陕西省农业现代化水平时空特征及障碍因素

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.01.17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过构建县域层面农业现代化水平评价指标体系,基于Theil指数、Wolfson极化指数及障碍度模型等方法揭示陕西省农业现代化水平时空格局演变特征及障碍因素。结果表明：①2003—2017年陕西省农业现代化水平整体经历“上升（2003—2009年）—稳定（2010—2014年）—下降（2015—2017年）”演进过程;②Theil指数和Wolfson极化指数整体呈缓慢上升趋势,区域内部不均衡性是陕西省农业现代化水平区域差异不断扩大的主要原因,其平均贡献率达86.81%;③陕西省农业现代化水平呈现“中部高,南北低”的时空分布格局,关中渭北旱原、宝鸡市和榆林市北部区县是农业现代化水平高值区和热点地区,且高值区沿主要河流分布以及向三大地理区域过渡地带扩展的趋势明显;④质量效益是陕西省农业现代化水平的最大准则层障碍因素,年平均障碍度为41.58%,设施农业发展水平、劳均经济作物产出以及畜产品产出水平是主要障碍因子。最后,针对陕西省农业现代化发展突出问题,结合黄河流域农业高质量发展战略需求提出相关对策建议。

关键词: 农业现代化, 时空格局, 区域差异, 障碍度, 陕西省

Abstract:

This study constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system for county agricultural modernization level. Theil index and Wolfson polarization index, as well as an obstacle degree model were used to analyze the characteristics of the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural modernization level and obstacles in Shaanxi Province. We found that: (1) The agricultural modernization development pattern in Shaanxi Province can be divided into three stages, including the rising period (2003-2009), the stable period (2010-2014), and the declining period (2015-2017). (2) Theil index and Wolfson polarization index were slowly rising, and intraregional inequality was the main reason that regional differences of agricultural modernization level in Shaanxi Province expanded, which contributed 86.81% of the overall Theil index. (3) Agricultural modernization level in the Guanzhong Plain Region was higher than that of the Loess Plateau Region and the Qinling-Daba Mountains Region, and the arid area of northern Weihe River and Baoji City, as well as northern Yulin City were the high-level regions and hot spots in Shaanxi Province. Counties with high level of agricultural modernization are distributed along some main rivers and expanded from the Guanzhong Plain Region to the geomorphic transition zone. (4) Agriculture development quality was the biggest sub-index level obstacle factor, with an annual average obstacle degree of 41.58%. The key obstacles that affected agricultural modernization level were facility agriculture development, output efficiency of economic crops, as well as the production of animal products. Finally, this article put forward some suggestions for agricultural modernization development in Shaanxi Province and high-quality development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: agricultural modernization, spatiotemporal pattern, regional differences, obstacle degree, Shaanxi Province

杨华, 芮旸, 李炬霖, 李同昇. 陕西省农业现代化水平时空特征及障碍因素[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(1): 172-183.

YANG Hua, RUI Yang, LI Julin, LI Tongsheng. Spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural modernization level and obstacles in Shaanxi Province[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(1): 172-183.

