资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (12): 2248-2261.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.12.09
收稿日期:
2019-03-25
修回日期:
2019-09-21
出版日期:
2019-12-25
发布日期:
2019-12-25
通讯作者:
席建超
作者简介:
马慧强,男,山西大同人,博士,副教授,研究方向为经济地理,旅游开发与规划。E-mail: Mahuiqiang001@126.com
基金资助:
MA Huiqiang1,2, LIAN Qianwen1, LUN Yuchao3, XI Jianchao2()
Received:
2019-03-25
Revised:
2019-09-21
Online:
2019-12-25
Published:
2019-12-25
Contact:
XI Jianchao
摘要:
开展旅游经济系统脆弱性评价与影响因素研究,是制定旅游经济科学发展策略,提高区域旅游发展质量的客观要求。本文在探讨旅游经济系统脆弱性内涵的基础上,从旅游经济系统敏感性和应对能力两个方面来构建旅游经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系,并运用BP人工神经网络模型、脆弱性评价指数模型、地理探测器等研究方法,对中国30个省级行政单元(不包括西藏和港澳台地区)的旅游经济系统脆弱性空间分异特征及影响因素进行分析。结果表明:①中国旅游经济系统整体处于较高脆弱、中等敏感、较高应对能力状态,且旅游经济系统脆弱性、敏感性和应对能力省际空间分异明显;②中国旅游经济系统脆弱性、敏感性和应对能力均呈现“集群化”和“极差化”分布特征,东部地区旅游经济系统脆弱性较高,且内部差异显著,中部和西部地区脆弱性较低,内部差异较不明显;③中国旅游经济系统脆弱性空间分异是不同影响因素共同作用的结果,其中产业结构多样化指数对脆弱性空间分异的影响最大,旅游外汇收入占旅游总收入比重对脆弱性空间分异的影响最小。研究结果可丰富旅游可持续发展理论,并为解决旅游经济质量提升问题等提供科学依据。
马慧强, 廉倩文, 论宇超, 席建超. 基于BP神经网络的旅游经济系统脆弱性省际空间分异[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(12): 2248-2261.
MA Huiqiang, LIAN Qianwen, LUN Yuchao, XI Jianchao. Spatial differentiation of tourism economic system vulnerability based on BP neural network in different provinces of China[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(12): 2248-2261.
表1
旅游经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系"
目标层 | 准则层 | 代码 | 指标层 | 指标解释及性质 | 主观权重 | 客观权重 | 组合权重 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
旅游经济系统脆弱性指数 | 敏感性指数 | S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 | 旅游收入占GDP比重/% 旅游外汇收入占外贸出口总值比重/% 旅游业增长弹性系数 旅游外汇收入占旅游总收入比重/% 产业结构多样化指数 入境旅游人数占游客总人数比重/% 外贸依存度/% | 经济对旅游产业的依赖性(+) 外汇收入对旅游业的依赖性(+) 旅游增长对经济增长的弹性(+) 旅游业对入境旅游的依赖程度(+) 产业结构多样化程度(-) 旅游业对入境游客的吸引力(+) 旅游经济内外需求的平衡性(+) | 0.0204 0.0473 0.0050 0.0079 0.0078 0.0766 0.0784 | 0.0196 0.0309 0.0038 0.0337 0.0064 0.0902 0.0698 | 0.0200 0.0391 0.0044 0.0208 0.0071 0.0834 0.0741 |
S8 S9 S10 S11 S12 S13 S14 | 旅游业从业人数占总从业人员比重/% 城镇登记失业率/% 交通事故发生数/起 交通事故伤亡人数/人 交通事故财产损失/万元 文盲率/% 犯罪率/% | 地区就业对旅游业的依赖度(+) 城镇失业状况(+) 内部灾害事故发生情况(+) 游客交通安全性(+) 交通事故对经济发展的影响(+) 地区文化教育普及和发达程度(+) 社会环境安全性(+) | 0.0112 0.0043 0.0522 0.0496 0.0303 0.0313 0.0623 | 0.0226 0.0119 0.0492 0.0438 0.0293 0.0307 0.0591 | 0.0169 0.0081 0.0507 0.0467 0.0298 0.0310 0.0607 | ||
