新疆棉花主产区地膜回收对农户利润的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.10.08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

农户是农业生产经营的微观主体,科学测定地膜回收的经济效益对于提高其地膜回收的积极性具有重要意义。文章基于新疆棉花主产区591户农户调查数据,运用倾向值匹配法测算了地膜回收的增产效果,进一步结合当前的成本投入情况分析了地膜回收对农户利润的影响。研究结果表明：①农户地膜回收决策受户主身体健康状况、宣传力度、惩罚力度、地膜回收补贴、农田地膜污染程度和农户污染治理主体责任认知等因素的显著影响;②考虑样本农户自选择和内生性问题后,地膜回收使农户亩均籽棉产量平均提高了12.49 kg,这一平均处理效应远低于现有的自然科学试验结果;③在当前棉花价格下和回收补贴政策下,地膜回收能够增加农户净利润,但地膜回收机械使用成本和补贴额度对农户新增利润影响较大。在此基础上,文章从完善地膜回收的约束型政策规制、激励型政策规制和地膜回收体系3个方面提出相应的政策建议。

关键词: 地膜回收, 棉花, 农户利润, 内生性, 倾向值匹配法, 新疆

Abstract:

Farmers are the microscopic subjects of agricultural production and management. Therefore, accurately measuring the economic benefits of plastic film recovery is of great significance for improving the enthusiasm of farmers for engaging in plastic film recovery. On the basis of the survey data of farmers from 591 households in the main cotton producing areas of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China, this study applied the propensity score matching method to measure the yield increase effect of the plastic film recovery, and further analyzed the effect of plastic film recovery on farmers’ profits based on the current cost of input. The research results reveal that: (1) The health status of the head of household, the propaganda, punishment and reward in government regulation, the degree of residual plastic film pollution in farmland and the recognition of the responsibility of the main body of pollution control have significant positive effects on farmers' participation in plastic film recovery; (2) Plastic film recovery increases farmers’ average seed cotton yield per mu by 12.49 kg after considering the self-selection and endogeneity of the sample farmers, and this average treatment effect is lower than the existing test results in scientific literature; (3) Under the current cotton price and the recovery subsidy policy, farmers can achieve an increase in net profit, but the cost of plastic film recycling machinery and the amount of subsidies have a greater impact on farmers’ new profits. On this basis, this article puts forward corresponding policy recommendations from the following three aspects: the environmental regulation of film recovery, the incentive policy and regulation, and the film recovery system.

Key words: plastic film recovery, cotton, farmers’ profits;, endogeneity, propensity score matching, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

王太祥,滕晨光,张朝辉. 新疆棉花主产区地膜回收对农户利润的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(10): 1849-1858.

WANG Taixiang,TENG Chenguang,ZHANG Zhaohui. Effects of plastic film recovery in main cotton production areas of Xinjiang on farmers’ profits[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(10): 1849-1858.

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参考文献 28

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指标类型	变量名称	变量定义	赋值说明	回收组 N=255		未回收组 N=336		差值
指标类型	变量名称	变量定义	赋值说明	均值	标准误	均值	标准误	差值
产量指标	籽棉亩产量	每亩籽棉产量	kg	359.71	73.09	344.82	69.76	14.89**
个人特征	户主年龄	按农户的实际年龄计	岁	48.11	7.80	47.80	8.89	0.31
	户主受教育年限	按户主接受的教育年限计	年	7.21	3.36	7.39	3.09	-0.18
	身体健康状况	户主的身体健康状况	1=很差,2=较差,3=一般,4=较好,5=很好	3.86	0.92	3.62	0.91	0.24**
家庭特征	是否为干部或党员	家中是否有人是党员或担任村级以上干部	1=是,0=否	0.34	0.48	0.31	0.46	0.03
	棉花种植面积	农户实际棉花种植面积	亩	106.48	104.27	99.68	113.65	6.80
	农业收入占比	农业收入占家庭收入的比重	连续变量	0.90	0.19	0.90	0.20	0.00
政府规制	宣传力度	政府对地膜污染危害性和回收政策的宣传力度	1=很小,2=较小,3=一般,4=较大,5=很大	3.20	1.36	2.95	1.38	0.25**
	惩罚力度	政府对地膜不回收的经济惩罚力度	1=很小,2=较小,3=一般,4=较大,5=很大	3.73	1.35	3.60	1.29	0.13
	地膜回收补贴	政府是否对农户回收地膜给予经济补贴	1=是,0=否	0.38	0.49	0.29	0.45	0.09**
农户认知	农田地膜污染程度	农户对自家农田地膜污染程度的认知	1=很小,2=较小,3=一般,4=较大,5=很大	2.55	1.19	2.30	0.99	0.25***
	污染治理主体责任	地膜回收的农户主体责任认知	1=责任小,2=一般,3=责任大	2.56	0.68	2.38	0.73	0.18***

变量	系数	标准误差	边际影响
户主年龄	0.0044	0.0111	0.0010
户主受教育年限	-0.0175	0.0297	-0.0039
身体健康状况	0.2672***	0.0981	0.0602
是否为干部或党员	0.1535	0.1923	0.0345
棉花种植面积	0.0006	0.0008	0.0001
农业收入占比	0.0767	0.4751	0.0172
宣传力度	0.2139***	0.0723	0.0482
惩罚力度	0.2008***	0.0768	0.0452
地膜回收补贴	0.3743**	0.1875	0.0843
农田地膜污染程度	0.3251***	0.0834	0.0732
污染治理主体责任	0.4216***	0.1292	0.0950
Log likelihood=-379.1930		LR chi²(11)=49.7800
Prob>chi²=0.0000		Pseudo-R²=0.0616

匹配方法		Pseudo-R²	LR统计量	p>chi²	MeanBias
匹配前	—	0.062	49.940	0.000	13.600
	K近邻匹配	0.003	2.010	0.998	2.600
	卡尺匹配	0.002	1.620	0.999	2.600
匹配后	核匹配	0.001	0.940	1.000	1.700
	卡尺内最近邻匹配	0.004	2.750	0.994	3.100
	样条匹配	0.007	4.650	0.947	4.900

匹配方法	平均处理效应
K近邻匹配	12.21*	7.16
卡尺匹配	12.26*	6.95
核匹配	13.36**	6.52
卡尺内最近邻匹配	11.96*	7.25
样条匹配	12.65**	6.06
平均值	12.49	—

项目	具体科目	无政策补贴	有政策补贴
亩均投入变动/元	秋季地膜回收成本	40	40
	春季地膜回收成本	25	25
	残膜运输成本	5	5
亩均产出变动^a/元	籽棉增产收入	84.93	84.93
政府每亩补贴补贴^b/元	地膜回收补贴收入	0	12
亩均利润变动/元	利润	14.93	26.93