资源科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 775-789.doi: 10.18402/resci.2019.04.14
梁缘毅1, 吕爱锋2,3
收稿日期:
2018-11-23
修回日期:
2018-12-12
发布日期:
2019-04-25
通讯作者:
国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0401307); 中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010201)
作者简介:
梁缘毅,男,重庆市人,硕士生,主要从事水资源安全管理研究。E-mail: liangyuanyi0804@qq.com
LIANG Yuanyi1, LV Aifeng2,3
Received:
2018-11-23
Revised:
2018-12-12
Published:
2019-04-25
摘要: 水资源安全风险评价是对水资源进行风险管理的重要基础。本文以水资源安全内涵为基础,结合灾害系统论和风险理论,构建了水资源安全风险评价指标体系和水资源安全风险评价模型,并且采用主观AHP(层次分析法)和客观熵权法结合离差平方和最优组合赋权法进行确权,结合近年相关数据指标计算出各省级研究单元的水资源安全风险值,并根据自然断点法划分极高、高、中、低、极低5个风险等级,最后将极高风险、高风险、以及中等风险地区的水资源安全风险类型,划分为水量短缺风险、水质污染风险、干旱风险和洪涝风险。研究结果显示:水量短缺型风险主要分布在京津冀地区、辽宁、山东、河南、宁夏和甘肃地区;水质污染型风险有上海、辽宁、京津冀地区、江苏、吉林、山西、河南和广西地区;干旱型风险有黑龙江、陕西、甘肃、海南、新疆、内蒙和宁夏地区;洪涝型风险有广东和福建地区。针对不同风险类型提出相应的风险防控措施,从而为全国水资源安全管理提供科学有效的依据。
梁缘毅, 吕爱锋. 中国水资源安全风险评价[J]. 资源科学, 2019, 41(4): 775-789.
LIANG Yuanyi, LV Aifeng. Risk assessment of water resource security in China[J]. Resources Science, 2019, 41(4): 775-789.
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