资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (8): 1461-1474.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.07

• 资源经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

城镇化对中国粮食安全的影响——基于省区面板数据的实证分析

高延雷,张正岩,魏素豪,王志刚   

  1. 中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京 100872
  • 收稿日期:2018-11-16 修回日期:2019-05-24 出版日期:2019-08-28 发布日期:2019-08-21
  • 作者简介:高延雷,男,山东乐陵人,博士生,从事粮食安全、产业经济问题研究。E-mail: yanleigao@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71773136);国家自然科学基金应急管理项目(71841010)

Impact of urbanization on food security: Evidence from provincial panel data in China

Yanlei GAO,Zhengyan ZHANG,Suhao WEI,Zhigang WANG   

  1. School of Agricultural and Rural Development, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2018-11-16 Revised:2019-05-24 Online:2019-08-28 Published:2019-08-21

摘要:

尽管城镇化对农业发展的作用一直引起学界的广泛关注,但其对粮食安全的影响尚未形成一致的定论。基于2000—2016年中国31个省(区、市)的面板数据,本文利用中介效应模型探讨了城镇化影响粮食安全的作用机制,并进行了各粮食生产功能区细分的实证分析。结果发现:从全国水平看,城镇化对粮食安全具有显著的正向影响;其中,农地、农业劳动力和农业技术分别发挥了显著的负向、负向和正向中介效应,并且农业技术的正向中介效应最大;从粮食生产功能区细分来看,在粮食主产区和粮食产销平衡区,城镇化对粮食安全均具有显著的正向影响,其中,农业技术的正向中介效应远远大于农地和农业劳动力的负向中介效应;而在粮食主销区,城镇化对粮食安全具有显著的负向影响,其机制表现为农地、农业劳动力和农业技术3种中介作用,并且农地的负向中介效应最大。为确保粮食安全应集约利用农地、提高劳动力质量以及加强农业技术投入。

关键词: 城镇化, 粮食安全, 要素配置, 中介效应, 粮食生产功能区, 中国

Abstract:

The role of urbanization in agricultural development has always attracted wide attention of researchers. However, a consensus on the impact of urbanization on food security has not been reached. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China’s mainland from 2000 to 2016, this study used the mediation effect model to explore the impacting mechanism of urbanization on food security, and carried out an empirical analysis for the different types of grain supply-demand balance areas. The results show that urbanization has a significant positive impact on food security in terms of national level. With regard to the effects of the mediating factors, land and labor are negative, while agricultural technology is positive and most significant. Urbanization has a significant positive impact on food security in the main grain producing areas and the supply-demand balanced areas, and the positive intermediary effect of agricultural technology is far greater than the negative effects of both land and labor. However, a significant negative impact exists in the grain importing areas, and the impacting factors include land, labor, and technology, but the negative intermediary effect of land is the largest. To ensure food security, we should focus on using agricultural land intensively, improving the quality of labor force, and strengthening investment in agricultural technology.

Key words: urbanization, food security, factors allocation, mediating effect, grain supply-demand balance area, China