资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (10): 1886-1896.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.10.11
收稿日期:
2019-01-25
修回日期:
2019-07-08
出版日期:
2019-10-25
发布日期:
2019-10-25
通讯作者:
王振波
作者简介:
宋周莺,女,浙江缙云人,副研究员,硕士生导师,博士,主要从事经济地理与区域贸易研究。E-mail: songzy@igsnrr. ac.cn
基金资助:
SONG Zhouying1,2,YU Yang1,2,LIANG Longwu1,2,WANG Zhenbo1,2()
Received:
2019-01-25
Revised:
2019-07-08
Online:
2019-10-25
Published:
2019-10-25
Contact:
WANG Zhenbo
摘要:
改革开放40多年来,中国区域经济发展取得重大成就,但出口导向型的粗放式发展模式也导致一些严重的生态环境问题。为了实现可持续发展,中国加速推进经济发展方式转变的步伐。在此背景下,本文从区域发展视角解读发展方式转变的内涵,采用2005—2016年省域面板数据系统剖析中国经济发展方式时空演变特征及其环境效应。研究结果显示:①2005年以来,中国经济发展方式转型总体可分为平稳转变、转变停滞、加速转变3个阶段;②2005—2016年,东部各省经济发展方式转变取得显著成效,西部多数省份发展方式转变的效果并不明显,省际差异呈扩大态势;③经济发展方式转变对单位GDP能耗、固体废弃物产生量、二氧化硫排放量、废水排放量、烟(粉)尘排放量等环境因素的影响显著,经济发展方式指数每上升1%,其各类要素分别下降2.710%,5.348%、8.403%、7.407%和14.925%;而经济发展方式指数对单位GDP氮氧化物排放量、电力消费量的影响甚微。实现可持续发展是控制工业污染物排放的重要手段。
宋周莺,虞洋,梁龙武,王振波. 中国经济发展方式的时空演变特征及其环境效应[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(10): 1886-1896.
SONG Zhouying,YU Yang,LIANG Longwu,WANG Zhenbo. Transformation of China’s economic development pattern and its environmental effects[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(10): 1886-1896.
表3
中国省域经济发展方式指数的年度空间自相关系数"
年份 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Moran’s I | 0.145 | 0.134 | 0.127 | 0.178 | 0.104 | 0.129 | 0.129 | 0.095 | 0.095 | 0.157 | 0.169 | 0.173 |
Z(I) | 2.39** | 2.90** | 2.78*** | 2.77*** | 1.79* | 2.11** | 2.12** | 1.69* | 1.72* | 2.47*** | 2.29** | 2.38* |
P值 | 0.047 | 0.038 | 0.055 | 0.006 | 0.073 | 0.035 | 0.034 | 0.091 | 0.091 | 0.014 | 0.019 | 0.022 |
表4
经济发展方式指数空间面板计量回归结果"
空间面板误差模型(SEM) | 空间面板滞后模型(SLM) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
模型参数 | 变量系数 | t统计值 | 模型参数 | 变量系数 | t统计值 | |
lnEC | -0.135** | -2.134 | lnEC | -0.369*** | -5.314 | |
lnU | -0.107*** | -3.481 | lnU | -0.187** | -2.569 | |
lnS | -0.064 | 1.394 | lnS | -0.119** | 2.449 | |
lnW | -0.061 | -0.913 | lnW | -0.135** | -2.238 | |
lnA | -0.059* | -1.934 | lnA | -0.067* | -1.897 | |
lnNO | 0.033 | 0.857 | lnNO | 0.061 | 0.947 | |
lnE | 0.041 | 0.976 | lnE | 0.054 | 0.814 | |
λ | 0.617* | 1.947 | ρ | -0.236*** | -4.384 | |
R2 | 0.5598 | —— | R2 | 0.7964 | —— | |
Corrected R2 | 0.5867 | —— | Corrected R2 | 0.8647 | —— | |
LMERR | 0.647* | 1.643 | LMLAG | 4.231** | 2.186 | |
R-LMERR | 1.364 | 1.547 | R-LMLAG | 4.618** | 2.224 | |
Log似然估计值 | 93.842 | —— | Log似然估计值 | 134.687 | —— | |
AIC | 56.478 | —— | AIC | 47.547 | —— | |
SC | 39.618 | —— | SC | 27.641 | —— |
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