公平视角下中国地区碳排放权分配研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.10.04

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在国际碳博弈中,碳排放权的主流分配原则有10余种之多,应用不同分配原则的分配结果差别迥异,地区对不同原则的偏好或排斥也较为悬殊。为寻求分配协商共识,要求必须建立以公平为基础的分配方案。本文首先基于2017年全球碳浓度变化测算出全球排放空间和中国的排放总额,进而利用等人均、等产出、等空间、历史排放以及地区碳汇5个单一原则实现从全国总额到地方配额的分配。根据单一原则下各地区的分配数据计算各原则对应的相对剥夺系数,并以相对剥夺系数为基础的公平感受评价构建权重,最终形成多原则综合加权的分配方案。通过对2017年为例的碳排放权分配研究,得出如下结论：①基于单一原则的配额分配结果表明,历史排放原则是最有利于中国排放权配额获取以及最能体现地区分配公平的原则。②五大原则的综合加权分配结果表明,获得配额最大的3个地区分别为：山东、江苏、广东;获得配额最小的3个地区分别为：海南、宁夏、甘肃。各省配额汇总的全国碳排放权总额为603464.5万t,与当前实际排放存在数200000万~300000万t的差距之差,与中国国际减排责任分担较为一致。③基于个体感受公平的加权分配方案具有良好的操作性、稳健性和兼容性。为切实推动全国碳排放权分配工作实施开展及更好的实现地区生态资源配置公平,主要建议如下：碳排放权配额分配要求科学合理的制定全国分配总额,使地区和企业形成稳定的配额预期;有效设计分配原则方案,兼顾公平性和可操作性,地区减排责任分担不搞“一刀切”。

关键词: 碳排放权, 分配, 公平视角, 相对剥夺系数, 综合加权, 中国

Abstract:

In the international carbon game, there are more than 10 kinds of main distribution principles of carbon emission rights. Different distribution principles lead to different results, and the preference or aversion of different principles vary greatly from region to region. In order to seek consensus on emission reduction and allocation, it is necessary to establish a fair allocation scheme. This study first calculated the global emission space and China’s total quotas based on the global carbon concentration changes in 2017, and then allocated the quotas for different regions in the country under five individual allocation principles, namely per capital principle, equal output principle, equal space principle, historical emission principle, and regional carbon sequestration principle. Relative deprivation coefficient was calculated using the allocation data of each region under these five individual principles, and weights were derived based on relative deprivation coefficients. Finally, the allocation of multi-principle comprehensive weighted scheme was performed. From the analysis of emission quotas in 2017, the main conclusions are as follows: (1)The historical emission principle is the most beneficial to China in acquisition of emission quotas, while the per capital principle can demonstrate fairness of equitable regional allocation. (2) Results obtained from the multi-principle comprehensive weighted allocation scheme show that the three areas with highest quota are Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong provinces, whereas the three areas with lowest quota are Hainan Province, Ningxia Autonomous Region, and Gansu Province. The total amount of national carbon emission rights collected by the provincial quotas is 6.034 billion ton, which is billions of difference from the actual emission at present and is in line with China's international responsibility for emission reduction. (3) the weighted allocation scheme based on the individual feeling fairness principle has good operability, robustness and compatibility. The main suggestions are as follows: carbon emission right quota allocation requires a scientific and reasonable formulation of the total amount of national allocation, so that regions and enterprises form a stable quota expectation. To effectively design the scheme of carbon emission allocation principles, we need to take into account fairness and operability, and regional responsibility sharing for emission reduction should not be “one-size-fits-all”.

Key words: carbon emission rights, allocation, equity perspective, relative deprivation coefficient, comprehensive weight, China

杨超,吴立军,李江风,黄天能. 公平视角下中国地区碳排放权分配研究[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(10): 1801-1813.

YANG Chao,WU Lijun,LI Jiangfeng,HUANG Tianneng. Distribution of carbon emission rights in China based on equity perspective[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(10): 1801-1813.

图/表 5

图1

表1

图2

表2

各原则下相对剥夺系数与分配权重估算"

