资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 884-896.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.05.06

• 碳排放 • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑碳排放成本的中国农业绿色生产率变化

展进涛1,2(), 徐钰娇1, 葛继红1,2()   

  1. 1. 南京农业大学 经济管理学院,南京 210095
    2. 南京农业大学 中国粮食安全研究中心,南京 210095
  • 收稿日期:2018-04-11 修回日期:2018-08-31 出版日期:2019-05-25 发布日期:2019-05-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:展进涛,博士,教授,博导,主要研究方向为农业科技政策。E-mail: jintao.zhan@njau.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    中央高校业务经费项目(SKCX2017001);国家社会科学基金重大项目(11&ZD046);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

Change in agricultural green productivity in China considering the cost of carbon emissions

Jintao ZHAN1,2(), Yujiao XU1, Jihong GE1,2()   

  1. 1. College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
    2. Research Center for China Food Security, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
  • Received:2018-04-11 Revised:2018-08-31 Online:2019-05-25 Published:2019-05-25

摘要:

绿色发展将成为中国未来农业增长的重点内容,衡量农业绿色生产率有利于正确判断当前绿色发展的阶段特征。本文引入碳排放交易理论,将考虑了碳排放成本的农业绿色GDP作为产出,将农业生产中的氮磷流失作为一种要素投入,运用参数随机前沿函数模型(SFA)测算并分析了中国农业2000—2015年的省(市、区)绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)变化指数,并与传统全要素生产率(TFP)进行了比较分析。结果表明,研究期内中国农业GTFP年均下降0.14%,主要因2008/2009年前绿色技术的“退步”造成;从时间趋势和空间分布呈现明显的波动性特征以及地区之间的梯度性特征。此外,农业TFP变化指数优于GTFP变化指数,年均增长0.02%,主要得益于技术进步驱动,但传统技术效率处于年均下降状态。改变重产出的研发理念、加强农业绿色技术研发,进而提高传统投入要素的技术效率水平是中国未来提高农业绿色生产率的关键。

关键词: 农业绿色生产率, 碳排放成本, 氮流失, 磷流失, 随机前沿分析(SFA), 中国

Abstract:

Green development will become the key component of China’s future agricultural growth. Measuring green productivity of agriculture is conducive to identifying its current development stage. By introducing carbon emissions trading theory and taking agricultural green GDP considering carbon emission cost as output, nitrogen and phosphorus losses as an input factor, and using parameter stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) model, this study calculated and analyzed the provincial-level green total factor productivity (GTFP) change index of China’s agricultural sector from 2000 to 2015, then compared it with the traditional total factor productivity (TFP). The results show that the average annual decline of China’s agricultural GTFP was 0.14% during the study period, mainly due to the “retrogression” of environmental technologies before 2008/2009. The temporal trend fluctuated and the spatial distribution varied between regions. In addition, the index of TFP in agriculture was superior to GTFP’s, with an average annual increase of 0.02%,mainly due to technological progress, but the average traditional technology efficiency is declining. The key to improving the green productivity of agriculture in China in the future is to shift the focus of research and development investment away from overemphasizing output, strengthen the research and development of agricultural environmental technologies, and improve the technical efficiency of the traditional input factors.

Key words: agricultural green productivity, cost of carbon emissions, nitrogen loss, phosphorus loss, stochastic frontier analysis, China