1980—2016年北京市食物消费的土地需求

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.07.15

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

社会经济发展和居民食物消费对土地需求之间的矛盾,已成为中国可持续发展亟待解决的关键问题,也是当今社会关注的热点问题之一。然而,目前对城市尺度食物消费的土地需求研究仍存在不足。本文利用CPI指数法,估算了北京市城乡居民1980—2016年的食物消费情况,揭示了居民食物消费结构改变对土地需求的演变特征,并探讨了未来不同消费模式下的土地需求情况,以期为实现居民的可持续消费提供参考,从而更好地解决社会经济发展和居民食物消费对土地需求之间的矛盾。结果表明：北京市食物消费结构已经由“粮食主导”的消费模式逐渐变为多元化的消费模式,且城乡之间存在明显差异;1980—2016年,北京市居民人均食物消费的土地需求量呈“U”型的变化特征,其中粮食消费的土地需求不断减少,而蔬果和动物性食物的土地需求不断增加;在2016年,北京市居民人均食物消费的土地需求量达到了1227.04 m²/人,使得北京市居民消费的土地需求总量达到了266.62万hm²,其中动物性食物消费占70.36%,城市居民食物消费占95%以上;在2016年,北京市居民食物消费的土地需求压力达到了14。健康合理的食物消费结构不仅有利于身体健康,也能够缓解食物消费对土地资源的压力;在健康饮食情景下,北京市每年居民食物消费最多可节约95.20~153.32万hm²的土地面积,相当于北京市现有耕地和果园面积的5~8倍。因此,通过合理的饮食结构调整对解决社会经济发展和居民食物消费对土地需求之间的矛盾具有重要的意义。

关键词: 食物消费, 土地需求, 土地压力, CPI指数法, 粮食安全, 饮食结构

Abstract:

The contradiction between socioeconomic development and land demands for food consumption has become one of the key issues for sustainable development. However, there is a lack of studies on land demands for food consumption at the urban level. Therefore, this study used the CPI index method to estimate food consumption of urban and rural residents in Beijing during 1980-2016. Based on the concept of virtual land, it revealed land demands as well as pressures due to human dietary change. We also explored land demands for food consumption under different scenarios in the future. Our results are as follows: human food consumption in Beijing has changed to more vegetables, fruits, and livestock products, and there are obvious differences in food consumption of urban and rural residents. Land demands for food consumption presented a U-shaped trend during this period. The per capita land demand for meat, eggs and milk, vegetables, and fruits increased significantly, while land demands for cereals have been decreasing. In 2016, land demands per capita for food consumption amounted to 1227.04 m²/a, resulting in the total land demands of 266.62×10⁴ hm², with animal product consumption accounting for 70.36% and urban consumption accounting for more than 95%; and the pressure index for land demands reached 14. With a healthier diet, it could save 95.20×10⁴~153.32×10⁴ hm² of land, equivalent to 5~8 times of present arable land area in Beijing. Thus, to some extent, a healthy food dietary structure could also alleviate the pressure of land demands for human food consumption.

Key words: food consumption, land demands, land pressure, CPI index method, food security, dietary structure

董佳静, 赵旸, 王重阳, 肖潇, 张丹, 刘立涛, 刘晓洁, 张亚丽, 伦飞. 1980—2016年北京市食物消费的土地需求[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(7): 1350-1358.

Jiajing DONG, Yang ZHAO, Chongyang WANG, Xiao XIAO, Dan ZHANG, Litao LIU, Xiaojie LIU, Yali ZHANG, Fei LUN. Land demands for food consumption in Beijing during 1980-2016[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(7): 1350-1358.