图/表 9

图1

表1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表2

图6

表3

参考文献 25

[1]	何传启 . 中国现代化报告: 2012农业现代化研究[M]. 北京: 北京大学出版社, 2012.
	[ He C Q. China Modernization Report in 2012: Research of Agricultural Modernization[M]. Beijing: Peking University Press, 2012.]
[2]	王维, 张涛, 陈云 . 长江经济带地级及以上城市“五化”协调发展格局研究[J]. 地理科学, 2018,38(3):385-393.
	[ Wang W, Zhang T, Chen Y . Coordinated development pattern of “Five Modernizations” of prefecture level cities or above in the Yangtze River Economic Zone[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018,38(3):385-393.]
[3]	西奥多·W·舒尔茨 , 著. 改造传统农业[M]. 梁小民 , 译. 北京: 商务印书馆, 1987.
	[ Theodore W S. Transforming Traditional Agriculture[M]. Liang X M. , Trans. Beijing: The Commercial Press, 1987.]
[4]	高芸, 蒋和平 . 我国农业现代化发展水平评价研究综述[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2016,37(3):409-415.
	[ Gao Y, Jiang H P . Review on the evaluation of the development of China’s agricultural modernization[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2016,37(3):409-415.]
[5]	刘世薇, 张平宇, 宋凤斌 , 等. 黑龙江垦区农业现代化水平评价[J]. 地理科学, 2018,38(7):1051-1060.
	[ Liu S W, Zhang P Y, Song F B , et al. Measuring the agricultural modernization level of Heilongjiang reclamation areas in China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018,38(7):1051-1060.]
[6]	龙冬平, 李同昇, 苗园园 , 等. 中国农业现代化发展水平空间分异及类型[J]. 地理学报, 2014,69(2):213-226.
	[ Long D P, Li T S, Miao Y Y , et al. The spatial distribution and types of the development level of Chinese agricultural modernization[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014,69(2):213-226.]
[7]	陈强强, 孙小花, 吕剑平 , 等. 甘肃省农业现代化水平测度及制约因子研究[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2018,39(3):369-377.
	[ Chen Q Q, Sun X H, Lv J P , et al. Measurement of agricultural modernization level and diagnosis of restrictive factors in Gansu Province[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2018,39(3):369-377.]
[8]	钟丽娜, 李松柏 . 陕西省农业现代化发展水平综合评价[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2018,39(1):57-64.
	[ Zhong L N, Li S B . Comprehensive evaluation on the level of agricultural modernization in Shaanxi Province[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2018,39(1):57-64.]
[9]	曾梦玲, 周芳 . 湖北农垦农业现代化水平及其制约因素研究[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2019,40(1):72-80.
	[ Zeng M L, Zhou F . The development level and restrictive factors of agricultural modernization of state farms in Hubei Province[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2019,40(1):72-80.]
[10]	李满, 李世峰, 欧阳映鸿 . 基于熵权法的涿鹿县现代农业发展水平评价分析[J]. 中国农业大学学报, 2014,19(5):236-243.
	[ Li M, Li S F, Ouyang Y H . Evaluation on the development level of modern agriculture of Zhuolu County based on entropy weight[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University, 2014,19(5):236-243.]
[11]	王录仓, 武荣伟, 梁炳伟 , 等. 中国农业现代化水平时空格局[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2016,30(12):1-7.
	[ Wang L C, Wu R W, Liang B W , et al. Spatial-temporal characteristics of the development level of Chinese agricultural modernization[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2016,30(12):1-7.]
[12]	于正松, 李同昇, 龙冬平 , 等. 陕、甘、宁三省(区)农业现代化水平格局演变及其动因分析[J]. 地理科学, 2014,34(4):411-419.
	[ Yu Z S, Li T S, Long D P , et al. The pattern evolution and it’s reasons about the agricultural modernization in Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014,34(4):411-419.]
[13]	林正雨, 李晓, 何鹏 . 四川省农业现代化发展水平综合评价[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2014,35(1):15-19.
	[ Lin Z Y, Li X, He P . Comprehensive evaluation on level of agricultural modernization in Sichuan Province[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2014,35(1):15-19.]
[14]	辛岭, 王济民 . 我国县域农业现代化发展水平评价: 基于全国1980个县的实证分析[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2014,35(6):673-678.
	[ Xin L, Wang J M . Evaluation on agricultural modernization level of China’s counties: Based on empirical analysis of nationwide 1980 counties[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2014,35(6):673-678.]
[15]	江孝君, 杨青山, 刘鉴 . 中国地级以上城市“五化”协调发展时空格局及影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017,36(7):806-819.
	[ Jiang X J, Yang Q S, Liu J . Spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of the “Five Modernizations” coordinated development of prefecture level and above cities in China[J]. Progress in Geography, 2017,36(7):806-819.]
[16]	陈明星, 陆大道, 张华 . 中国城市化水平的综合测度及其动力因子分析[J]. 地理学报, 2009,64(4):387-398.
	[ Chen M X, Lu D D, Zhang H . Comprehensive evaluation and the driving factors of China’s urbanization[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009,64(4):387-398.]
[17]	Liao T F . Evaluating distributional differences in income inequality[J]. Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World, 2016,2:1-4.
[18]	孙才志, 郭可蒙 . 基于DER-Wolfson指数的中国海洋经济极化研究[J]. 地理科学, 2019,39(6):920-928.
	[ Sun Z C, Guo K M . Chinese marine economic polarization based on DER-Wolfson index[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2019,39(6):920-928.]
[19]	Foster J E, Wolfson M C . Polarization and the decline of the middle class: Canada and the U.S[J]. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 2010,8(2):247-273.
[20]	陈曼, 甘臣林, 梅昀 , 等. 农户生计视角下农地流转绩效评价及障碍因子诊断: 基于武汉城市圈典型农户调查[J]. 资源科学, 2019,41(8):1551-1562.
	[ Chen M, Gan C L, Mei Y , et al. Farmland transfer performance and obstacles from the perspective of farmers’ livelihood: Based on rural household survey of greater Wuhan Metropolitan Area[J]. Resources Science, 2019,41(8):1551-1562.]
[21]	王泽宇, 卢函, 孙才志 , 等. 中国海洋经济系统稳定性评价与空间分异[J]. 资源科学, 2017,39(3):566-576.
	[ Wang Z Y, Lu H, Sun Z C , et al. Assessment and spatial differentiation of China’s marine economic system stability[J]. Resources Science, 2017,39(3):566-576.]
[22]	毛汉英 . 县域经济和社会同人口、资源、环境协调发展研究[J]. 地理学报, 1991,46(4):385-395.
	[ Mao H Y . Study on coordinating development of economic, social growth with population, resources and environment at county level[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009,46(4):385-395.]
[23]	张荣天 . 长江三角洲农业现代化评价及空间分异[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2015,36(2):111-117.
	[ Zhan R T . Evaluation and spatial differentiation of agricultural modernization in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2015,36(2):111-117.]
[24]	吉林省新农村建设工作办公室. 《吉林省率先实现农业现代化总体规划(2016-2025年)》实施情况中期评估报告[EB/OL]. ( 2019- 10- 10) [2019-12-06]. .
	[ New Village Construction Office of Jilin Province. Mid-term Evaluation Report of “Master Planning of Jilin Province Achieving Agricultural Modernization (2016-2025)” [EB/OL]. ( 2019- 10- 10) [2019-12-06]. .]
[25]	王思梦, 黄昌 . 基于遥感和GIS的流域自然生态环境质量监测与评价: 以无定河流域为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018,41(1):134-141.
	[ Wang S M, Huang C . Ecological environment quality monitoring and evaluation based on remote sensing and GIS techniques: A case of Wuding River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2018,41(1):134-141.]

