资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (8): 1387-1439.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.08.01

• 水资源 •    下一篇

干旱灾害与农田灌溉对小麦生产技术效率的影响

栾健,韩一军()   

  1. 中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2019-03-12 修回日期:2019-05-28 出版日期:2019-08-25 发布日期:2019-08-21
  • 通讯作者: 韩一军 E-mail:hyjcau@126.com
  • 作者简介:栾健,男,山东烟台人,博士生,研究方向为农业经济理论与政策。E-mail: luanjian110550@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目(17AJY019)

Impacts of drought disasters and farmland irrigation on wheat production technical efficiency

Jian LUAN,Yijun HAN()   

  1. College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2019-03-12 Revised:2019-05-28 Online:2019-08-25 Published:2019-08-21
  • Contact: Yijun HAN E-mail:hyjcau@126.com

摘要:

干旱灾害对小麦稳产增产影响很大。明晰不同农田灌溉水平下旱灾对小麦生产技术效率的影响具有重要意义。本文基于15个小麦主产省区1991—2016年面板数据,运用随机前沿函数分析法和面板门槛回归模型,探讨了小麦生产技术效率的时空演变趋势、旱灾对小麦生产技术效率影响的门槛效应以及农田水利设施减灾能力的时空异质性,主要结论如下:①小麦生产技术效率总体呈现波动提升趋势,年均增长0.98%,东、中、西部地区小麦生产技术效率具有明显的时序变化趋同性和空间分布异质性,东部地区技术效率水平最高,主导着生产前沿面移动,中、西部地区技术效率提升潜力巨大;②随着有效灌溉率的提升,旱灾对小麦生产技术效率影响具有双重门槛效应,其负向影响随着有效灌溉率的提升而呈现阶梯型下降;③1991—2016年间,各小麦主产省农田水利设施减灾能力明显提升,农田水利设施减灾能力相对薄弱的地区多集中于甘肃、陕西、四川和云南等西部省份。

关键词: 旱灾, 农田灌溉, 小麦生产, 技术效率, 随机前沿函数, 面板门槛回归模型

Abstract:

Drought disasters cause great reduction of wheat yield. It is of vital importance to clarify the impact of drought disasters on wheat production technical efficiency under different levels of farmland irrigation. Based on panel data of 15 major wheat producing provinces of China from 1991 to 2016, stochastic frontier analysis and panel threshold regression model were used in this study to explore the temporal and spatial change of wheat production technical efficiency and the threshold effect of drought disasters on wheat production technical efficiency, as well as temporal and spatial heterogeneity of drought disaster mitigation capacities of farmland irrigation infrastructure. The results are as follows: (1) There is an overall increasing trend with an average annual growth rate of 0.98% of wheat production technical efficiency, which also shows obvious temporal variation convergence and spatial heterogeneity in different regions. Eastern China has the highest level of wheat production technical efficiency, leading the movement of production frontiers. There is a large potential for the central and western regions to improve wheat production technical efficiency. (2) As effective irrigation rate increases, drought disasters show a double threshold effect on wheat production technical efficiency. The negative impact of droughts decreases with the increase of effective irrigation rate. (3) Disaster mitigation capacities of farmland irrigation infrastructure have been significantly improved from 1991 to 2016, while there are still some provinces, such as Gansu, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Yunnan, whose disaster mitigation capacities are relatively weak. Therefore, the key to alleviating constrains of drought disasters and improving the quality and efficiency of wheat production is to strengthen farmland irrigation investments according to local circumstances to increase effective irrigation rate.

Key words: drought disasters, farmland irrigation, wheat production, technical efficiency, stochastic frontier function, panel threshold regression model