资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 897-907.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.05.07

• 碳排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国建筑业碳排放时空特征及分省贡献

范建双(), 周琳   

  1. 浙江工业大学管理学院,杭州 310023
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-17 修回日期:2018-06-24 出版日期:2019-05-25 发布日期:2019-05-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:范建双,男,辽宁盖州市人,副教授,博士,研究方向为城镇化与碳排放绩效。E-mail: fjshmy@zjut.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(71774142);教育部人文社科项目(17YJAZH022);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LY16G030029)

Spatiotemporal distribution and provincial contribution decomposition of carbon emissions for the construction industry in China

Jianshuang FAN(), Lin ZHOU   

  1. School of Management, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China
  • Received:2018-04-17 Revised:2018-06-24 Online:2019-05-25 Published:2019-05-25

摘要:

建筑业作为中国快速城镇化进程中的重要支柱产业,为国家经济发展做出重要贡献的同时,也存在高能耗和高排放等问题,减少建筑业碳排放对中国实现节能减排目标具有重要意义。本文首先在对中国30个省(市、自治区)建筑业碳排放量进行核算的基础上,运用空间自相关和核密度函数方法对其时空特征进行刻画和分析,并进一步采用乘积式对数平均迪式指数分解(M—LMDI)方法对中国建筑业碳排放量进行因素分解。研究结果表明:①中国建筑业碳排放总体上呈现上升趋势,在全国范围内具有空间正相关性,且表现出空间集聚特征,建筑业碳排放集聚中心在研究期内逐渐往中南部地区转移,空间集聚效应越来越显著;②中国30个省(市、区)建筑业碳排放在空间上存在显著差异,且区域间差距不断扩大,存在两极分化的现象;③1997—2015年中国30个省(市、区)建筑业碳排放量增加了115%,其中建筑业发展水平和建筑业从业人口规模是建筑业碳排放增加的主要贡献因素,分别导致建筑业碳排放增加106.52%、85.43%;相反,建筑业能源消费强度对建筑业碳排放具有抑制作用,使碳排放减少了77.33%;④从分省(市、区)的角度来看,对建筑业碳排放下降贡献最大的是黑龙江省和海南省,对建筑业碳排放增加贡献最大的是山东省和浙江省。

关键词: 建筑业, 碳排放, 空间自相关, 核密度函数, 因素分解, 分省贡献, 中国

Abstract:

As an important pillar industry in the rapid urbanization process of China, the construction industry has been facing the problems of high energy consumption and high emissions, and reducing carbon emissions in the construction industry is of great significance for China to achieve its goal of energy conservation. Based on the accounting of construction carbon emissions of 30 provinces in China’s mainland, this article describes and analyzes their spatiotemporal characteristics using the spatial autocorrelation and kernel density function, and the multiplicative logarithmic mean Divisa index (M-LMDI) method to decompose the contribution of energy consumption of construction industry and other related variables for 30 provinces of China’s mainland to national carbon emissions. The results show that: (1) Construction carbon emissions in China showed an upward trend, with positive spatial correlation across the country and spatial agglomeration. Centers of construction carbon emissions gradually moved to the central and southern regions, and the spatial agglomeration effect became increasingly more clear. (2) There were significant differences in construction carbon emissions in the 30 provinces, the gap between regions has continued to expand, and polarization has aggravated; (3) In 1997—2015, construction carbon emissions increased by 115% in the 30 provinces, and the development level of the construction industry and the population employed in the industry were the major contributors to the increase in construction carbon emissions, which led to an increase in construction carbon emissions by 106.52% and 85.43% respectively. On the contrary, the intensity of energy consumption in the construction industry has an constraining effect on construction carbon emissions, reducing carbon emissions by 77.33%; (4) The top two provinces that made the largest contribution to the decline in construction carbon emissions were Heilongjiang and Hainan Provinces, and the bottom two provinces that made the largest contribution to the increase of construction carbon emissions were Shandong and Zhejiang Provinces.

Key words: construction, carbon emissions, spatial autocorrelation, kernel density function, factor decomposition, provincial contribution, China