资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (8): 1400-1415.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.02
收稿日期:
2018-05-28
修回日期:
2019-05-18
出版日期:
2019-08-28
发布日期:
2019-08-21
通讯作者:
穆月英
作者简介:
张哲晰,女,吉林省吉林市人,博士,研究方向为农业经济理论与政策。E-mail: cauzzx1991@cau.edu.cn
基金资助:
Zhexi ZHANG1,2,Yueying MU1(),Lingling HOU3,Xin YANG1
Received:
2018-05-28
Revised:
2019-05-18
Online:
2019-08-28
Published:
2019-08-21
Contact:
Yueying MU
摘要:
水资源是关系农村社会经济发展、农民增收的重要因素。本文从协调政府与农民关于增效与增收的目标出发,以2017年中国环渤海设施蔬菜主产地蔬菜专业村357个蔬菜种植户调研数据为例,运用联立方程组模型及条件混合过程(CMP)、倾向得分匹配方法(PSM)与工具变量分位数(IVQR)方法,对滴灌技术推广的约束因素与增效增收能力进行分析,探索促进中国农业可持续发展的路径。研究结果表明:①水资源稀缺程度较高的蔬菜主产地,种植年限较短,但家庭资本充裕且对节水知识了解程度越高的蔬菜种植户更倾向于采用滴灌技术;②滴灌技术具有明显的增效增收作用,蔬菜种植户采用滴灌技术后,每吨灌溉水产出可增加17.16 kg蔬菜,增收45.90 元,具有推广的长效动力;③滴灌技术的产出与经济效应存在“马太效应”,对于生产条件好的农户而言,滴灌技术的产出与经济效应更加明显;④技术供给层面的灌溉制度设计不健全、设备工程设计与质量较差、培训与售后服务不足,农户技术应用层面的专业知识与技术缺乏、与现代农业对接能力弱,以及政府层面的补贴不够科学、到位是影响农户滴灌技术采用积极性的重要因素,需要加以注意,此外,灌溉水价的适当提高,将有助于加快田间节水技术的推广。
张哲晰,穆月英,侯玲玲,杨鑫. 环渤海地区滴灌的资源与经济效应——政府与农户目标一致性检验[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(8): 1400-1415.
Zhexi ZHANG,Yueying MU,Lingling HOU,Xin YANG. Resource and economic effects of drip irrigation in the Bohai Rim area: Consistency of goals of the government and farmers[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(8): 1400-1415.
表2
变量说明及描述统计(均值)"
变量类型 | 变量名称 | 参数表示 | 单位 | 滴灌组 | 非滴灌组 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
灌溉水投入产出情况 | 灌溉水量 | Water | t | 708.30 | 924.00 |
灌溉水生产率 | WP | kg/t | 45.00 | 27.20 | |
灌溉水净利润 | r | 元/t | 94.89 | 39.53 | |
生产投入 | 种苗投入 | Seed | 元/t | 9.90 | 4.24 |
农膜投入 | Nm | 元/t | 6.71 | 3.85 | |
农药投入 | Pes | 元/t | 8.05 | 2.51 | |
肥料投入 | Tfer | 元/t | 16.84 | 9.90 | |
化肥投入 | Fer | 元 | 2064.08 | 2388.28 | |
有机肥投入 | Ofer | 元 | 1575.15 | 1552.14 | |
户主及农户家庭条件 | 性别 | Gen | 0=女;1=男 | 0.93 | 0.92 |
年龄 | Age | 岁 | 51.25 | 52.20 | |
蔬菜种植年限 | Vyear | 年 | 16.28 | 18.54 | |
受教育年限 | Edu | 年 | 8.57 | 8.58 | |
风险态度 | Ati | — | 2.01 | 1.92 | |
滴灌技术了解程度 | Know | — | 4.46 | 4.14 | |
水资源信息技术来源 | Chan | — | 1.14 | 1.11 | |
交流频率 | Comm | — | 3.45 | 3.53 | |
家庭劳动力数 | Lab | 人 | 2.02 | 2.00 | |
家庭年收入 | Tinc | 万元 | 7.48 | 6.05 | |
温室大棚数 | Num | 个 | 2.58 | 2.84 | |
