资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 1024-1034.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.06.02
收稿日期:
2019-01-21
修回日期:
2019-02-27
出版日期:
2019-06-25
发布日期:
2019-06-25
作者简介:
作者简介:贺玲,女,河北定州人,博士研究生,研究方向为能源经济学。E-mail:
基金资助:
Ling HE(), Qi CUI, Hao CHEN(
), Tao SONG
Received:
2019-01-21
Revised:
2019-02-27
Online:
2019-06-25
Published:
2019-06-25
摘要:
本文基于CHINAGEM模型构建了中国能源经济均衡模型(CGE),建立差异化的多情景政策分析,比较了不同煤炭产能政策及其组合对中国宏观经济和产业部门的影响。研究结果表明:①煤炭产能政策在优化煤炭生产结构的同时,会显著影响其他能源产业和与之有上下游关联的非能源产业产出,不可避免地对宏观经济造成一定的冲击。②降产量政策对煤炭产业结构调整的作用最有效,但对宏观经济的冲击也最大;税收政策对宏观经济的冲击最小,但对煤炭产业结构调整的作用最弱;去产能政策对煤炭产业结构与宏观经济的影响介于降产量政策和税收政策之间。③在实施煤炭产能政策的同时,综合利用税收优惠、产能置换、技术进步等综合政策手段有助于推进煤炭生产结构调整,减缓其对宏观经济的负面影响,最终实现煤炭行业长效发展。本文采用冲击资本投入的方式模拟产能政策的结果更合理,更符合煤炭去产能的经济学含义,该方法同样适用于钢铁、玻璃、水泥等产业去产能的研究。
贺玲, 崔琦, 陈浩, 宋涛. 基于CGE模型的中国煤炭产能政策优化[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(6): 1024-1034.
Ling HE, Qi CUI, Hao CHEN, Tao SONG. Policy optimization of coal production capacity in China based on a computable general equilibrium model[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(6): 1024-1034.
表1
煤炭产能政策情景设置"
情景组 | 情景设计及变量的冲击 | 政策含义 |
---|---|---|
降产量政策 | ||
S1 | 非优质煤炭产量降低9% | 276工作日 |
S2 | 非优质煤炭产量降低9%,优质煤炭减税2% | 276工作日+税收优惠 |
S3 | 非优质煤炭产量降低9%,优质煤炭减税2%,优质煤炭生产效率提高2% | 276工作日+税收优惠+技术进步 |
税收政策 | ||
S4 | 非优质煤炭加征4% | 税收倒逼 |
S5 | 非优质煤炭加征4%,优质煤炭减税2% | 差异税制 |
S6 | 非优质煤炭加征4%,优质煤炭减税2%,优质煤炭生产效率提高2% | 差异税制+技术进步 |
去产能政策 | ||
S7 | 非优质煤炭产能降低9% | 去产能 |
S8 | 非优质煤炭产能降低9%,优质煤炭产能增加6% | 产能置换 |
S9 | 非优质煤炭产能降低9%,优质煤炭产能增加6%,优质煤炭生产效率提高2% | 产能置换+技术进步 |
表2
不同煤炭产能政策情景对宏观经济的影响"
降产量政策 | 税收政策 | 去产能政策 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | S7 | S8 | S9 | |||
实际GDP | -0.51 | -0.50 | -0.48 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.18 | -0.14 | -0.12 | ||
居民消费 | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.24 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.05 | ||
投资 | -0.10 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.02 | ||
就业量 | -0.30 | -0.29 | -0.27 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.12 | -0.09 | -0.08 | ||
CPI | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | ||
名义工资 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | ||
资本租金 | -0.55 | -0.52 | -0.49 | -0.20 | -0.16 | -0.14 | -0.11 | -0.09 | -0.06 |
表3
不同煤炭产能政策情景对能源产业产出的影响"
降产量政策 | 税收政策 | 去产能政策 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | S7 | S8 | S9 | |||
优质煤炭 | 0.40 | 1.59 | 2.88 | 0.05 | 1.23 | 2.51 | 0.19 | 2.20 | 3.45 | ||
非优质煤炭 | - | - | - | -2.31 | -2.32 | -2.34 | -3.25 | -3.28 | -3.30 | ||
石油和天然气 | -0.42 | -0.41 | -0.39 | -0.07 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.17 | -0.13 | -0.11 | ||
石油加工 | -0.34 | -0.33 | -0.31 | -0.08 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.13 | -0.10 | -0.09 | ||
电力和热力 | -1.73 | -1.67 | -1.58 | -0.38 | -0.31 | -0.23 | -0.67 | -0.53 | -0.45 | ||
燃气 | -0.45 | -0.43 | -0.41 | -0.09 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.18 | -0.14 | -0.12 | ||
焦炭 | -1.98 | -1.91 | -1.81 | -0.40 | -0.33 | -0.24 | -0.91 | -0.72 | -0.62 |
表4
不同煤炭产能政策情景对非能源产业产出的影响"
降产量政策 | 税收政策 | 去产能政策 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | S7 | S8 | S9 | |||
基础化学原料 | -1.93 | -1.87 | -1.77 | -0.33 | -0.28 | -0.18 | -0.82 | -0.64 | -0.55 | ||
铁合金产品 | -1.22 | -1.18 | -1.12 | -0.23 | -0.19 | -0.13 | -0.55 | -0.43 | -0.37 | ||
有色金属矿采选产品 | -1.11 | -1.08 | -1.02 | -0.18 | -0.15 | -0.10 | -0.46 | -0.36 | -0.31 | ||
有色金属及其合金铸件 | -1.10 | -1.06 | -1.01 | -0.18 | -0.15 | -0.10 | -0.46 | -0.36 | -0.31 | ||
其他非金属矿物品 | -1.03 | -1.00 | -0.95 | -0.18 | -0.15 | -0.10 | -0.44 | -0.34 | -0.30 | ||
黑色金属矿采选产品 | -0.96 | -0.92 | -0.87 | -0.20 | -0.16 | -0.12 | -0.46 | -0.36 | -0.31 | ||
铁路运输 | -0.95 | -0.90 | -0.85 | -0.24 | -0.20 | -0.15 | -0.34 | -0.27 | -0.22 | ||
化肥 | -0.87 | -0.84 | -0.80 | -0.13 | -0.11 | -0.07 | -0.35 | -0.27 | -0.23 | ||
玻璃和玻璃制品 | -0.86 | -0.84 | -0.79 | -0.14 | -0.12 | -0.07 | -0.36 | -0.28 | -0.24 | ||
合成材料 | -0.85 | -0.82 | -0.78 | -0.14 | -0.12 | -0.08 | -0.36 | -0.28 | -0.24 | ||
钢压延产品 | -0.77 | -0.74 | -0.70 | -0.18 | -0.15 | -0.11 | -0.39 | -0.31 | -0.27 | ||
金属制品 | -0.77 | -0.74 | -0.70 | -0.15 | -0.13 | -0.09 | -0.36 | -0.28 | -0.25 | ||
专用化学产品 | -0.77 | -0.74 | -0.70 | -0.17 | -0.14 | -0.10 | -0.38 | -0.30 | -0.27 | ||
钢、铁及其铸件 | -0.76 | -0.73 | -0.69 | -0.18 | -0.14 | -0.11 | -0.39 | -0.31 | -0.27 | ||
其他电气机械和器材 | -0.76 | -0.74 | -0.70 | -0.11 | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.30 | -0.23 | -0.20 |
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