新能源示范城市建设对区域环境污染治理的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.11.13

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新能源示范城市试点是促进中国深入推进生态文明建设的一项重要举措,客观评估其对环境污染的治理效果,对于这一试点政策的进一步推广具有重要意义。本文基于中国261个地级市2002—2016年的面板数据,应用倾向得分匹配法和双重差分法评估了新能源示范城市建设对环境污染的治理效应,并在此基础上引入偏差校正的非参数百分位Bootstrap法,对效应的内在机制进行了解析。研究结论表明：第一,新能源示范城市建设会显著减少废水和废气的排放,进而有效降低城市环境污染;第二,新能源示范城市可以通过能源技术创新效应、产业结构优化效应和财政资金扶持效应3条中介路径实现对环境污染的治理;第三,新能源示范城市建设过程中产生的污染治理效应存在异质性,主要体现为：一方面,经济增长水平较低的城市在进行示范城市建设的过程中往往会产生更大的污染治理效应;另一方面,示范城市的人力资本水平越高,其越能有效地抑制污染物的排放。本研究为中国进一步推进新能源示范城市建设战略、提高新能源示范城市建设质量、总结与推广新能源城市建设经验以及深入研发与推广新能源技术提供了依据。

关键词: 新能源示范城市, 环境污染, 准自然实验, 倾向得分匹配, 双重差分, 非参数百分位Bootstrap法

Abstract:

The pilot construction of new energy demonstration cities is an important policy for deepening the development of the Chinese ecological civilization. Objectively assessing its effect on environmental pollution is of great significance for further promotion of the pilot projects. Based on the panel data of 261 prefecture-level cities in China from 2002 to 2016, this study evaluated the effect of new energy demonstration city construction on environmental pollution by applying the propensity score matching method and the double difference method, and introduced the nonparametric deviation correction based on this. The nonparametric percentile Bootstrap method analyzes the intrinsic mechanism of effects. The conclusions of the study indicate that: First, the construction of new energy demonstration cities will significantly reduce the discharge of wastewater and waste gas, thereby effectively reducing urban environmental pollution. Second, the new energy demonstration cities can achieve environmental pollution control through energy innovation effect, industrial structure optimization effect, and financial support effect. Third, the pollution control effect generated during the construction of new energy demonstration cities is heterogeneous, mainly reflected in that on the one hand, new energy demonstration cities with lower economic growth levels are more effective in controlling pollution; on the other hand, the higher the human capital level of the new energy demonstration cities, the more effective it can suppress pollutant emissions. These conclusions provide an important basis for China to further promote the construction strategy of new energy demonstration cities, improve the quality of new energy demonstration cities, disseminate the experiences of constructing new energy cities, and deepen research and development and promotion of new energy technologies.

Key words: new energy demonstration city, environmental pollution, quasi-natural experiment, propensity score matching, double difference, nonparametric percentile Bootstrap method

逯进, 王恩泽. 新能源示范城市建设对区域环境污染治理的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(11): 2107-2118.

LU JIN, WANG Enze. Impact of new energy demonstration city construction on regional environmental pollution control[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(11): 2107-2118.

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变量		均值		误差率/%	误差变	T检验
变量		对照组	控制组	误差率/%	动率/%	t value	p>\|t\|
人口规模/万人	匹配前	448.94	419.21	10.5		2.47	0.014
	匹配后	449.11	446.22	1.0	90.3	0.23	0.822
城市面积/万km²	匹配前	15926	15712	1.2		0.28	0.782
	匹配后	15943	14686	7.4	-489.1	1.8	0.072
对外开放/（进出口总额/GDP）	匹配前	0.0139	0.015	-6.0		-1.39	0.164
对外开放/（进出口总额/GDP）	匹配后	0.0139	0.0138	0.4	93.4	0.09	0.929
绿地面积/万km²	匹配前	5916.3	5494.6	3.1		0.78	0.433
	匹配后	5802.4	5686.7	0.9	72.5	0.17	0.864
人均GDP/元	匹配前	33257	31590	5.7		1.47	0.142
	匹配后	32711	32704	0.0	99.5	0.01	0.995

变量	(1) 废水排放量	(2) 废气排放量	(3) 废水排放量	(4) 废气排放量
DID	-1316.93***	-19575.98***	-610.22*	-11060.39***
	(-4.1086)	(-8.6577)	(-1.7727)	(-4.6549)
人口数量			-1.62	-13.78
			(-0.5198)	(-0.6395)
城市规模			0.05	0.46
			(0.6539)	(0.9101)
对外开放			-20269.75***	-5588.82
			(-2.6003)	(-0.1039)
绿地面积			-0.02*	-0.60***
			(-1.9194)	(-6.6886)
人均GDP			-0.02***	-0.23***
			(-4.3178)	(-5.7029)
人力资本			-11627.23	-139639.55
			(-0.8053)	(-1.4010)
时间效应	固定	固定	固定	固定
个体效应	固定	固定	固定	固定
样本量	2673	2673	2673	2673

	变量的重新度量		反事实检验
	（5）人均废水排放量	（6）人均废气排放量	(7) 废水排放量	(8) 废气排放量
DID	-0.0002**	-0.0033***	428.82	-952.56
	(-2.0517)	(-3.4660)	(1.3084)	(-0.4385)
控制变量	控制	控制	控制	控制
时间效应	固定	固定	固定	固定
个体效应	固定	固定	固定	固定
样本量	2673	2673	2673	2673

	被解释变量为废水				被解释变量为废气
	效应值	Boot SE	BootLLCI	BootULCI	效应值	Boot SE	BootLLCI	BootULCI
总间接效应	-394.84	110.19	-553.28	-200.52	-8110.39	1222.52	-10207.10	-6188.23
能源技术创新效应	106.10	63.36	32.95	256.73	-870.07	593.32	-2116.14	-124.53
财政资金扶持效应	-400.34	90.41	-567.84	-271.60	-3145.19	702.78	-4459.51	-2163.10
产业结构优化效应	-100.61	52.44	-191.33	-16.67	-4095.13	730.85	-5440.79	-3021.45

	经济发展水平		人力资本水平
	(9) 废水排放量	(10) 废气排放量	（11）废水排放量	（12）废气排放量
DID1	(9) 废水排放量	(10) 废气排放量	（11）废水排放量	（12）废气排放量	-122.15	-10171.90***
	(-0.3040)	(-3.6638)
DID2	-1801.51***	-13229.00***
	(-2.9403)	(-3.1247)
DID3			-949.82*	-11653.69***
			(-1.6326)	(-2.9006)
DID4			-1530.21***	-10791.93***
			(-3.9162)	(-3.8650)