专业化生产 | Spe | % | 85.14 | 85.25 | |
自然、市场 | 水稀缺度 | Rare | — | 2.72 | 2.42 |
与社会环境 | 灌溉水价 | Wprice | 元/度 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
蔬菜价格 | P | 元/kg | 0.83 | 0.67 | |
受政府补贴农户比例 | Sub | % | 3.61 | 6.80 | |
产业集聚程度 | Agg | % | 41.60 | 37.71 |
表3
基于CMP/OLS方法的联立方程组参数估计结果"
方程名称 | 变量名称 | CMP方法 | OLS方法 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
回归系数 | 标准误 | 回归系数 | 标准误 | |||
农户滴灌技术 采用方程 (1) | Rare | 0.095* | 0.049 | 0.097** | 0.049 | |
Gen | 0.157 | 0.256 | 0.146 | 0.257 | ||
Age | 0.002 | 0.009 | 0.002 | 0.009 | ||
Vyear | -0.015* | 0.009 | -0.015* | 0.009 | ||
Edu | -0.006 | 0.032 | -0.007 | 0.032 | ||
Ati | 0.071 | 0.091 | 0.055 | 0.096 | ||
Know | 0.209*** | 0.068 | 0.198*** | 0.071 | ||
Chan | 0.011 | 0.162 | 0.024 | 0.170 | ||
Lab | -0.011 | 0.107 | 0.001 | 0.112 | ||
Tinc | 3.68E-06** | 1.65E-06 | 4.21E-06** | 1.68E-06 | ||
Num | -0.063* | 0.037 | -0.072* | 0.038 | ||
Sub | -0.442 | 0.315 | -0.333 | 0.323 | ||
Agg | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.003 | ||
_cons | -1.463** | 0.741 | -1.502** | 0.745 | ||
灌溉水 生产率方程 (2) | Drip | 17.158* | 9.701 | 16.188*** | 5.335 | |
Rare | 1.685 | 2.058 | 2.962 | 1.879 | ||
Gen | 11.339 | 10.011 | 11.790 | 9.920 | ||
Age | -0.287 | 0.335 | -0.323 | 0.328 | ||
Vyear | 0.036 | 0.419 | -0.092 | 0.324 | ||
Edu | 1.444 | 1.221 | 1.184 | 1.203 | ||
Comm | 5.142** | 2.142 | 5.261*** | 2.044 | ||
Fer | -0.002* | 0.001 | -0.002* | 0.001 | ||
Ofer | 0.0002 | 0.002 | 0.0005 | 0.002 | ||
Spe | 27.218** | 12.890 | 21.548* | 13.002 | ||
_cons | -12.053 | 25.602 | -15.859 | 25.698 | ||
灌溉水 净收益方程 (3) | WP | 2.675*** | 0.346 | 2.466*** | 0.083 | |
P | 73.834*** | 6.440 | 74.411*** | 6.479 | ||
Wprice | -30.690*** | 9.000 | -30.494*** | 9.104 | ||
Seed | 1.671*** | 0.272 | 1.691*** | 0.274 | ||
Tfer | -0.103 | 0.249 | -0.132 | 0.246 | ||
Nm | -3.915*** | 0.708 | -3.892*** | 0.715 | ||
Pes | -0.019 | 0.105 | -0.024 | 0.106 | ||
_cons | -54.048*** | 14.930 | -47.049*** | 8.778 | ||
独立性检验 | /atanhrho_12 | -0.167 | 0.212 | |||
/atanhrho_13 | 0.011 | 0.096 | ||||
/atanhrho_23 | -0.188 | 0.275 |
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