S15 S16 S17 | 自然灾害经济损失占比/% 自然灾害受灾人口比重/% 森林覆盖率/% | 自然灾害对经济发展的影响(+) 自然灾害对游客安全的影响(+) 地区自然生态状况(-) | 0.1079 0.0259 0.0754 | 0.0369 0.0367 0.0764 | 0.0724 0.0313 0.0759 | ||
应对能 力指数 | R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 | 人均旅游GDP/万元 旅游收入增长率/% 旅游劳动生产率/% 旅游资源丰富度/分 食宿企业收入比重/% 社会消费品零售总额/亿元 | 旅游经济实力(-) 旅游经济增长能力(-) 旅游产品生产效率(-) 旅游资源禀赋(-) 地区食宿接待能力(-) 地区消费接待能力(-) | 0.0036 0.0129 0.0323 0.0093 0.0276 0.0089 | 0.0134 0.0157 0.0357 0.0089 0.0264 0.0121 | 0.0085 0.0143 0.0340 0.0091 0.0270 0.0105 | |
R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 | 公共服务支出占财政支出比重/% 教育支出占财政支出比重/% 等级公路、铁路网密度/(km/km2) 互联网普及率/% 邮电业务量/亿元 文化体育投资占比/% 城镇化率/% 医疗卫生机构数/个 | 公共服务财政支持力度(-) 教育财政支持力度(-) 地区交通运输接待能力(-) 信息化服务程度(-) 信息传递服务能力(-) 居民休闲环境投入能力(-) 城镇化发展情况(-) 医疗救援能力(-) | 0.0358 0.0267 0.0204 0.0310 0.0136 0.0153 0.0091 0.0121 | 0.0346 0.0259 0.0186 0.0374 0.0228 0.0125 0.0141 0.0257 | 0.0352 0.0263 0.0195 0.0342 0.0182 0.0139 0.0116 0.0189 | ||
R15 R16 R17 | 生活垃圾无害化处理率/% 工业固体废弃物综合利用率/% 环境保护投资增长率/% | 生活废弃物处理能力(-) 工业废弃物处理能力(-) 旅游发展环境支持保障度(-) | 0.0251 0.0149 0.0096 | 0.0197 0.0127 0.0168 | 0.0224 0.0138 0.0132 |
表2
中国旅游经济系统敏感性及应对能力评价标准"
S | 低 | 中 | 高 | R | 低 | 中 | 高 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | [0.05,0.14) | [0.14,0.23) | [0.23,0.31] | R1 | [0.22,0.81) | [0.81,1.40) | [1.40,1.99] |
S2 | [0.00,0.03) | [0.03,0.05) | [0.05,0.08] | R2 | [-0.23,0.02) | [-0.02,0.19) | [0.19,0.40] |
S3 | [-5.71,6.49) | [6.49,18.69) | [18.69,30.89] | R3 | [987.53,3419.22) | [3419.22,5850.90) | [5850.90,8282.59] |
S4 | [0.00,0.04) | [0.04,0.08) | [0.08,0.11] | R4 | [170.00,1026.67) | [1026.67,1883.33) | [1883.33,2740.00] |
S5 | [-1.03,-0.87) | [-0.87,-0.72) | [-0.72,-0.56] | R5 | [27.33,100.45) | [100.45,173.56) | [173.56,246.68] |
S6 | [0.00,0.04) | [0.04,0.07) | [0.07,0.10] | R6 | [314.90,5016.12) | [5016.12,9717.33) | [9717.33,14418.55] |
S7 | [0.05,0.43) | [0.43,0.82) | [0.82,1.21] | R7 | [0.05,0.08) | [0.08,0.10) | [0.10,0.13] |
S8 | [0.16,0.51) | [0.51,0.85) | [0.85,1.20] | R8 | [0.12,0.15) | [0.15,0.17) | [0.17,0.20] |
S9 | [1.30,2.37) | [2.37,3.43) | [3.43,4.50] | R9 | [1.29,9.47) | [9.47,17.66) | [17.66,25.8] |
S10 | [1029.00,9501.00) | [9501.00,17973.00) | [17973.00,26445.00] | R10 | [34.10,47.83) | [47.83,61.57) | [61.57,75.30] |
S11 | [1526.00,12920.67) | [12920.6,24315.33) | [24315.33,35710.00] | R11 | [80.75,1171.62) | [1171.62,2262.48) | [2262.48,3353.35] |