图/表 6

图1

图2

图3

图4

表1

表2

参考文献 42

[1]	陈源源, 吕昌河, 尚凯丽. 食物安全的内涵、指标与评价方法综述[J]. 中国农学通报, 2017, 33(22): 158-164.
	[Chen Y Y, Lv C H, Shang K L.A review on concept, indicators and evaluation methods of food security[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2017, 33(22): 158-164.]
[2]	WFP, FAO, IFAD. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2015[R]. Rome: FAO, 2015.
[3]	欧胜彬, 苏雪华. 粮食安全:耕地质量保护是关键[J]. 农业经济, 2012, (8): 54-56.
	[Ou S B, Su X H.Cultivated land quality protection is the key to food security[J]. Agricultural Economy, 2012, (8): 54-56.]
[4]	Alexander P, Rounsevell A, Dislich C, et al.Drivers for global agricultural land use change: The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy[J]. Global Environment Change, 2015, 35: 138-147.
[5]	Eshel G, Shepon A, Makov T, et al.Land, irrigation water, greenhouse gas, and reactive nitrogen burdens of meat, eggs, and dairy production in the United States[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014, 111(33): 11996-12001.
[6]	Audsley E, Angus A, Chatterton J, et al.The Effect of Changes in UK Food Consumption on Land Requirements and Greenhouse Gas Emissions[R]. Bedford: A Report Prepared for the United Kingdom’s Committee on Climate Change, 2010.
[7]	刘丹, 巩前文, 杨文杰. 改革开放40年来中国耕地保护政策演变及优化路径[J]. 中国农村经济, 2018, (12): 37-51.
	[Liu D, Gong Q W, Yang W J.The evolution of farmland protection policy and optimization path from 1978 to 2018[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2018, (12): 37-51.]
[8]	聂英. 中国粮食安全的耕地贡献分析[J]. 经济学家, 2015, (1): 83-93.
	[Nie Y.Analysis of cultivated land contribution to food security in China[J]. Economist, 2015, (1): 83-93.]
[9]	Fan M, Shen J, Yuan L, et al.Improving crop productivity and resource use efficiency to ensure food security and environmental quality in China[J]. Journal of Experimental Botany, 2012, 63(1): 13-24.
[10]	付恭华, 鄢帮有. 中国未来的粮食安全与生态可持续性问题研究: 基于粮食生产过程生态足迹的实证分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2013, 22(12): 1550-1556.
	[Fu G H, Yan B Y.Food security and ecological sustainability in China: An empirical analysis based on the ecological footprint of food production[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2013, 22(12): 1550-1556.]
[11]	蔡雪雄, 李倩. 中国粮食主销区的粮食生产安全问题研究[J]. 亚太经济, 2018, (5): 130-136.
	[Cai X X, Li Q.Research on food production safety in the main grain area of China[J]. Asia-pacific Economic Review, 2018, (5): 130-136.]
[12]	Alexander P, Brown C, Arneth A, et al.Human appropriation of land for food: The role of diet[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2016, 41: 88-98.
[13]	刘春霞, 王芳. 基于居民食物消费模式的中国耕地需求动态变化分析[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2018, 26(8): 1227-1235.
	[Liu C X, Wang F.Dynamic changes in arable land requirements for food consumption in China[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2018, 26(8): 1227-1235.]
[14]	赵姚阳, 蒋琳琳, 王洁. 居民膳食结构变化对中国食物生产用地需求的影响研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(3): 54-60.
	[Zhao Y Y, Jiang L L, Wang J.Study of the effect of residents’ dietary pattern change to the land requirements for food[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(3): 54-60.]
[15]	曹淑艳, 谢高地. 城镇居民食物消费的生态足迹及生态文明程度评价[J]. 自然资源学报, 2016, 31(7): 1073-1085.
	[Cao S Y, Xie G D.Footprint and degree of ecological civilization assessment of Chinese urban food consumption[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(7): 1073-1085.]
