新形势下黄河流域水资源配置战略调整研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2020.01.03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

黄河流域在中国经济社会发展和生态安全方面具有十分重要的地位。黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展上升为重大国家战略,对流域水资源配置提出了更高要求,既要为保护生态系统提供助力,也要保障社会经济高质量发展。随着气候变化和人类活动的影响,黄河水沙形势发生剧烈变化,径流量显著减少,但近期有所回升,来沙量急剧减少。为保障黄河流域高质量发展对水资源的需求,面对黄河水沙变化、区域水资源供需变化等新形势,本文估算预留生态（含输沙）水量（80亿~120亿m ³）、下游南水北调及海水利用可替代黄河供水量（25亿~45亿m ³）及上中游部分产业发展需水,研究向黄河上中游分配更多水量指标的水资源战略配置方案,并提出完善水权转让与补偿制度、探索用水指标与土地指标调控的联动机制,以推动新的水资源配置方案的实施。

关键词: 水资源, 战略配置, 新形势, 水资源保障, 黄河流域

Abstract:

The Yellow River Basin plays an important role in China’s social development and ecological security. Ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin have become a significant national strategy, which makes higher requirements on water resources allocation of the basin. The water allocation should not only help ecological system protection but also ensure high-quality development. With the impact of climate change and human activities, the overall runoff of the Yellow River has decreased in recent decades, but it has recovered slightly in the past several years, and the sediment inflow has decreased significantly compared with the historical situation. To meet the water demand of high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin, based on the new situation of runoff and sedimentation and regional water supply and demand, this article estimated the reserved ecological and sediment transport water on the lower reaches (8~12 billion m3), alternative water supply of the Yellow River by the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and seawater utilization (2.5~4.5 billion m3), and water demand for the development of some of the industries on the upper and middle reaches. Then scenarios of the Yellow River water resources allocation scheme were designed. To strengthen water resource security for the strategic development in the Yellow River Basin, it is necessary to improve the institutional arrangements and regulations of water right transfer and compensation, and explore the coupling mechanism of water and land spatial adjustments.

Key words: water resources, strategic allocation, new situation, water resource security, Yellow River Basin

贾绍凤, 梁媛. 新形势下黄河流域水资源配置战略调整研究[J]. 资源科学, 2020, 42(1): 29-36.

JIA Shaofeng, LIANG Yuan. Suggestions for strategic allocation of the Yellow River water resources under the new situation[J]. Resources Science, 2020, 42(1): 29-36.

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方案	适用年限	消耗量分配
方案	适用年限	青海	四川	甘肃	宁夏	内蒙古	陕西	山西	河南	山东	河北天津	河南以上	河南及以下	合计
87分水方案	南水北调东中线工程生效前	14.10	0.40	30.40	40.00	58.60	38.00	43.10	55.40	70.00	20.00	224.60	145.40	370.00
黄河流域综合规划	南水北调东中线工程生效前	13.00	0.37	28.03	36.88	54.03	35.04	39.74	51.08	64.55	18.44	207.09	134.07	341.16
黄河流域综合规划	南水北调东中线生效至西线一期工程生效前（2020水平年）	13.16	0.37	28.37	37.32	54.68	35.46	40.22	51.69	65.32	6.20	209.58	123.21	332.79

	河南省	山东省	河北省	天津市	北京市	江苏省	安徽省	合计
东线	—	37.2	10.0	10.0	—	28.2	5.3	90.7
中线	37.7	—	34.7	10.2	12.4	—	—	95.0

方案		河川径流量	生态水量	可分配水量 =-	下游置换水量	分水指标（耗水量）
方案		河川径流量	生态水量	可分配水量 =-	下游置换水量	下游	上中游
“87”分水方案		580.0	210.0	370.0	—	145.4	224.6
《黄河流域综合规划》南水北调东中线生效至西线一期工程生效前（2020水平年）		519.8	187.0	332.8	—	123.2	209.6
调整方案	低调整情景	取低值	取高值		取低值	“87分水”-置换水量	=-
	低调整情景	482.0	120.0	362.0	25.0	120.4	241.6
	高调整情景	取高值	取低值		取高值
	高调整情景	534.8	80.0	454.8	45.0	100.4	354.4