黄河流域新型城镇化与生态环境耦合的时空格局及影响因素

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.01.16

资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 159-171.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.01.16

黄河流域新型城镇化与生态环境耦合的时空格局及影响因素

赵建吉^1,², 刘岩¹, 朱亚坤¹, 秦胜利¹, 王艳华^1,^2,^*(), 苗长虹^1,²

^1. 河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明协同创新中心,开封 475001
^2. 河南大学环境与规划学院,开封 475000

收稿日期:2019-12-11 修回日期:2019-12-26 出版日期:2020-01-25 发布日期:2020-01-25
通讯作者: 王艳华
作者简介:赵建吉,男,山东临沂人,博士,副教授,博士生导师,主要从事经济地理与区域发展研究。E-mail: <email>zhaojianji@126.com</email>
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41601119);教育部人文社科基金项目(15YJC790111);教育部人文社科基金项目(19YJA790123)

Spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing factors of the coupling and coordinated development of new urbanization and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin

ZHAO Jianji^1,², LIU Yan¹, ZHU Yakun¹, QIN Shengli¹, WANG Yanhua^1,^2,^*(), MIAO Changhong^1,²

^1. Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development & Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization of Henan Province, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China;
^2. College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475000, China

Received:2019-12-11 Revised:2019-12-26 Online:2020-01-25 Published:2020-01-25
Contact: WANG Yanhua

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以黄河流域作为研究对象,通过构建新型城镇化与生态环境的耦合协调模型,定量测度了2005—2016年黄河流域新型城镇化与生态环境耦合协调的时空格局,以及二者同步发展的状态;通过构建随机效应面板Tobit模型,对黄河流域新型城镇化与生态环境耦合的影响因素进行研究。结果表明：①黄河流域新型城镇化及生态环境子系统,以及耦合协调度均呈现先上升后下降的趋势;②黄河流域新型城镇化与生态环境的耦合度均值在0.34~0.70之间,整体上处于拮抗阶段和磨合阶段。黄河流域新型城镇化与生态环境的协调度均值处于0.20~0.60之间,整体处于低度协调和中度协调阶段;③黄河流域超过78％的地级市为生态滞后型城市,在新型城镇化快速推进背景下,生态环境的压力凸显;④经济发展水平、政府能力、科技投入等对于耦合协调度产生积极影响,对外开放程度、工业化水平对于黄河流域上游和中下游地区的耦合协调度产生不同的作用。在加快推进黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展重大国家战略背景下,摆脱区域发展的路径依赖对于推动新型城镇化与生态环境的耦合具有重要意义,黄河流域要针对上游和中下游地区采取差异化的策略来推动新型城镇化与生态环境耦合发展。

关键词: 新型城镇化, 生态环境, 耦合协调, Tobit模型, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Taking the Yellow River Basin as an example, in this study the coupling and coordinated development of new urbanization and ecological environment was examined, and the spatiotemporal differentiation and synchronous development state of the coupling and coordination from 2005 to 2016 were measured. Based on the Tobit model of random effect, the influencing factors of the coupling of new urbanization and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin were explained. The findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Index values of the new urbanization and ecological environment subsystems and the coupling and coordination degree of the Yellow River Basin were rising first and then declining. (2) The average coupling degree of new urbanization and ecological environment was between 0.34~0.70, which was in the stage of moderate development. The average coordination degree of new urbanization and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin was between 0.20~0.60, which was in the stage of low coordination and moderate coordination; (3) More than 78% of the cities in the Yellow River Basin lagged behin in ecological environment protection and the pressure of ecological environment are prominent under the background of rapid urbanization. (4) The level of economic development, capacity of the governments, and investment in science and technology have a positive impact on the degree of coupling and coordination; the degree of opening and the level of industrialization have different effects on the coupling and coordination of the upper and middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin. Additional, reducing path dependency has great significance for promoting the coupling of new urbanization and ecological environment. Differentiated strategies should be adopted to promote the coupling development of new urbanization and ecological environment across the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: new urbanization, ecological environment, coupling and coordination, Tobit model, Yellow River Basin

赵建吉, 刘岩, 朱亚坤, 秦胜利, 王艳华, 苗长虹. 黄河流域新型城镇化与生态环境耦合的时空格局及影响因素[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(1): 159-171.

ZHAO Jianji, LIU Yan, ZHU Yakun, QIN Shengli, WANG Yanhua, MIAO Changhong. Spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing factors of the coupling and coordinated development of new urbanization and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(1): 159-171.

图/表 10

表1

表2

表3

研究方法及指标"

地理模型	计算公式	模型释义	意义
最小-最大标准化	$y ij = X ij - X ij min X ij max - X ij min 正指标 y ij = X ij max - X ij X ij max - X ij min 逆指标$	y_ij为标准值;X_ij_max、X_ij_min为系统i指标j的最大和最小值; X_ij为系统i指标j的值	消除数据间屏蔽效应和量纲差异
熵权法求权重	$p ij = y ij ∑ i = 1 n y ij$ $E j = - ln n - 1 ∑ i = 1 n p ij ln p ij$ $w i = 1 - E i n - ∑ E i$	w_i为各指标权重; $p ij$ 为第i个城市j指标的比重; $E j$ 为j指标的信息熵	客观确定指标权重
综合发展指数	$U 1 = ∑ i = 1 m w i y ij$ $U 2 = ∑ i = 1 n w i y ij$	U₁、U₂分别代表各子系统的综合功效;n和m均为地级市的个数	获得子系统的综合效益
耦合度	$C = n u 1 u 2 … u n ∏ (u i + u j) 1 n$	C为耦合度; $u i$ 、 $u j$ 、 $u n$ 分别表示第i、j、n个子系统的综合发展指数	0≤ C ≤1。C≤ 0.3,低水平耦合;0.3<C ≤ 0.5,拮抗状态;0.5<C ≤0.8,磨合状态;0.8<C ≤1,高水平耦合
耦合协调度	$T = a U 1 + b U 2$ $D = C × T$	D为协调度;T为耦合协调发展水平指数;a=b=0.5	0≤ D ≤1。D ≤0.3,低度协调;0.3<D ≤ 0.5中度协调;0.5<D ≤0.8,高度协调;0.8<D ≤1,高度协调
相对发展模型	$β = U 2 / U 1$	β为相对发展度,U₁、U₂为城镇化和生态环境综合发展指数	0<β≤ 0.9,生态环境滞后于城镇化,0.9<β ≤1.1,二者同步发展,β>1.1,城镇化滞后于生态环境

