资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (8): 1416-1426.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.03

• 水资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于区间两阶段-部分信息模型的城市水资源优化配置

陈红光1,王中君2,王琼雅2,买书魁2   

  1. 1.东北农业大学水利与土木工程学院,哈尔滨 150030
    2.东北农业大学工程学院,哈尔滨 150030
  • 收稿日期:2018-12-24 修回日期:2019-04-04 出版日期:2019-08-28 发布日期:2019-08-21
  • 作者简介:陈红光,女,辽宁省人,博士,副教授,主要从事水资源优化利用与系统分析研究。E-mail: chg218@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(LC2015015);哈尔滨市应用技术研究与开发(青年后备人才)项目(2014RFQXJ122)

An interval-parameter two-stage partial information programming model for optimal urban water resource planning

Hongguang CHEN1,Zhongjun WANG2,Qiongya WANG2,Shukui MAI2   

  1. 1.School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
    2.College of Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China
  • Received:2018-12-24 Revised:2019-04-04 Online:2019-08-28 Published:2019-08-21

摘要:

本文将区间两阶段随机规划方法与线性部分信息理论结合构建多水源、多用户、多目标的区间两阶段-部分信息模型,解决因传统配水模型忽视城市降雨-径流的不确定性而导致配水结果与实际情况存在差异的问题。将该模型应用于哈尔滨市地表水、地下水联合调度中,运用线性部分信息理论分析降雨-径流的不确定性,得到4种流量水平概率分布情景。引入交互式算法求解模型,得出城市用水用户在不同情景下的缺水量、最优配置水量及城市配水系统整体收益,并将配置结果与两阶段随机规划模型结果对比。结果表明:与传统配水模型相比,区间两阶段-部分信息模型克服了降雨-径流等不确定性因素对配水系统收益的影响,能有效平衡经济效益和缺水惩罚风险。通过该模型分析哈尔滨市水资源配置得到4种流量水平分布情景,当发生低流量水平的概率增大时,缺水风险增加,得到保守的配水方案,系统经济利益降低;发生中、高流量水平的概率增大时,城市可用水量增加,得到积极的配水方案,系统经济利益增加。该模型得到的优化配置方案以区间形式给出,更真实地反映实际城市水资源管理情况,并为管理者提供决策空间。

关键词: 城市水资源, 优化配置, 不确定性分析, 区间两阶段随机规划, 线性部分信息理论, 降雨-径流, 哈尔滨市

Abstract:

In this paper, the interval two-stage stochastic programming method (ITSP) and the linear partial information (LPI) theory are combined to construct an interval-parameter two-stage partial information model (ITPM) with multi-source, multi-user and multi-objective. ITPM model can solve the problem that the traditional model ignores the uncertainty of urban rainfall-runoff which could lead to the discrepancy between the results of water distribution and the actual situation. The model was applied to the joint operation of surface water and groundwater in Harbin. Uncertainty of rainfall-runoff was analyzed by linear partial information theory. Four scenarios of flow level's probability distribution of discharge were obtained. Interval number and random number represent other uncertainties. An interactive algorithm was introduced to solve the model, and water shortage, optimal allocation, and overall benefits of urban water distribution system under different scenarios for urban water users were obtained. The allocation results were compared with those of the two-stage stochastic programming model. The results show that compared with the traditional water distribution model, the interval-parameter two-stage partial information model (ITPM) overcomes the impact of uncertainties such as rainfall-runoff on the benefits of water distribution system. ITPM model can effectively balance the economic benefits and the penalty risk of water shortage. Through ITPM model, four kinds of flow level distribution scenarios are obtained for water resources allocation in Harbin. When the probability of low flow level increases, the risk of water shortage increases, conservative water distribution schemes are obtained, and the economic benefits of the system decrease. When the probability of medium and high flow level increases, the available water quantity increases and gets positive water distribution schemes. In the same time, the economic benefits of the system increased. The optimal allocation schemes obtained by ITPM model is given in the form of intervals, which can more truly reflect the actual situation of urban water resources management and provide decision-making space for managers.

Key words: urban water resource, optimal allocation, uncertainty analysis, interval two-stage stochastic programming, linear partial information theory, rainfall-runoff, Harbin