碳市场合理初始价格区间测算

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.08.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

当前中国碳试点市场价格与市场供求之间存在脱节,碳定价体系未能满足碳市场发展需求。为此,本文基于脱钩理论,运用随机分析方法从企业视角度量碳成本,构建影响企业碳成本的决定方程,并进一步模拟“企业-政府-市场”与初始碳价格之间的联动关系,得到符合中国碳市场发展规律的初始价格波动区间。结果显示：①政府惩罚规模与配额短缺概率是制约控排企业获取碳交易收益的核心,保证碳市场健康发展的前提是平衡“企业-政府-市场”之间关系。②初始碳价格设定与政府期望碳市场达到的减排效率直接相关,当前经济条件下全国统一市场初始碳价格的合理设定区间为[41,52]元/t。③惩罚规模对于初始碳价格设定的解释程度达到97%,惩罚机制是现阶段政府层面引导碳市场健康发展的最优工具。④市场效率与减排目标是长期影响碳价格设定的主要指标,碳市场健康发展的重要前提之一是设定“市场-政府”双向初始价格体系。本文为丰富中国碳市场价格理论、科学地设定初始碳价格提供了理论基础与实证支持。

关键词: 初始碳价格, 控排企业, 碳成本, 价格联动, 价格区间测算

Abstract:

Currently there is a disconnection between carbon price and market supply-and-demand in China’s carbon pilot market and the carbon pricing system has failed to meet the development needs of carbon markets. To address this problem, this study used the stochastic analysis method to measure carbon cost from the perspective of firms, and developed a determinant equation that affects corporate carbon costs based on the decoupling theory. Using this equation, we simulated the linkages between firm-government-market and initial carbon price, thereby obtaining the fluctuation interval of such price that conforms to the pattern of China’s carbon market development. Through empirical tests, we obtained the following results. (1) Government’s penalty cost and the probability of quota shortage both are key factors that restrict emission control firms to obtain carbon trading income, and a premise to ensure the sound development of carbon market is to balance the relation among firms, the government, and the market. (2) The setting of initial carbon price is directly related to the emission reduction efficiency that is expected by the government in the carbon market, and in the current economic environment, the reasonable setting range of initial carbon price in the national unified market is [41, 52] Yuan/t. (3) Penalty cost explains 97% of the setting of initial carbon price, and penalty mechanism is the best tool that can lead to the sound development of carbon markets at the government level currently. (4) Both market efficiency and emission reduction goal are main indicators that affect carbon price setting in the long run, and one important premise for the sound development of carbon market is to set up a two-way initial price system of “market-government.” This article provides theoretical underpinnings as well as empirical support for enriching China’s carbon market price theory and setting the initial carbon price scientifically.

Key words: initial carbon price, emission control firms, carbon cost, price linkage, price interval estimation

宋亚植,刘天森,梁大鹏,王世进. 碳市场合理初始价格区间测算[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(8): 1438-1449.

Yazhi SONG,Tiansen LIU,Dapeng LIANG,Shijin WANG. Reasonable initial price interval calculation of carbon market[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(8): 1438-1449.

图/表 5

表1

初始碳价格设定指标体系及实际数值选取"

指标值	数值	数据来源
碳强度 $γ$	1.000（2018年）	Global Carbon Project^[37]
市场减排效率 $θ$	0.960	程永伟等^[38]
资产投资 $K$ /亿元	645675（2018年）	国家统计局
资本折旧系数 $δ K$ /%	5	中国统计年鉴
平均排放量水平 $E ?$ /亿t	100（2017年）	Global Carbon Project^[39]
生产函数的参数 $α$	0.205	Liao等^[40]
初始碳排放量 $Q 0$	45亿t	汪泽方^[41]

表1

图1

图2

图3

表2

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碳强度水平	0.80	0.82	0.84	0.86	0.88	0.9	0.92	0.94	0.96	0.98
惩罚规模/%	97.54	97.60	97.65	97.71	97.76	97.81	97.85	97.90	97.94	97.98
市场短缺概率/%	2.45	2.40	2.35	2.22	2.24	2.19	2.15	2.10	2.06	2.02