[16]	Gerbens-Leenes P W, Nonhebel S, Cleveland C J. Consumption patterns and their effects on land required for food[J]. Ecological Economics, 2002, 42(1): 185-199.
[17]	Kastner T, Rivas M J I, Koch W, et al. Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2012, 109(18): 6868-6872.
[18]	张少春, 闵师, 马瑞. 城市化、食物消费转型及其生态环境影响[J]. 城市发展研究, 2018, 25(3): 13-20.
	[Zhang S C, Min S, Ma R.Urbanization, food consumption transformation and its impact on ecological environment[J]. Urban Development Studies, 2018, 25(3): 13-20.]
[19]	许月卿, 吴艳芳, 张衍毓, 等. 从食物消费需求角度谈中国土地利用战略[J]. 中国土地科学, 2011, 25(6): 24-29.
	[Xu Y Q, Wu Y F, Zhang Y Y, et al.Study on land use strategies in China from the viewpoint of food consumption[J]. China Land Science, 2011, 25(6): 24-29.]
[20]	孙廷艳, 唐增, 尚振艳. 庆阳市食物消费结构与土地资源需求[J]. 草业科学, 2015, 32(9): 1518-1523.
	[Sun T Y, Tang Z, Shang Z Y.The requirements for land resources based on food consumption patterns: A case study in Qingyang[J]. Pratacultural Science, 2015, 32(9): 1518-1523.]
[21]	封志明. 中国未来人口发展的粮食安全与耕地保障[J]. 人口研究, 2007, 31(2): 15-29.
	[Feng Z M.Future food security and arable land guarantee for population development in China[J]. Population Research, 2007, 31(2): 15-29.]
[22]	刘宁. 人口结构、食物消费差异对中国粮食需求的影响[J]. 兰州学刊, 2015, (11): 164-170.
	[Liu N.The impact of population structure and food consumption differences on food demand of China[J]. Lanzhou Academic Journal, 2015, (11): 164-170.]
[23]	田甜, 唐增, 孙廷艳. 中国不同地区食物消费对土地资源需求的影响研究[J]. 草业学报, 2017, 26(2): 53-60.
	[Tian T, Tang Z, Sun T Y.Land requirements for food in different regions of China[J]. Acta Prataculturae Sinica, 2017, 26(2): 53-60.]
[24]	高利伟, 徐增让, 成升魁, 等. 农村居民食物消费结构对耕地需求的影响: 以西藏“一江两河”流域为例[J]. 自然资源学报, 2017, 32(1): 12-25.
	[Gao L W, Xu Z R, Cheng S K, et al.Arable land requirements related food consumption pattern: A case study in Lhasa, Xigaze and Shannan region of rural Tibet[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(1): 12-25.]
[25]	熊靓, 王东阳. 居民食物消费特征及影响因素分析: 基于全国20省居民食物消费调研[J]. 中国食物与营养, 2017, 23(3): 49-53.
	[Xiong L, Wang D Y.Residents’ food consumption characteristics and influencing factors: Based on food consumption investigation in 20 provinces of China[J]. Food and Nutrition in China, 2017, 23(3): 49-53.]
[26]	刘璐璐, 宋戈, 黄善林, 等. 基于粮食安全的黑龙江省耕地压力时空特征分析[J]. 东北师大学报(自然科学版), 2018, 50(1): 138-143.
	[Liu L L, Song G, Huang S L, et al.Analysis on the spatial-temporal characteristics of cultivated land pressure in Heilongjiang Province based on food security[J]. Journal of Northeast Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2018, 50(1): 138-143.]
[27]	孙强, 蔡运龙, 王乐. 北京耕地流失的时空特征与驱动机制[J]. 资源科学, 2007, 29(4): 158-163.
	[Sun Q, Cai Y L, Wang L.Temporal spatial processes of farmland conversion and its driving mechanisms in Beijing[J]. Resources Science, 2007, 29(4): 158-163.]
[28]	罗晓雷. 北京市新型城镇化建设与耕地保护工作问题探讨[J]. 南方农业, 2018, 12(10): 55-57.
	[Luo X F.On new-type urbanization and farmland protection in Beijing[J]. South China Agriculture, 2018, 12(10): 55-57.]
[29]	张丹, 伦飞, 成升魁, 等. 不同规模餐馆食物浪费及其氮足迹: 以北京市为例[J]. 生态学报, 2017, 37(5): 1699-1708.
	[Zhang D, Lun F, Cheng S K, et al.The nitrogen footprint of different scales of restaurant food waste: A Beijing case study[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2017, 37(5): 1699-1708.]
[30]	Cai J M, Guo H, Larissa M, et al.Urban food supply under constrained land resources in Beijing: Potential and optimization[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2012, 3(3): 269-277.