S12 | [462.90,2748.73) | [2748.73,5034.57) | [5034.57,7320.40] | R12 | [0.00,0.01) | [0.01,0.02) | [0.02,0.03] |
S13 | [0.01,0.04) | [0.04,0.08) | [0.08,0.11] | R13 | [0.40,0.57) | [0.57,0.73) | [0.73,0.90] |
S14 | [0.00,0.01) | [0.01,0.02) | [0.02,0.03] | R14 | [79.32,257.62) | [257.62,435.92) | [435.92,614.25] |
S15 | [0.00,0.02) | [0.02,0.03) | [0.03,0.05] | R15 | [0.00,0.02) | [0.02,0.04) | [0.04,0.06] |
S16 | [0.00,0.23) | [0.23,0.46) | [0.46,0.69] | R16 | [30.02,36.69) | [36.69,43.36) | [43.36,50.03] |
S17 | [17.26,33.29) | [33.29,49.32) | [49.32,65.35] | R17 | [0.03,0.05) | [0.05,0.08) | [0.08,0.11] |
表3
2017年中国各省(市、区)旅游经济系统敏感性、脆弱性、应对能力指数"
省份 | S | R | V | 省份 | S | R | V |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
北京 | 0.178 | 0.124 | 1.438 | 河南 | 0.104 | 0.187 | 0.556 |
天津 | 0.132 | 0.187 | 0.706 | 湖北 | 0.115 | 0.170 | 0.678 |
河北 | 0.098 | 0.187 | 0.523 | 湖南 | 0.142 | 0.155 | 0.913 |
山西 | 0.091 | 0.204 | 0.446 | 广东 | 0.374 | 0.124 | 3.019 |
内蒙古 | 0.147 | 0.195 | 0.756 | 广西 | 0.139 | 0.178 | 0.778 |
辽宁 | 0.107 | 0.197 | 0.544 | 海南 | 0.203 | 0.171 | 1.189 |
吉林 | 0.102 | 0.266 | 0.383 | 重庆 | 0.140 | 0.191 | 0.729 |
黑龙江 | 0.100 | 0.267 | 0.375 | 四川 | 0.148 | 0.204 | 0.727 |
上海 | 0.229 | 0.156 | 1.471 | 贵州 | 0.142 | 0.215 | 0.66 |
江苏 | 0.163 | 0.122 | 1.333 | 云南 | 0.227 | 0.198 | 1.148 |
浙江 | 0.242 | 0.121 | 1.989 | 陕西 | 0.147 | 0.174 | 0.846 |
安徽 | 0.188 | 0.166 | 1.13 | 甘肃 | 0.091 | 0.256 | 0.356 |
福建 | 0.198 | 0.152 | 1.303 | 宁夏 | 0.106 | 0.251 | 0.423 |
江西 | 0.092 | 0.173 | 0.533 | 青海 | 0.089 | 0.208 | 0.430 |
山东 | 0.143 | 0.101 | 1.414 | 新疆 | 0.138 | 0.215 | 0.644 |
表4
2017年中国各省(市、区)旅游经济系统敏感性、应对能力、脆弱性的平均值、极差、标准差及变异系数"
平均值 | 极差 | 标准差 | 变异系数 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
东部 | S | 0.184 | 0.276 | 0.075 | 0.408 |
R | 0.205 | 0.143 | 0.043 | 0.210 | |
V | 1.224 | 2.589 | 0.725 | 0.592 | |
中部 | S | 0.120 | 0.097 | 0.033 | 0.275 |
R | 0.163 | 0.086 | 0.030 | 0.184 | |
V | 0.647 | 0.928 | 0.289 | 0.447 | |
西部 | S | 0.137 | 0.138 | 0.041 | 0.299 |
R | 0.176 | 0.150 | 0.044 | 0.250 | |
V | 0.770 | 1.082 | 0.350 | 0.455 | |
全国 | S | 0.151 | 0.284 | 0.061 | 0.404 |
R | 0.184 | 0.166 | 0.043 | 0.234 | |
V | 0.915 | 2.663 | 0.570 | 0.623 |
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