发布日期:2020-04-25
  • 通讯作者: 张丽君
  • 作者简介:王霞,女,四川江油人,硕士生,研究方向为低碳经济与可持续发展。E-mail: wxia0709@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41501588);国家自然科学基金项目(41671536);中国博士后基金项目(2016M600575);河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2014CJJ065)

Spatiotemporal changes of carbon emissions in high-carbon manufacturing industry in China and driving factors

WANG Xia1,2, ZHANG Lijun1,2(), QIN Yaochen1,2, ZHANG Jingfei1,2   

  1. 1. College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
  • Received:2019-05-23 Revised:2019-09-30 Online:2020-02-25 Published:2020-04-25
  • Contact: ZHANG Lijun

摘要:

中国高碳制造业碳排放研究有助于推进中国工业绿色可持续发展。本文采用中国省域制造业能源消费数据,利用IPCC碳排放系数法、空间自相关分析法、动态空间面板模型,分析2006—2015年间中国30个省(市、区)(除港澳台、西藏外)高碳制造业碳排放时空演变及其驱动因素。研究发现:①除北京和上海外,其他省域高碳制造业碳排放均呈现不同程度的增长,碳排放“热点区”集聚在渤海湾、华北平原等区域;②高碳制造业碳排放存在显著的路径依赖以及空间溢出效应;③经济规模扩大是造成高碳制造业碳排放量增加的首要因素,而产业结构调整是造成其碳排放减少的重要因素;④资源禀赋水平提高、固定资产投资增强会促进高碳制造业碳排放的正向空间溢出,导致邻省碳排放增加,而技术水平提高、产业结构调整、对外开放度提高、外商投资增加,则有利于邻省高碳制造业碳排放减少。因而,在高碳制造业碳减排过程中,各省应突破省域界限,形成联动协调机制,通过优势互补、打破技术创新瓶颈,突破原有认知锁定,解锁不合理产业政策,在完成碳减排目标的同时实现整个工业绿色化转型升级。

关键词: 高碳制造业, 动态空间杜宾模型, 路径依赖, 空间溢出, 中国

Abstract:

Studying the carbon emissions of high-carbon manufacturing industry is helpful for promoting the sustainable development of China’s industries. Using the energy consumption data of China’s provincial manufacturing industry, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon emission coefficient method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and dynamic spatial panel model, the study examined the spatial and temporal changes of carbon emissions in high-carbon manufacturing industry of 30 provinces (except Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet) from 2006 to 2015. The results show that: Except Beijing and Shanghai Municipalities, carbon emissions in the rest of the provinces showed a growth trend. The “hot spots” of carbon emissions are concentrated in the Bohai Bay and Henan Province; Carbon emissions have clear path dependence and spillover effects in high-carbon manufacturing industry; The effect of economic growth is a main factor for the increase of provincial carbon emissions, and industrial structure change is an important factor for carbon emission reduction; The improvement of resource endowment level and the increase of fixed asset investment will lead to the increase of carbon emissions in neighboring provinces, but the improvement of technological level, industrial restructuring, greater openness to the outside world, and the increase of foreign investment are beneficial to reducing carbon emissions in neighboring provinces. In view of the above, the provinces should break provincial boundaries, form linkages and coordination mechanisms, break the bottleneck of technological innovation through complementary advantages, break the existing cognitive lock-in, and unlock unreasonable industrial policies. While achieving the goal of carbon emissions reduction, the green transformation and upgrading of the whole industry will be realized.

Key words: high-carbon manufacturing industry, Han-Phillips GMM, path dependence, spatial spillover, China