资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 860-871.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.05.04

• 能源与矿产资源 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国稀土市场供需非均衡性分析与预警

孙菁靖(), 雷玉桃()   

  1. 华南理工大学经济与贸易学院,广州 510006
  • 收稿日期:2018-09-15 修回日期:2019-03-09 出版日期:2019-05-25 发布日期:2019-05-25
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:孙菁靖,女,江西上饶人,博士生,主要研究方向为资源经济。E-mail:sjjsophia@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    广州市哲学社会科学“十三五”规划课题(2018GZGJ11);广东省自然科学基金项目(2017A030313441);华南理工大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目(x2jmC2180190)

Non-equilibrium and early warning research on the supply and demand of China’s rare earth market

Jingjing SUN(), Yutao LEI()   

  1. School of Economics and Commerce, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
  • Received:2018-09-15 Revised:2019-03-09 Online:2019-05-25 Published:2019-05-25

摘要:

供需非均衡问题是影响中国稀土市场良性运行的主要因素之一。本文通过延伸非瓦尔拉斯均衡理论及模型的应用领域,对中国稀土市场的有效供需开展非均衡性分析,并建立双曲线型聚合方程,使用2000—2016年中国稀土市场供需、工业企业和采矿业宏观基本面年度数据进行实证分析,探究了长期以来中国稀土市场供需不平衡状况的根本症结。研究表明,中国稀土市场具有的结构分散、买方垄断、价格偏低、黑稀土频现以及政策干预性强等特点,是其呈现非均衡性的重要成因。基于灰色关联诊断得出:稀土价格、生产技术、生产成本、企业收入、企业负债、宏观政策和工业发展状况等是影响稀土有效供需的敏感因素。从非均衡度测算值看,稀土市场供需的非均衡变化趋势大致为:从有效供给过剩转变为有效需求略旺。依据预警线设置,稀土市场较多年份呈现35%以上的供大于求重警状态。本文结论可为促进中国稀土市场均衡化发展提供一定的理论依据和决策支撑。

关键词: 稀土市场, 非均衡理论, 有效供给, 有效需求, 预警, 中国

Abstract:

China’s rare earth plays a mainstay role in the world, but there are few systematic studies on the non-equilibrium state of supply and demand in the market. This study extended the application of non-equilibrium theory and its model to analyze the non-equilibrium state between effective supply and effective demand of the rare earth resources market in China, establishing hyperbolic equations and conducting empirical analysis by using the 2000-2016 macro-level data on China’s rare earth market supply and demand, industrial enterprises and mining industry, and finally analyzing the crux of long-term imbalances between supply and demand. The results show that China’s rare earth market is characterized by decentralization, buyer monopoly, low prices, rampant smuggling, and strong policy intervention, which are important causes of its non-equilibrium condition. Based on grey relational analysis, rare earth price, production technology and cost, enterprise income and debt, macroeconomic policy, and industrial development are sensitive factors of rare earth’s effective supply and demand. Non-equilibrium degree calculation results indicate that the non-equilibrium trend of supply and demand in rare earth market is changing from oversupply to excessive demand. Based on the early-warning threshold values, in many years the market was in a serious warning state where supply exceeded demand by more than 35%. The conclusions may provide some basis for warning and decision support for promoting a balanced development of China’s rare earth market.

Key words: rare earth market, non-equilibrium theory, effective supply, effective demand, early warning, China