表3

图1

表4

图2

图3

图4

表5

表6

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地区	面积（万km²）	人口（亿人）	GDP （亿元）	人均GDP （万元）	三次产业比重	城镇化率（%）	全社会固定资产投资（亿元）	地方财政公共预算收入（亿元）
黄河流域	262.0	3.2	180182.4	5.6	7.8:45.4:46.8	55.7	152749.5	16266.0
全国	960.0	13.9	827121.7	6.0	7.9:40.5:51.6	58.5	641238.4	91469.4
黄河流域/全国（%）	27.3	23.3	21.8	93.3	—	95.2	23.8	17.8

目标层（一级指标）	系统层（二级指标）	准则层（三级指标）	单位	指标功效
新型城镇化	城镇化水平	常住人口城镇化率	%	+
		城市建成区占比	%	+
		二三产业就业人员占总就业人数的比重	%	+
		人均社会消费品零售额	元/人	+
		城镇登记失业率	%	-
	公共服务水平	每千人口医疗卫生机构床位数	张/千人	+
		每百人公共图书馆藏书	册/百人	+
		城市用水普及率	%	+
		社会保障支出占财政支出比重	%	+
		教育支出占财政支出比重	%	+
	基础设施水平	每万人拥有公共汽车	辆/万人	+
		人均城市道路面积	m²	+
		人均公园绿地面积	m²	+
		人均城市建成区面积	m²	+
		互联网宽带接入用户数	户	+
生态环境	生态环境水平	建成区绿化覆盖率	%	+
	生态环境水平	人均耕地面积	hm²/人	+
	资源环境利用	单位土地生产总值	元/km²	+
		单位GDP能耗	tce/万元	-
		人均污水排放量	t/人	-
		人均废气排放量	t/人	-
		人均能源消费	tce/人	-
		清洁能源（天然气）普及率	%	+
		人均日生活用水量	升/日	-
	资源环境保护	生活垃圾无害化处理率	%	+
		污水处理厂日处理能力	万m³/日	+
		污水处理厂集中处理率	%	+
		固体废物综合利用率	%	+

年份	新型城镇化指数（U₁）	生态环境评价指数（U₂）	系统综合发展指数（T）	耦合度（C）	耦合协调度（D）	耦合协调等级	耦合阶段
2005	0.1437	0.1134	0.2571	0.4879	0.3526	拮抗中度	拮抗
2006	0.1395	0.1226	0.2621	0.4930	0.3578	磨合中度	磨合
2007	0.1451	0.1149	0.2600	0.4937	0.3569	磨合中度	磨合
2008	0.1223	0.0924	0.2147	0.4464	0.3083	拮抗中度	拮抗
2009	0.1604	0.1057	0.2660	0.4918	0.3602	拮抗中度	拮抗
2010	0.1574	0.1155	0.2729	0.5032	0.3693	拮抗中度	拮抗
2011	0.1670	0.1161	0.2831	0.5117	0.3793	拮抗中度	拮抗
2012	0.1593	0.1042	0.2635	0.4895	0.3577	拮抗中度	拮抗
2013	0.1536	0.1025	0.2562	0.4832	0.3504	拮抗中度	拮抗
2014	0.1456	0.0987	0.2443	0.4722	0.3382	拮抗中度	拮抗
2015	0.1484	0.0894	0.2379	0.4605	0.3295	拮抗中度	拮抗
2016	0.1331	0.0714	0.2044	0.4192	0.2908	拮抗中度	拮抗

	变量名称	变量符号	变量说明	单位
被解释变量	耦合协调度	D	耦合协调度模型计算结果
解释变量	对外开放程度	open	人均实际利用外资	美元/人
	经济发展水平	pgdp	人均GDP	元/人
	工业化水平	indu	第二产业增加值占GDP的比重	%
	科技投入	tech	科学技术支出占财政支出的比重	%
	政府能力	gov	地区财政支出占GDP的比重	%
	城市建设资金投入	bui	城市建设维护资金支出	万元

	全样本		黄河上游省份		黄河中下游省份
变量	系数	P值	系数	P值	系数	P值
open	-0.0443	0.006***	0.0591	0.051*	-0.0333	0.094*
pgdp	0.3210	0.000***	0.0594	0.121	0.4591	0.000***
indu	-0.0650	0.000***	0.0082	0.635	-0.1333	0.000***
tech	0.0424	0.000***	-0.0259	0.051**	0.0583	0.000***
gov	0.0820	0.000***	0.0562	0.017**	0.0980	0.036*
bui	0.1029	0.000***	0.1052	0.000***	0.0858	0.000***
cons	0.2870	0.000***	0.3125	0.000***	0.2904	0.000***

黄河流域新型城镇化与生态环境耦合的时空格局及影响因素

Spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing factors of the coupling and coordinated development of new urbanization and ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin

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