中国地级市城乡建设用地与人口增长脱钩分析

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.10.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文基于脱钩理论与方法,以中国地级市为研究区,对中国各地级市城镇、乡村、城乡人地脱钩状态及特征进行分析,并构建了基于脱钩类型的土地利用分区模型,探究了不同用地分区模式下的土地节约集约利用策略。研究表明：①国家尺度下,中国城乡人地关系整体处于不协调状态,城镇建设用地与城镇人口同向增长态势相对稳定,乡村建设用地显著扩张和乡村人口快速持续减少的反向两极分化日趋严重。②市级尺度下,不同维度各地市的人地关系脱钩类型各有不同,74.2%地市的“城-乡”人地关系处于不协调状态;36.2%地市的“城”人地关系处于不协调状态;81.6%地市的“乡”人地关系处于非常不协调状态。③中国土地利用可以划分“城-乡”双集约、“城”集约、“乡”集约、“城-乡”双控4种类型区,“城”集约和“城-乡”双控两种类型区地市个数占到97.9%,不同类型区土地集约利用调控方向和措施存在差异,但其最终目标均是要通过对人口、产业和土地利用的科学合理引导和管控,实现“城”、“乡”以及“城与乡”的人地和谐发展。

关键词: 脱钩理论, 城乡建设用地, 人口, 土地利用分区, 地级市尺度, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the decoupling theory, this study analyzed the urban, rural, and urban-rural construction land and population change decoupling status and characteristics in China at the prefectural level. A decoupling-based land-use zoning model was built to explore land conversion and intensive utilization strategy in different land use zones. The results show that: (1) At the national level, the relationship of urban-rural human population and construction land was in an uncoordinated state. During 2010-2016, urban construction land and population both stably increased. However, rural construction land significantly expanded while rural population has been rapidly decreasing at the same time. (2) At the prefectural level, the decoupling types of cities in China varied in different dimensions. Cities whose urban-rural human-land relationships were uncoordinated accounted for 74.2% of all cities in China. Meanwhile, cities with uncoordinated urban human-land relationships accounted for 36.2% of all cities in China. Besides, 81.6% of all cities in China had uncoordinated rural human-land relationships. (3) On the basis of decoupling types, land use were divided into four types, including urban-rural intensive, urban intensive, rural intensive, and urban-rural extensive. Cities in urban intensive and urban-rural extensive zones accounted for 97.9% of all cites in China. According to the characteristics of different land use zones, this study suggested various regulatory and control countermeasures, in order to promote the sustainable development in urban and rural areas.

Key words: decoupling theory, urban and rural construction land, population, land use zoning, the prefectural level, China

李牧,郝晋珉,陈丽,顾恬玮,管青春,陈爱琪. 中国地级市城乡建设用地与人口增长脱钩分析[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(10): 1897-1910.

LI Mu,HAO Jinmin,CHEN Li,GU Tianwei,GUAN Qingchun,CHEN Aiqi. Decoupling of urban and rural construction land and population change in China at the prefectural level[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(10): 1897-1910.

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脱钩状态		ΔL	ΔP	EC	状态阐释
脱钩	弱脱钩	≥0	≥0	0.0≤ EC≤0.8	二者均增长,但人口增速相对较快
	强脱钩	<0	>0	EC<0	人口增长,建设用地减少,人地关系最佳状态
	衰退脱钩	<0	<0	EC>1.2	二者均减少,但建设用地减速相对较快
负脱钩	扩张负脱钩	>0	>0	EC>1.2	二者均增长,但建设用地增速较快
	强负脱钩	>0	<0	EC<0	建设用地增长,人口减少,人地关系最不理想状态
	弱负脱钩	≤0	≤0	0.0≤ EC≤0.8	二者均减少,但人口减速较快
连结	扩张连结	>0	>0	0.8≤ EC≤1.2	二者均增长,且相对保持同步
连结	衰退连结	<0	<0	0.8≤ EC≤1.2	二者均减少,且相对保持同步

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
中国总人口/万人	134091	134735	135404	136072	136782	137462	138271
城镇人口比重/%	49.95	51.27	52.57	53.73	54.77	56.1	57.35
乡村人口比重/%	50.05	48.73	47.43	46.27	45.23	43.9	42.65

维度	要素A	总增长率/%	要素B	总增长率/%	脱钩系数	脱钩类型
城乡维度	城乡建设用地	8.84	总人口	4.29	2.06	扩张负脱钩
城镇维度	城镇建设用地	19.33	城镇人口	18.86	1.02	扩张连结
乡村维度	乡村建设用地	3.27	乡村人口	-10.46	-0.31	强负脱钩