资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 1120-1130.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.06.11
胡乃娟1,2,3(), 孙晓玲1, 许雅婷1, 周子阳1, 朱利群1,3(
)
收稿日期:
2018-10-25
修回日期:
2019-02-26
出版日期:
2019-06-25
发布日期:
2019-06-25
作者简介:
作者简介:胡乃娟,女,河南固始人,博士,助理研究员,主要从事区域农业发展与农田生态研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Naijuan HU1,2,3(), Xiaoling SUN1, Yating XU1, Ziyang ZHOU1, Liqun ZHU1,3(
)
Received:
2018-10-25
Revised:
2019-02-26
Online:
2019-06-25
Published:
2019-06-25
摘要:
有机肥施用对中国农业绿色、可持续发展具有重要作用,但目前在农业生产上,尤其是稻、麦等大田作物生产上施用率却较低。农户作为农业生产的主体,拥有肥料施用的决策权,明确稻麦轮作区农户有机肥施用行为及关键影响因素对促进有机肥在大田作物的施用有重要意义。本文基于江苏省稻麦轮作区4县(区)392户农户调查数据,采用Logistic模型与解释结构模型(ISM),分析了农户在稻麦轮作农田施用有机肥的影响因素及其层次结构。结果表明:农户的受教育程度、对有机肥的了解程度、对长期大量低效施用化肥造成环境污染的认识、购买肥料时考虑对土壤无害、饲养家禽及农业部门针对农业施肥技术进行指导等因素对农户有机肥施用行为有正向影响,购买肥料时考虑价格和省工对农户有机肥施用行为有负向影响。在此基础上,对8个因素进行深层分析,形成了“一路径,三驱动”的层次结构,并提出了相应的有机肥推广政策建议。
胡乃娟, 孙晓玲, 许雅婷, 周子阳, 朱利群. 基于Logistic-ISM模型的农户有机肥施用行为影响因素及层次结构分解[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(6): 1120-1130.
Naijuan HU, Xiaoling SUN, Yating XU, Ziyang ZHOU, Liqun ZHU. Influencing factors of farmers’ organic fertilizer application behavior and their stratification based on Logistic-ISM model[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(6): 1120-1130.
表1
模型变量说明"
变量 | 变量定义及赋值 | 均值 | 标准差 | 预计影响 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
因变量 | |||||
是否施用有机肥 | 施用=“1”,不施用=“0” | 0.20 | 0.40 | ||
自变量 | |||||
年龄 | 实测数据/岁 | 61.88 | 9.99 | - | |
受教育程度 | 小学以下=“1”,小学=“2”,初中=“3”,高中=“4”,大专及以上=“5” | 2.20 | 0.96 | + | |
现种植土地面积 | 实测数据/亩 | 5.44 | 3.08 | - | |
是否兼业 | 是=“1”,否=“0” | 0.74 | 0.44 | - | |
有机肥了解程度 | 从没听说过=“1”,知道但不是很了解=“2”,知道且很了解=“3” | 2.09 | 0.67 | + | |
购买肥料考虑因素:品牌 | 是=“1”,否=“0” | 0.24 | 0.43 | ? | |
购肥料考虑因素:价格 | 是=“1”,否=“0” | 0.47 | 0.50 | - | |
购肥料考虑因素:施肥后年产量 | 是=“1”,否=“0” | 0.65 | 0.48 | - | |
购肥料考虑因素:对土壤无害 | 是=“1”,否=“0” | 0.35 | 0.48 | + | |
购肥料考虑因素:省工 | 是=“1”,否=“0” | 0.40 | 0.49 | - | |
长期大量低效施用化肥是否造成环境污染的认识 | 是=“1”,否=“2”,不清楚=“3” | 1.81 | 0.77 | - | |
是否饲养家禽 | 是=“1”,否=“0” | 0.28 | 0.45 | + | |
农业部门是否针对施肥技术进行过指导 | 是=“1”,否=“0” | 0.19 | 0.41 | + |