地区	相对剥夺系数						分配权重/%
地区	等产出	等人	等空间	历史排放	碳汇能力	等产出	等人均	等空间	历史排放	碳汇能力
北京	0.29	1.19	15.66	1.17	28.34	47.67	26.03	0.00	26.30	0.00
天津	0.68	1.99	23.74	0.87	110.57	44.72	15.98	0.00	39.31	0.00
河北	0.15	0.04	0.73	0.01	3.05	25.36	26.91	17.87	27.36	2.50
山西	1.01	0.42	0.98	0.09	3.44	18.51	27.46	18.90	32.99	2.14
内蒙古	0.88	0.91	0.01	0.11	0.02	14.31	14.03	24.31	23.18	24.17
辽宁	0.41	0.27	1.09	0.06	0.97	21.65	23.47	13.65	26.34	14.90
吉林	0.97	0.79	0.73	0.79	0.10	16.16	18.41	19.09	18.35	27.98
黑龙江	0.87	0.39	0.16	0.37	0.00	14.25	19.57	22.23	19.76	24.18
上海	0.24	0.98	43.35	0.42	222.90	39.66	24.60	0.00	35.74	0.00
江苏	0.00	0.03	1.85	0.01	5.58	30.66	30.25	8.32	30.55	0.23
浙江	0.06	0.14	1.87	0.10	1.20	27.08	26.02	7.47	26.52	12.91
安徽	0.30	0.10	1.17	0.38	1.55	24.74	27.72	13.78	23.60	10.16
福建	0.20	0.37	1.45	0.40	0.23	23.75	21.61	10.02	21.24	23.39
江西	0.55	0.24	0.88	0.90	0.45	20.62	24.74	16.49	16.29	21.85
山东	0.01	0.00	1.00	0.00	3.83	27.81	27.96	15.02	28.01	1.19
河南	0.09	0.01	0.88	0.05	1.68	24.96	26.03	15.33	25.46	8.22
湖北	0.15	0.11	0.74	0.16	0.79	22.83	23.25	15.91	22.64	15.37
湖南	0.17	0.06	0.61	0.20	0.63	21.86	23.13	16.82	21.57	16.61
广东	0.00	0.00	0.78	0.01	0.56	22.98	22.98	14.45	22.88	16.71
广西	0.57	0.21	0.52	0.66	0.32	18.59	23.03	19.16	17.55	21.67
海南	5.40	4.02	7.28	7.06	3.84	10.04	39.28	1.53	1.92	47.23
重庆	0.62	0.64	2.51	0.83	2.06	29.47	29.18	6.35	25.50	9.50
四川	0.14	0.02	0.15	0.11	0.00	19.38	20.65	19.35	19.74	20.88
贵州	1.20	0.45	0.81	0.60	0.73	14.43	24.17	19.18	22.03	20.18
云南	0.84	0.22	0.23	0.53	0.00	14.61	21.66	21.49	17.97	24.28
陕西	0.49	0.38	0.64	0.45	0.48	19.91	21.28	18.16	20.51	20.14
甘肃	2.76	0.86	0.16	1.06	1.22	4.56	22.90	35.25	19.81	17.49
青海	9.77	6.73	0.06	2.78	8.75	0.01	0.22	88.99	10.75	0.03
宁夏	7.25	5.80	3.31	1.93	62.22	0.43	1.82	21.37	76.38	0.00
新疆	1.68	1.00	0.00	0.24	0.61	9.12	15.70	29.14	25.59	20.46
全国^④	0.42	0.31	1.67	0.25	8.41

表2

表3

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地区	等产出	等人均	等空间	历史排放	碳汇能力	最小配额	最大配额
北京	16413	10023	449	14741	135	16413	135
天津	10900	7206	302	17383	35	17383	35
河北	21080	34457	5013	63329	1019	63329	1019
山西	8777	16982	4174	41705	921	41705	921
内蒙古	9439	11625	31593	40176	12728	40176	9439
辽宁	14034	20194	3896	46827	2370	46827	2370
吉林	8962	12607	5005	18263	8728	18263	5005
黑龙江	9496	17525	12146	26015	15562	26015	9496
上海	17663	11161	168	24582	18	24582	18
江苏	50351	36895	2740	63663	612	63663	612
浙江	30344	25785	2724	40717	2051	40717	2051
安徽	16130	28578	3731	25640	1710	28578	1710
福建	18932	17870	3239	25184	5752	25184	3239
江西	12203	21183	4460	17092	3864	21183	3864
山东	42601	45881	4107	79974	844	79974	844
河南	26370	43971	4460	48950	1617	48950	1617
湖北	21408	27146	4965	35394	2711	35394	2711
湖南	20275	31468	5656	33389	3131	33389	3131
广东	52683	50736	4807	63078	3376	63078	3376
广西	11955	22316	6302	20053	4819	22316	4819
海南	2616	4230	908	3890	842	4230	842
重庆	11430	14062	2198	17740	1386	17740	1386
四川	21676	38110	12856	39731	15894	39731	12856
贵州	7937	16398	4700	20933	2845	20933	2845
云南	9690	22005	10236	22176	16018	22176	9690
陕西	12836	17587	5491	24019	3746	24019	3746
甘肃	4500	12039	12135	15647	2030	15647	2030
青海	1549	2737	19289	8333	410	19289	410
宁夏	2025	3113	1773	10789	62	10789	62
新疆	6401	11062	44331	30867	3184	44331	3184
全国	500675	634953	223853	940280	118421	976005	93464