准则层	指标层		指标解释	权重	属性
产业结构	农林牧渔业增加值	X₁	农林牧渔业增加值（万元）	0.09	+
	粮食生产能力	X₂	粮食总产量（t）	0.02	+
	经济作物产出比重	X₃	主要经济作物产量（油料、棉花、蔬菜、水果）/农产品总产量（%）	0.09	+
	畜产品产出比重	X₄	主要畜产品产量（肉类、禽蛋、奶类）/农产品总产量（%）	0.02	+
要素投入	农林牧渔业中间投入	X₅	农林牧渔业总产值-农林牧渔业增加值（万元）	0.09	-
	农业机械化水平	X₆	农业机械总动力（kW）	0.10	+
	设施农业发展水平	X₇	农用塑料薄膜使用量/耕地总面积（t/hm²）	0.02	+
	耕地复种率	X₈	粮食播种面积/耕地总面积（hm²/hm²）	0.07	+
质量效益	农业劳动生产率	X₉	农林牧渔总产值/农业人口（万元/每人）	0.04	+
	农业土地产出率	X₁₀	农林牧渔总产值/耕地总面积（万元/ hm²）	0.05	+
	地均粮食产出	X₁₁	粮食总产量/粮食播种面积（t/ hm²）	0.02	+
	劳均经济作物产出	X₁₂	主要经济作物产量（油料、棉花、蔬菜、水果）/农业人口（t/每人）	0.13	+
	劳均畜产品产出	X₁₃	主要畜产品产量（肉类、禽蛋、奶类）/农业人口（t/每人）	0.11	+
	农村居民收入水平	X₁₄	农村居民人均纯收入（元）	0.02	+
可持续发展	耕地保有量	X₁₅	常用耕地面积（hm²）	0.08	+
	化肥施用量	X₁₆	化肥施用量/耕地总面积（t/hm²）	0.01	-
	植被覆盖率	X₁₇	归一化植被指数	0.02	+

年份	障碍度/%
年份	产业结构	要素投入	质量效益	可持续发展
2003	19.53	19.99	54.22	6.27
2004	23.39	24.57	43.66	8.38
2005	22.31	20.05	49.80	7.84
2006	28.88	23.30	37.36	10.46
2007	29.94	21.54	38.19	10.33
2008	29.37	21.74	39.23	9.65
2009	29.32	21.36	39.08	10.24
2010	26.32	23.97	40.46	9.24
2011	26.22	24.83	39.30	9.65
2012	25.51	24.05	41.09	9.35
2013	24.93	24.04	41.83	9.20
2014	24.88	24.40	41.51	9.21
2015	24.63	24.96	39.78	10.64
2016	22.73	28.55	38.98	9.73
2017	20.48	30.29	39.19	10.03

年份	类别	排序
年份	类别	1	2	3	4	5
2003	障碍因子	X₁₁	X₁₂	X₁₀	X₇	X₆
2003	障碍度/%	15.14	11.13	10.36	9.50	9.11
2010	障碍因子	X₁₂	X₁₃	X₇	X₄	X₆
2010	障碍度/%	16.82	14.01	13.55	10.44	8.41
2017	障碍因子	X₇	X₁₂	X₁₃	X₁₅	X₁₀
2017	障碍度/%	19.73	11.55	10.82	9.28	9.12