基于Logistic-ISM模型的农户有机肥施用行为影响因素及层次结构分解

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.06.11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

有机肥施用对中国农业绿色、可持续发展具有重要作用,但目前在农业生产上,尤其是稻、麦等大田作物生产上施用率却较低。农户作为农业生产的主体,拥有肥料施用的决策权,明确稻麦轮作区农户有机肥施用行为及关键影响因素对促进有机肥在大田作物的施用有重要意义。本文基于江苏省稻麦轮作区4县（区）392户农户调查数据,采用Logistic模型与解释结构模型（ISM）,分析了农户在稻麦轮作农田施用有机肥的影响因素及其层次结构。结果表明：农户的受教育程度、对有机肥的了解程度、对长期大量低效施用化肥造成环境污染的认识、购买肥料时考虑对土壤无害、饲养家禽及农业部门针对农业施肥技术进行指导等因素对农户有机肥施用行为有正向影响,购买肥料时考虑价格和省工对农户有机肥施用行为有负向影响。在此基础上,对8个因素进行深层分析,形成了“一路径,三驱动”的层次结构,并提出了相应的有机肥推广政策建议。

关键词: 稻麦轮作, 农户行为, 有机肥施用, 影响因素, Logistic-ISM, 江苏省

Abstract:

Organic fertilizer application is beneficial for agricultural green development. However, the rate of application in agricultural production is still very low, especially for rice and wheat production. As rice and wheat are the main crops of agricultural production, it is significance to study farmers’ behavior of organic fertilizer application and the key influencing factors for promoting the application of organic fertilizer in rice and wheat croplands. This study was conducted based on a questionnaire survey of 392 farmers from rice-wheat rotation cropland of Jiangsu Province. We analyzed the influencing factors and their relationships by using a Logistic model and interpretive structural modeling (ISM). The results show that there were eight main influencing factors. Higher educational level, understanding of organic fertilizer, understanding of environmental pollution caused by excessive chemical fertilizer application, consideration of damage to soil when purchasing fertilizer, raising poultry, and guidance of agricultural technology department of the government had positive effects on farmers' organic fertilizer application while higher sensitivity to price of fertilizer and labor saving had a negative effect on organic fertilizer application. By an in-depth analysis, the influencing factors formed a “one path, three driving factors” structure. Based on these results, several suggestions were put forward to promote the application of organic fertilizer.

Key words: rice-wheat rotation cropland, farmers’ behavior, application of organic fertilizer, influencing factors, Logistic-interpretive structural modeling, Jiangsu Province

胡乃娟, 孙晓玲, 许雅婷, 周子阳, 朱利群. 基于Logistic-ISM模型的农户有机肥施用行为影响因素及层次结构分解[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(6): 1120-1130.

Naijuan HU, Xiaoling SUN, Yating XU, Ziyang ZHOU, Liqun ZHU. Influencing factors of farmers’ organic fertilizer application behavior and their stratification based on Logistic-ISM model[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(6): 1120-1130.

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变量	变量定义及赋值	均值	标准差	预计影响
因变量
是否施用有机肥	施用=“1”,不施用=“0”	0.20	0.40
自变量
年龄	实测数据/岁	61.88	9.99	-
受教育程度	小学以下=“1”,小学=“2”,初中=“3”,高中=“4”,大专及以上=“5”	2.20	0.96	+
现种植土地面积	实测数据/亩	5.44	3.08	-
是否兼业	是=“1”,否=“0”	0.74	0.44	-
有机肥了解程度	从没听说过=“1”,知道但不是很了解=“2”,知道且很了解=“3”	2.09	0.67	+
购买肥料考虑因素：品牌	是=“1”,否=“0”	0.24	0.43	?
购肥料考虑因素：价格	是=“1”,否=“0”	0.47	0.50	-
购肥料考虑因素：施肥后年产量	是=“1”,否=“0”	0.65	0.48	-
购肥料考虑因素：对土壤无害	是=“1”,否=“0”	0.35	0.48	+
购肥料考虑因素：省工	是=“1”,否=“0”	0.40	0.49	-
长期大量低效施用化肥是否造成环境污染的认识	是=“1”,否=“2”,不清楚=“3”	1.81	0.77	-
是否饲养家禽	是=“1”,否=“0”	0.28	0.45	+
农业部门是否针对施肥技术进行过指导	是=“1”,否=“0”	0.19	0.41	+

年份		2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
水稻	面积/千hm²	2248.63	2254.22	2265.67	2271.69	2291.59	2294.82	2275.96
水稻	单产/(kg/亩)	552.67	561.93	565.60	561.13	568.00	561.07	563.87
小麦	面积/千hm²	2112.41	2132.56	2146.93	2159.94	2178.83	2189.85	2180.78
小麦	单产/(kg/亩)	322.93	327.87	342.00	358.13	359.20	340.80	357.93

指标	选项	样本数/个	比例/%	指标	选项	样本数/个	比例/%
是否施用有机肥	是	79	20.15	年龄	≤45岁	17	4.34
是否施用有机肥	否	313	79.85		46~55岁	96	24.49
性别	男	236	60.20		56~65岁	138	35.20
性别	女	156	39.80		66~75岁		106	27.04
是否兼业	是	289	73.72	≥76岁	35	8.93
是否兼业	否	103	26.28	受教育程度	小学以下	101	25.77
耕地面积	<3亩	152	38.78	受教育程度	小学	152	38.78
	3~5亩	142	36.22	初中		105	26.79
	6~8亩	49	12.50	高中		27	6.89
	>8亩	49	12.50	大专及以上		7	1.79

变量	回归系数（B）	检验误差S.E	统计量Wald	自由度df	显著度Sig.	幂值Exp（B）
年龄	-0.005	0.016	0.087	1	0.769	0.995
受教育程度	0.377	0.181	4.328	1	0.037**	1.457
现种植土地面积	0.047	0.049	0.910	1	0.340	1.048
是否兼业	-0.026	0.367	0.005	1	0.943	0.974
有机肥了解程度	1.038	0.257	16.319	1	0.000***	2.824
购买肥料考虑因素：品牌	-0.372	0.429	0.753	1	0.386	0.689
购肥料考虑因素：价格	-0.803	0.342	5.520	1	0.019**	0.448
购肥料考虑因素：施肥后年产量	-0.075	0.330	0.051	1	0.821	0.928
购肥料考虑因素：对土壤无害	0.780	0.350	4.961	1	0.026**	2.182
购肥料考虑因素：省工	-0.981	0.364	7.253	1	0.007***	0.375
长期大量低效施用化肥造成是否环境污染的认识	-0.510	0.211	5.823	1	0.016**	0.601
是否饲养家禽	1.818	0.335	29.366	1	0.000***	6.159
农业部门是否针对施肥技术进行过指导	0.712	0.331	4.635	1	0.031**	2.037
常量	-3.933	1.441	7.446	1	0.006	0.020
–2 Log Likelihood	292.235
Cox & Snell R²	0.229
Sig	0.000

			受教育程度					合计
			小学以下	小学	初中	高中	大专及以上	合计
是否施用有机肥	否	样本/户	87	125	77	21	3	313
	否	比重/%	86.14	82.24	73.33	77.78	42.86	79.85
	是	样本/户	14	27	28	6	4	79
	是	比重/%	13.86	17.76	26.67	22.22	57.14	20.15
合计		样本/户	101	152	105	27	7	392
合计		比重/%	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00