[31]	裴厦, 刘春兰, 谢高地, 等. 北京与津冀之间隐性土地资源流动研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2016, 26(1): 97-104.
	[Pei S, Liu C L, Xie G D, et al.Study on inter-regional transfer of embodied land resources between Beijing and Tianjin-Hebei[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2016, 26(1): 97-104.]
[32]	刘菁华, 李伟峰, 周伟奇, 等. 权衡城市扩张、耕地保护与生态效益的京津冀城市群土地利用优化配置情景分析[J]. 生态学报, 2018, 38(12): 4341-4350.
	[Liu J H, Li W F, Zhou W Q, et al.Scenario simulation balancing multiple objectives for optimal land use allocation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megaregion[J]. Acta Ecologoca Sinica, 2018, 38(12): 4341-4350.]
[33]	北京市统计局. 北京统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1980-2016.
	[Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics. Beijing Statistical Yearbook[M]. Beijing: China Statistical Publishing House, 1980-2016.]
[34]	陈文辉, 谢高地, 张昌顺, 等. 北京市消耗食物生态足迹距离[J]. 生态学报, 2016, 36(4): 904-914.
	[Chen W H, Xie G D, Zhang C S, et al.The ecological footprint distance of food consumed in Beijing[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(4): 904-914.]
[35]	中国营养学会. 中国居民膳食指南(2016)[M]. 北京: 人民卫生出版社, 2016.
	[Chinese Society of Nutrition. Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents (2016) [M]. Beijing: People’s Medical Publishing House, 2016.]
[36]	宋佩锋. 人口预测方法比较研究[D]. 合肥: 安徽大学, 2013.
	[Song P F.A Comparative Study on the Methods of Population Projection[D]. Hefei: Anhui University, 2013.]
[37]	唐华俊, 李哲敏. 基于中国居民平衡膳食模式的人均粮食需求量研究[J]. 中国农业科学, 2012, 45(11): 2315-2327.
	[Tang H J, Li Z M.Study on per capita grain demand based on Chinese reasonable dietary pattern[J]. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(11): 2315-2327.]
[38]	李艳华, 张晓梅, 李炳军. 我国饲料用粮的系统动力学预测建模[J]. 河南科学, 2012, 30(1): 127-130.
	[Li Y H, Zhang X M, Li B J.A forecasting model for China’s feed grain demand based on system dynamics approach[J]. Henan Science, 2012, 30(1): 127-130.]
[39]	李效顺, 蒋冬梅, 卞正富. 基于粮食安全视角的中国耕地资源盈亏测算[J]. 资源科学, 2014, 36(10): 2057-2065.
	[Li X S, Jiang D M, Bian Z F.The surplus and deficit measurement of the cultivated land in China in the view of food security[J]. Resources Science, 2014, 36(10): 2057-2065.]
[40]	叶宏亮. 基于国内外耕地资源有效供给的中国粮食安全研究[D]. 杭州: 浙江大学, 2013.
	[Ye H L.The Research of China’s Food Security Based on Effective Supply of Cultivated Land Resources[D]. Hangzhou: Zhejiang University, 2013.]
[41]	杨旺明, 栾一博, 杨陈, 等. 中国饮食所需耕地面积长时间尺度变化研究[J]. 资源科学, 2013, 35(5): 901-909.
	[Yang W M, Luan Y B, Yang C, et al.Changes in the land requirements for food from 1961 to 2007 in China[J]. Resources Science, 2013, 35(5): 901-909.]
[42]	刘兵. 基于农户与消费者利益的农产品供应链整合研究[D]. 沈阳: 沈阳农业大学, 2013.
	[Liu B.Study on Agricultural Products Supply Chain Integration Based in the Interests of the Peasants and Consumers: Fresh Fruits and Vegetables in China as an Example[D]. Shenyang: Shenyang Agricultural University, 2013.]

	目前情景下的土地需求量	膳食宝塔建议下的土地需求量
粮食类	18.1	35.9~57.4
蔬菜	32.9	6.6~10.9
水果	28.1	11.2~19.6
肉类	154.5	19.8~37.1
蛋类	19.0	15.5~19.4
奶及奶制品	8.3	21.5
水产品	5.9	2.9~5.4
总体	266.62	113.3~171.4

	2030年		2050年
	∆₁	∆₂	∆₁	∆₂
粮食	1.06	28.78	1.74	30.45
蔬菜	1.92	-26.42	3.16	-26.19
水果	1.64	-7.26	2.7	-6.51
肉类	9.03	-145.28	14.86	-144.95
蛋类	1.11	-3.09	1.83	-2.52
奶及奶制品	0.48	13.39	0.8	14.17
水产品	0.34	-2.26	0.56	-2.13
耕地	13.94	-134.88	22.95	-131.18
压力值	1.04	-10	1.7	-9.73
果园	1.64	-7.26	2.7	-6.51
压力值	0.31	-1.38	0.51	-1.25