资源科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 57-68.doi: 10.18402/resci.2020.01.06

• 水资源与水安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

黄河流域用水效率的空间格局及动态演进

刘华军, 乔列成, 孙淑惠   

  1. 山东财经大学 经济学院,济南 250014
  • 收稿日期:2019-11-13 修回日期:2019-12-22 出版日期:2020-01-25 发布日期:2020-01-25
  • 作者简介:刘华军,男,山东广饶人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事资源环境经济研究。E-mail: huajun99382@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(18BJY140);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2019MG029);山东省泰山学者青年专家计划项目

Spatial distribution and dynamic change of water use efficiency in the Yellow River Basin

LIU Huajun, QIAO Liecheng, SUN Shuhui   

  1. School of Economics, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, China
  • Received:2019-11-13 Revised:2019-12-22 Online:2020-01-25 Published:2020-01-25

摘要:

提高用水效率是实现水资源可持续发展的关键举措,深入探究黄河流域用水效率的空间格局及动态演进趋势,对推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展具有重要意义。本文通过构建基于非期望产出的全局至强有效前沿最近距离模型(MinDS模型),对2000—2017年黄河流域用水效率进行科学测度,从全国视角、区域比较视角及流域内部视角全面刻画黄河流域用水效率的空间格局,并借助扩展的分布动态学模型探究黄河流域用水效率的动态演进趋势。研究结果表明:黄河流域用水效率高于全国平均水平,中下游地区用水效率始终高于中上游地区,呈现出“东高西低”的空间分布特征;黄河流域用水效率在部分年份存在极化现象,空间因素能够明显影响黄河流域用水效率未来的空间分布,相邻地区用水效率的相互作用导致长期内黄河流域用水效率差距逐渐缩小,存在着收敛于中间水平的趋势。

关键词: 黄河流域, 用水效率, 空间格局, 核密度估计, 马尔科夫链

Abstract:

Improving water use efficiency is the key measure to realize the sustainable development of water resources. It is of great significance to explore the spatial pattern and dynamic change of water use efficiency in order to promote the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. In this study, we built a global Minimum Distance to Strong Efficient Frontier (MinDS model) based on unexpected output to accurately measure the water use efficiency of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2017. The spatial pattern of water use efficiency of the Yellow River Basin was comprehensively depicted from the perspective of national, regional, and intraregional comparisons. The change of distribution dynamics of water use efficiency was investigated by an extended distribution dynamic model. The results show that the water use efficiency of the Yellow River Basin is higher than the average level in China. The water use efficiency of the lower reaches is higher than that of the upper reaches. A spatial pattern of “high in the east and low in the west” is very clear. The polarization of water use efficiency in the Yellow River Basin is obvious in some years. Spatial factors can significantly affect the regional distribution of water use efficiency. The interaction of water use efficiency in adjacent areas leads to the gradual narrowing of water use efficiency gap in the Yellow River Basin in the long term. And water use efficiency converges to the middle level.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, water use efficiency, spatial pattern, kernel density, Markov chains