中国经济发展方式的时空演变特征及其环境效应

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.10.11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

改革开放40多年来,中国区域经济发展取得重大成就,但出口导向型的粗放式发展模式也导致一些严重的生态环境问题。为了实现可持续发展,中国加速推进经济发展方式转变的步伐。在此背景下,本文从区域发展视角解读发展方式转变的内涵,采用2005—2016年省域面板数据系统剖析中国经济发展方式时空演变特征及其环境效应。研究结果显示：①2005年以来,中国经济发展方式转型总体可分为平稳转变、转变停滞、加速转变3个阶段;②2005—2016年,东部各省经济发展方式转变取得显著成效,西部多数省份发展方式转变的效果并不明显,省际差异呈扩大态势;③经济发展方式转变对单位GDP能耗、固体废弃物产生量、二氧化硫排放量、废水排放量、烟（粉）尘排放量等环境因素的影响显著,经济发展方式指数每上升1%,其各类要素分别下降2.710%,5.348%、8.403%、7.407%和14.925%;而经济发展方式指数对单位GDP氮氧化物排放量、电力消费量的影响甚微。实现可持续发展是控制工业污染物排放的重要手段。

关键词: 经济发展方式转变, 时空演变, 环境效应, 可持续发展, 中国

Abstract:

Over the past 40 years, the continuous rapid economic growth in China has led to some serious sustainable development problems, due to the export-oriented development pattern. In order to achieve sustained, stable, and healthy development of the economy, China has accelerated the transformation of economic development pattern. Under this background, this study examined the spatiotemporal structure of transformation of economic development pattern in China and its environmental effects by improving the index of growth model (IGM) indicator system, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and a spatial econometric model. The findings are as follows: (1) The transformation of China’s economic development pattern has achieved remarkable results, with IGM increasing from 0.540 to 0.691. However, this transformation has gone through great fluctuations since 2005, which can be divided into three stages smooth transformation stage, stagnation stage, and accelerated transformation stage. (2) In 2005-2014, most provinces in eastern China attained significant achievements in the transformation of economic development pattern, while the transformation in most provinces of western China were relatively slow. As a result, the spatial differences between provincial IGM kept expanding. (3) The transformation of economic development pattern has positive environmental effects, with significant reduce in energy consumption per unit of GDP, industrial solid wastes produced per unit of GDP, and waste water discharged per unit of GDP. But it has no obvious correlation with the nitrogen oxides emissions per GDP and the consumption of electricity.

Key words: transformation of economic development pattern, spatiotemporal structure, environmental effects, sustainable development, China

宋周莺,虞洋,梁龙武,王振波. 中国经济发展方式的时空演变特征及其环境效应[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(10): 1886-1896.

SONG Zhouying,YU Yang,LIANG Longwu,WANG Zhenbo. Transformation of China’s economic development pattern and its environmental effects[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(10): 1886-1896.

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总指数	一级指标	权重	二级指标	权重
经济发展方式指数（IGM）	经济增长（IED）	0.361	GDP增长率/%	0.132
			消费及出口占GDP比重（非投资的比重）/%	0.122
			工业增加值率（工业增加值/工业总产值）/%	0.107
	产业结构(IIS)	0.396	非农产业占GDP比重/%	0.136
			生产性服务业占GDP比重/%	0.124
			装备制造业占GDP比重/%	0.136
	社会民生(ISL)	0.243	城镇人均可支配收入增长率/GDP增长率	0.114
	社会民生(ISL)	0.243	农村人均纯收入增长率/GDP增长率	0.129

	lnEC	lnU	lnS	lnW	lnA	lnNO	lnE
lnEC	1	0.558**	0.543**	0.284**	0.544**	0.376	0.471**
lnU		1	0.641**	0.270**	0.431**	0.333**	0.397
lnS			1	0.547**	0.497**	0.391**	0.454**
lnW				1	0.540**	0.234**	0.367**
lnA					1	0.499**	0.444**
lnNO						1	0.495**
lnE							1

年份	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Moran’s I	0.145	0.134	0.127	0.178	0.104	0.129	0.129	0.095	0.095	0.157	0.169	0.173
Z（I）	2.39**	2.90**	2.78***	2.77***	1.79*	2.11**	2.12**	1.69*	1.72*	2.47***	2.29**	2.38*
P值	0.047	0.038	0.055	0.006	0.073	0.035	0.034	0.091	0.091	0.014	0.019	0.022

空间面板误差模型（SEM）			空间面板滞后模型（SLM）
模型参数	变量系数	t统计值	模型参数	变量系数	t统计值
lnEC	-0.135**	-2.134	lnEC	-0.369***	-5.314
lnU	-0.107***	-3.481	lnU	-0.187**	-2.569
lnS	-0.064	1.394	lnS	-0.119**	2.449
lnW	-0.061	-0.913	lnW	-0.135**	-2.238
lnA	-0.059*	-1.934	lnA	-0.067*	-1.897
lnNO	0.033	0.857	lnNO	0.061	0.947
lnE	0.041	0.976	lnE	0.054	0.814
λ	0.617*	1.947	ρ	-0.236***	-4.384
R²	0.5598	——	R²	0.7964	——
Corrected R²	0.5867	——	Corrected R²	0.8647	——
LMERR	0.647*	1.643	LMLAG	4.231**	2.186
R-LMERR	1.364	1.547	R-LMLAG	4.618**	2.224
Log似然估计值	93.842	——	Log似然估计值	134.687	——
AIC	56.478	——	AIC	47.547	——
SC	39.618	——	SC	27.641	——