资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (8): 1576-1588.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.16

• 土地资源 • 上一篇    

江西省农业人口转移对耕地利用效率影响的门槛效应

邹秀清1,王英1(),武婷燕2,尹玉林2,涂小松1,徐国良1   

  1. 1.江西财经大学旅游与城市管理学院,南昌 330032
    2.江西财经大学经济学院,南昌 330032
  • 收稿日期:2018-12-21 修回日期:2019-02-24 出版日期:2019-08-25 发布日期:2019-08-21
  • 通讯作者: 王英 E-mail:632514871@qq.com
  • 作者简介:邹秀清,男,江西庐山人,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为土地经济与制度。E-mail: zxqing888@263.net
  • 基金资助:
    江西省自然科学基金项目(20181BAA208012);江西省自然科学基金项目(20171BAA208016);国家自然科学基金项目(71563015)

Threshold effect of agricultural population transfer on cultivated land use efficiency in Jiangxi Province

Xiuqing ZOU1,Ying WANG1(),Tingyan WU2,Yulin YIN2,Xiaosong TU1,Guoliang XU1   

  1. 1.College of Tourism and Urban Management, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330032, China
    2.School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330032, China
  • Received:2018-12-21 Revised:2019-02-24 Online:2019-08-25 Published:2019-08-21
  • Contact: Ying WANG E-mail:632514871@qq.com

摘要:

大规模农业人口向城镇及第二、三产业转移,引起其他农业生产要素改变,最终影响耕地利用效率。本文以江西省11个地级市为研究区域,运用超效率EBM(Epsilon Based Measure)模型测度2007—2016年江西省各地市耕地利用效率,通过面板门槛模型以农业转移人口占农业人口比重为门槛变量,分析农业人口转移对耕地利用效率的影响。研究表明:考察期内江西省各地市农业转移人口与耕地利用效率均呈上升趋势,且区域差异显著;2016年江西省大多数地市农业人口转移对耕地利用效率的影响表现出门槛效应,在门槛值(0.428)前后,农业人口转移始终促进耕地利用效率提升,但跨越门槛值后其影响系数减小,由0.5089降至0.2495,促进作用减弱51%。可按农业人口转移程度是否跨越门槛值进行分区,针对不同区域提出差异化的耕地利用效率提升对策。

关键词: 农业人口转移, 耕地利用效率, 面板门槛模型, 超效率EBM模型, 江西省

Abstract:

The large-scale transfer of agricultural population to cities and secondary and tertiary industries causes other agricultural production factors to change, ultimately affecting the efficiency of cultivated land use. In this study, 11 cities in Jiangxi Province were used as research areas. The super-EBM (Epsilon Based Measure) model was used to measure the utilization efficiency of cultivated land from 2007 to 2016. On this basis, taking the proportion of agricultural transferred population in agricultural population as the threshold variable, the impact of agricultural population transfer on farmland utilization efficiency was analyzed through the panel threshold model. The study indicates that during the inspection period, the agricultural transfer population and the cultivated land use efficiency of the cities in Jiangxi Province showed an upward trend, and the regional differences were significant. In 2016, the impact of agricultural population transfer on the efficiency of cultivated land utilization in most cities of Jiangxi Province showed a threshold effect. Before and after the threshold value (0.428), agricultural population transfer always promoted the efficiency of cultivated land use, but its impact coefficient decreased from 0.5089 to 0.2495. The promotion effect is reduced by 51%. According to whether the degree of agricultural population transfer is across the threshold, the countermeasures for improving the utilization efficiency of cultivated land for different regions are proposed.

Key words: agricultural population transfer, land use efficiency, panel threshold model, super-EBM (Epsilon Based Measure) model, Jiangxi Province