政府短期干预行为对住宅地价周期波动的影响

doi:10.18402/resci.2019.06.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究政府短期干预对地价周期波动的影响,从理论上提出政府在双重角色下对土地市场进行政策调控,宏观经济环境突变或“经济人”模式的行事原则均造成了政策的短期波动,从而加剧信息不对称,影响市场主体预期,扩大地价波动。通过对全国31个城市进行实证测算,采用k-means聚类方法,根据住宅地价的波动性特征将31个城市分为4类,并选择上海市、北京市进行住宅地价周期波动与政策短期干预之间的回归分析。研究发现,各城市住宅地价波动均展现出“陡升缓降”的非对称结构,但政府短期干预行为对住宅地价周期波动的影响在不同城市中存在明显差异。北京市住宅地价周期波动受政府短期干预影响不显著,而上海市住宅地价周期波动与政府短期干预行为之间呈现显著正向关系,且不同政策影响程度不同,财政政策变化对住宅地价波动影响最大,货币政策影响次之,土地政策影响最小。

关键词: 政府短期干预, 地价, 周期波动, 土地政策, 财政政策, 货币政策

Abstract:

In order to explore the effect of short-term government intervention on the periodic fluctuation of land price, this study put forward that the government takes on dual roles when it makes policy to adjust and control the land market. Meanwhile, change of the macroeconomic environment and behavior of the “economic man” would lead to the short-term volatility of policy, thus aggravating information asymmetry, affecting the expectation of market subjects and increasing land price fluctuations. Based on the empirical estimates and using k-means clustering method, 31 cities in China were divided into four categories according to the characteristics of fluctuation of residential land price. The study selected Beijing and Shanghai, among the 31 cities, for regression analysis between the periodic fluctuation of residential land price and short-term policy intervention. The study found that although the fluctuation of residential land price in all cities showed an asymmetric structure of “sharp rise and slow fall”, the impact of government short-term intervention behavior on the fluctuation of residential land price had obvious differences among these cities. The fluctuation of residential land price in Beijing was not significantly affected by the short-term intervention of the government, while there was a significant positive correlation between the short-term intervention by means of macroeconomic policies of the government and the fluctuation of residential land price in Shanghai. In addition, different policies showed different impact intensities. The change of fiscal policies had the greatest effect on the fluctuation of residential land price, followed by monetary policy and land policy.

Key words: short-term government intervention, land price, periodic fluctuation, land policy, fiscal policy, monetary policy

李瑶瑶, 朱道林, 赵江萌, 杜挺. 政府短期干预行为对住宅地价周期波动的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(6): 1059-1069.

Yaoyao LI, Daolin ZHU, Jiangmeng ZHAO, Ting DU. Impact of short-term government intervention on the periodic fluctuation of residential land price[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(6): 1059-1069.

图/表 9

图1

图2

表1

31个城市住宅地价单位根检验结果"

变量	ADF统计量	临界值/1%	临界值/5%	临界值/10%	平稳性
△ $P beijing$	-7.58（C,T,0)	-4.14	-3.50	-3.18	平稳
△ $P changchun$	-5.98（C,T,0)	-4.14	-3.50	-3.18	平稳
△ $P changsha$	-7.66（C,T,0)	-4.14	-3.50	-3.18	平稳
△ $P chengdu$	-7.36（C,T,0)	-4.14	-3.50	-3.18	平稳
△ $P chongqing$	-6.71（C,T,0)	-4.14	-3.50	-3.18	平稳
……	……	……	……	……	……
△ $P zhengzhou$	-5.36（C,T,9)	-4.14	-3.50	-3.18	平稳

表1

图3

图4

表2

表3

各变量单位根检验结果"

变量	ADF统计量	临界值/1%	临界值/5%	临界值/10%
△ $r p sh$	-2.94(0,0,0)	-2.75	-1.97	-1.60
△ $r f sh$	-2.67(0,0,2)	-2.79	-1.98	-1.60
△ $r m sh$	-2.76(0,0,0)	-2.75	-1.97	-1.60
△ $r l sh$	-4.04(0,0,0)	-2.77	-1.97	-1.60
△ $r p bj$	-3.91(0,0,0)	-2.75	-1.97	-1.60
△ $r f bj$	-4.26(0,0,0)	-2.75	-1.97	-1.60
△ $r m bj$	-3.37(0,0,0)	-2.75	-1.97	-1.60
△ $r l bj$	-3.37(C,0,0)	-4.05	-3.12	-2.70

表3

表4

上海市回归模型估计系数"

变量	系数	标准误差	T统计量	P值
C	0.005	0.017	0.310	0.763
$r f sh$	0.921**	0.409	2.252	0.048
$r m sh$	0.469**	0.195	2.399	0.037
$r l sh$	0.071**	0.030	2.341	0.041
R²	0.712		$R ? 2$	0.626

表4

表5

北京市回归模型估计系数"

变量	系数	标准误差	T统计量	P值
C	-0.095	0.137	-0.696	0.501
$r f bj$	0.772	2.647	0.292	0.776
$r m bj$	-0.432	1.861	-0.233	0.820
$r l bj$	-0.105	0.156	-0.678	0.512
R²	0.109		$R ? 2$	-0.134

表5

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类别	城市	2004Q1—2017Q4 波动性	2004Q1—2008Q4 波动性	2009Q1—2017Q4 波动性	波动性变化（后期-前期）
1类（15）	上海、深圳、天津、成都、福州、贵阳、哈尔滨、海口、济南、昆明、南京、青岛、乌鲁木齐、郑州	0.28	0.43	0.08	-0.35
2类（4）	广州、南昌、武汉、西安	0.16	0.19	0.14	-0.05
3类（8）	北京、长沙、呼和浩特、兰州、南宁、石家庄、太原、西宁	0.16	0.07	0.19	0.12
4类（4）	重庆、长春、大连、宁波	0.09	0.14	0.04	-0.11