表2
2011—2017年江苏省稻麦种植情况"
年份 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
水稻 | 面积/千hm2 | 2248.63 | 2254.22 | 2265.67 | 2271.69 | 2291.59 | 2294.82 | 2275.96 |
单产/(kg/亩) | 552.67 | 561.93 | 565.60 | 561.13 | 568.00 | 561.07 | 563.87 | |
小麦 | 面积/千hm2 | 2112.41 | 2132.56 | 2146.93 | 2159.94 | 2178.83 | 2189.85 | 2180.78 |
单产/(kg/亩) | 322.93 | 327.87 | 342.00 | 358.13 | 359.20 | 340.80 | 357.93 |
表3
被调查农户的基本信息"
指标 | 选项 | 样本数/个 | 比例/% | 指标 | 选项 | 样本数/个 | 比例/% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
是否施用有机肥 | 是 | 79 | 20.15 | 年龄 | ≤45岁 | 17 | 4.34 |
否 | 313 | 79.85 | 46~55岁 | 96 | 24.49 | ||
性别 | 男 | 236 | 60.20 | 56~65岁 | 138 | 35.20 | |
女 | 156 | 39.80 | 66~75岁 | 106 | 27.04 | ||
是否兼业 | 是 | 289 | 73.72 | ≥76岁 | 35 | 8.93 | |
否 | 103 | 26.28 | 受教育程度 | 小学以下 | 101 | 25.77 | |
耕地面积 | <3亩 | 152 | 38.78 | 小学 | 152 | 38.78 | |
3~5亩 | 142 | 36.22 | 初中 | 105 | 26.79 | ||
6~8亩 | 49 | 12.50 | 高中 | 27 | 6.89 | ||
>8亩 | 49 | 12.50 | 大专及以上 | 7 | 1.79 |
表4
农户有机肥施用行为模型估计结果"
变量 | 回归系数(B) | 检验误差S.E | 统计量Wald | 自由度df | 显著度Sig. | 幂值Exp(B) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
年龄 | -0.005 | 0.016 | 0.087 | 1 | 0.769 | 0.995 |
受教育程度 | 0.377 | 0.181 | 4.328 | 1 | 0.037** | 1.457 |
现种植土地面积 | 0.047 | 0.049 | 0.910 | 1 | 0.340 | 1.048 |
是否兼业 | -0.026 | 0.367 | 0.005 | 1 | 0.943 | 0.974 |
有机肥了解程度 | 1.038 | 0.257 | 16.319 | 1 | 0.000*** | 2.824 |
购买肥料考虑因素:品牌 | -0.372 | 0.429 | 0.753 | 1 | 0.386 | 0.689 |
购肥料考虑因素:价格 | -0.803 | 0.342 | 5.520 | 1 | 0.019** | 0.448 |
购肥料考虑因素:施肥后年产量 | -0.075 | 0.330 | 0.051 | 1 | 0.821 | 0.928 |
购肥料考虑因素:对土壤无害 | 0.780 | 0.350 | 4.961 | 1 | 0.026** | 2.182 |
购肥料考虑因素:省工 | -0.981 | 0.364 | 7.253 | 1 | 0.007*** | 0.375 |
长期大量低效施用化肥造成是否环境污染的认识 | -0.510 | 0.211 | 5.823 | 1 | 0.016** | 0.601 |
是否饲养家禽 | 1.818 | 0.335 | 29.366 | 1 | 0.000*** | 6.159 |
农业部门是否针对施肥技术进行过指导 | 0.712 | 0.331 | 4.635 | 1 | 0.031** | 2.037 |
常量 | -3.933 | 1.441 | 7.446 | 1 | 0.006 | 0.020 |
–2 Log Likelihood | 292.235 | |||||
Cox & Snell R2 | 0.229 | |||||
Sig | 0.000 |
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