中国镍资源供应安全评价与对策研究

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.07.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

镍是中国紧缺的矿产资源。近年来,由于镍在不锈钢、新能源电池中的大量使用,中国镍资源面临严峻的供应形势。为深入研究中国镍资源的供应安全问题,本文从镍资源存量状况、资源供需状况、资源开发状况、国际产销状况、国际市场价格状况5个维度构建中国镍资源供应安全评价指标体系,首先运用熵值法计算2000—2016年中国镍资源各年的供应安全综合得分,然后运用雷达法分析影响2016年中国镍资源供应安全的主要因素。结果显示：2000—2016年中国镍资源供应安全综合得分持续下降,供应风险不断增加;储量下降、消费量增加、地质勘查投入减少、对国外资源依赖较大、主要进口国政策变化较大等因素是影响中国镍资源供应安全的主要因素。根据评价结果,本文提出以下安全对策：加大镍矿勘探投入,提高镍资源开发水平;提高二次回收率,加强不锈钢领域节镍技术研发;开拓国外镍矿资源市场。这些措施将有助于提高中国镍资源的供应安全保障水平。

关键词: 镍资源, 供应安全, 熵值法, 雷达法, 安全对策, 中国

Abstract:

Nickel is a scarce mineral resource in China. In recent years, China’s nickel resources are facing a severe supply situation due to the extensive use of nickel in stainless steel and new energy batteries. In order to study the supply security of China’s nickel resources, an evaluation index system for the supply security of nickel resources in China from domestic safety sources and foreign safety sources is constructed in the paper. The two security sources include five security categories: resource stock, resource supply and demand, resource development, international production and marketing, and international market price. There are one or two safety indicators in each security category, and there are eight safety indicators in total. According to the index system, the comprehensive score of China’s nickel resources supply security from 2000 to 2016 is calculated by using the entropy method, and then the radar method is used to try to find out the main factors affecting the safety of China’s nickel resources supply in 2016. The evaluation results show that the comprehensive score of China’s nickel resources supply security continued to decline and the supply risk continued to increase in 2000-2016. In 2016, factors affecting supply safety were mainly reduced reserves, increased consumption, great dependence on foreign resources, reduced investment in exploration, great policy changes in major importing countries, and the concentration of world nickel production. According to the results of the evaluation, a number of security measures were put forward: increasing the investment in exploration, improving the development level, improving the two recovery rates, strengthening the research and development of nickel resource saving technology in the stainless steel industry, and developing a foreign market of nickel resources. The targeted policy recommendations will help to improve the safety level of nickel supply in China in the future.

Key words: nickel resources, supply safety, entropy method, radar chart, security measures, China

马玉芳, 沙景华, 闫晶晶, 刘全文, 范松梅, 何更宇, 周平. 中国镍资源供应安全评价与对策研究[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(7): 1317-1328.

Yufang MA, Jinghua SHA, Jingjing YAN, Quanwen LIU, Songmei FAN, Gengyu HE, Ping ZHOU. Safety assessment and countermeasures of nickel resource supply in China[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(7): 1317-1328.

图/表 13

表1

中国镍资源供应安全评价指标体系"

安全源	安全类别	安全指标	计算公式
国内资源供应安全	资源存量状况	储量占世界总储量的比重	中国储量/世界储量
	资源存量状况	储消比	查明资源储量/消费量
	资源供需状况	消费量占世界总消费量的比重	中国消费量/世界消费量
	资源供需状况	对外依存度	中国镍矿砂及精矿净进口量/中国镍资源消费量
	资源开发状况	地质勘查投入增长率	(当期地质勘查投入-前期地质勘查投入)/当期地质勘查投入
国外资源供应安全	国际产销状况	进口国风险	$∑ (前十大中国镍矿砂及精矿进口国各国进口量 / 进口总量) 2 × 对应国家的风险指数$
	国际产销状况	生产国集中度	$∑ (前四大矿山镍生产国各国产量 / 世界矿山镍产量) 2$
	国际市场价格状况	国际市场价格波动率	\|(当期伦敦金属交易所（LME）镍年均价格-前期LME镍年均价格)/当期LME镍年均价格\|

表1

表2

表3

图1

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图10

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年份	储量占世界总储量的比重	储消比	消费量占世界总消费量的比重	对外依存度	地质勘查投入增长率	进口国风险	生产国集中度	国际市场价格波动率
2000	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.00	1.00	0.25	0.36
2001	0.90	0.63	0.95	0.66	1.00	0.98	0.00	0.56
2002	0.05	0.63	0.96	0.63	0.09	0.90	0.13	0.85
2003	0.05	0.37	0.88	0.45	0.08	0.95	0.27	0.38
2004	0.05	0.31	0.87	0.61	0.89	0.82	0.34	0.35
2005	0.04	0.22	0.80	0.37	1.00	0.68	0.42	0.98
2006	0.02	0.18	0.75	0.36	0.75	0.10	0.53	0.00
2007	0.00	0.11	0.61	0.12	0.68	0.56	0.61	0.19
2008	0.00	0.10	0.59	0.18	0.35	0.51	0.42	0.36
2009	0.50	0.04	0.24	0.09	0.26	0.50	0.63	0.57
2010	0.46	0.07	0.41	0.08	0.30	0.48	0.76	0.27
2011	0.51	0.02	0.25	0.02	0.27	0.48	0.75	1.00
2012	0.52	0.01	0.17	0.03	0.26	0.49	0.77	0.69
2013	0.45	0.00	0.08	0.07	0.26	0.49	0.72	0.84
2014	0.47	0.02	0.19	0.00	0.26	0.37	0.74	0.88
2015	0.34	0.01	0.09	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.81	0.60
2016	0.49	0.00	0.00	0.08	0.13	0.01	1.00	0.76